Thursday’s MLB DFS action is another travel day, and weather has already led to four postponements. Today the featured slates lock at 1:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, there are several Stokastic tools that can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks player projections and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay offense against the hapless Nationals and southpaw Patrick Corbin. Now onto our MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman at Kansas City Royals — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $49
Among the three remaining featured slate games, one is in Coors Field with two shaky pitchers, which will consolidate popularity on Kevin Gausman, Lance Lynn and Chris Sale. This is the 11th MLB campaign for Gausman, who is coming off the best two year stretch of his career, after also leveling up during the 2020 pandemic season.
Over his last 65 starts, 33 for San Francisco in 2021, before joining Toronto last year, the 32-year-old has logged 372.2 innings with a 3.02 ERA mirroring his 3.02 xFIP. The veteran righty also has dramatically cut down on home runs, allowing just 0.85 per nine innings during this timeframe, compared to 1.26 per nine for the first eight seasons of his career. Finally, the strikeouts have been steady at 10.6 per nine, giving him access to ample fantasy goodness.
Through six games, Kansas City has a league low 14 runs scored with a .155/.254/.265 triple-slash line which is the worst in the league. So far they have been league average with strikeouts, but that is hardly a silver lining compared to the other metrics.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Strider vs. San Diego Padres — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $57
Spencer Strider stands out as the top option, among the four choices on the late slate. The 25-year-old cruised through the Nationals in Washington on Saturday, striking out nine in half a dozen innings of work. San Diego will be coming at him with at least four left-handed bats tonight, though it would seem that the young fireballer is up for the challenge.
Across 300 career opposite-handed matchups in The Show, Strider has a wicked 32.7% strikeout rate with just 0.48 home runs allowed per nine innings. These figures are even more impressive in 260 matchups against fellow righties, with a 43.5% strikeout rate and 0.56 home run rate.
This work has been both as a starter and as a reliever, but do not let that diminish your admiration for the budding star. We will not be alone in the assessment that Strider is the top pitching target, so for differentiation, feel free to take a couple of the better San Diego hitters against him and hope that they run into one, or make some hay against the bullpen.
Secondary Targets (SP2s on DraftKings and Lottery Tickets on FanDuel)
RHP Lance Lynn vs. San Francisco Giants: In his first appearance, Lynn missed a quality start by one out against the Astros in Houston. In this matchup he notched six strikeouts, though he also survived 10 fly ball outs. The going should be a little easier today against the Giants on a cold and blustery afternoon. There is a stiff 15-20 mph breeze out to left field, though game time temperatures are not expected to crack 50 degrees, which will aid the pitchers. Lynn got off to a slow start last season after an injury, but he righted the ship and was excellent over the couple months – something that was missed by most casual gamers.
LHP Chris Sale at Detroit Tigers: Sale was exposed by Baltimore in his first start, ceding a trio of round-trippers and seven earned runs in just three innings. He did strike out half a dozen hitters, but injuries have clearly taken their toll on the former ace. Today will mark only the 13th appearance for Sale since the end of the 2019 season. The southpaw celebrated his 34th trip around the sun last week and the only thing in his favor today is the matchup. Detroit is averaging only three runs per game, while striking out the fifth most times so far this season. Given the projected popularity for Sale, it does make sense to be under the field in tournaments and even look for a couple of Detroit hitters for additional leverage against the field in some lineups.
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MLB Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Coors Field Extravaganza — 11.2 implied runs
Most of the time, Coors Field will not be detailed in this article series as it is generally understood at this point to be the default target for offenses. However, things are rather thin with all of the postponed games, so why not have a little fun looking at this matchup?
Since the beginning of last year, Josiah Gray has allowed 41 home runs in 153.2 innings. That is eight more than Gerrit Cole who has logged 59.1 more innings and typically challenges hitters with his tremendous strikeout ability. Heck, it is also eight more than German Marquez who has Coors Field as his home park and has logged 39.1 more innings than Gray in this stretch.
On Saturday, Gray allowed three home runs to the Braves, while managing just four strikeouts across five frames. Lefties have had the most success against the former Dodger during this stretch with a .408 wOBA and a .335 ISO in 290 plate appearances. Right-handers are also finding success in the power department as well with a .202 ISO in 381 plate appearances.
C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon form a nice right-lefty duo in the heart of the order with long time Rocky, Charlie Blackmon healthy at the moment and newcomer Jurickson Profar likely getting leadoff duties with his switch-hitting skill set. Kris Bryant is also on the short list of options after an injury-riddled campaign last year.
This is likely to be a well-travelled path tonight, so be sure to find differentiation at other lineup spots in large field tournaments… or be prepared to hold hands with countless others as you cross the finish line.
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Lefty Kyle Freeland is not a bad pitcher, he is just a crafty lefty, trying to survive with a daunting home park. Since his disastrous 2019 season that saw him sent down to the minors – where he was clobbered for an 8.80 ERA over six starts spanning 29.2 innings – the 30-year-old has righted the ship. To his credit, he has just a 1.16 home run per nine rate in 68 starts over the subsequent three seasons, though his 6.85 strikeout rate does not do him many favors.
Make no mistake, this Washington offense is bad – so bad that most of the projected starters have been assigned sub-$3,000 salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This means one way of finding differentiation on this slate will be to leave upwards of $1,000 in salary cap on the table.
Joey Meneses was a bright spot for the Nationals last season, however, a 30-year-old rookie who had a couple of good months is not something to be afraid of… and he is the Washington cleanup hitter. The rest of the lineup is either well-travelled veterans such as Jeimer Candelario and Michael Chavis, or complete unknowns like Alex Call, Stone Garrett and C.J. Abrams.
Lane Thomas has potential from the leadoff spot and catcher Keibert Ruiz is arguably the “best” hitter on the team, but this duo will be well-represented in the afternoon tournaments.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers at RHP Merrill Kelly — 4.7 implied runs
The Dodgers will be a popular stack tonight with only four teams on the docket. The Chase Field roof will be open so fans can enjoy the pleasant mid-70s temperatures. Merrill Kelly has been a solid starter since making his MLB debut in 2019 in his age-30 season.
Kelly had one heck of a winding path before getting to The Show, despite being drafted out of high school (37th round, 2016), after two seasons at community college (22nd round, 2009) and then a final time after a season with Arizona State (10th round, 2010). He worked his way through the Tampa Bay organization for five seasons, though he never made it beyond a stop with the Triple-A Durham Bulls. He next took his talents to Korea, where after four seasons with the SK Wyverns in the KBO, Arizona decided to give him a shot.
Kelly tends to limit power, with a 1.02 home runs per nine inning rate over the last couple of seasons, though he has a sub-20% strikeout rate and can issue more walks than DFS gamers would like to see. His 40%ish ground ball rate helps keep him out of trouble most games, but it is going to be a tightrope act surviving the Dodgers offense tonight.
Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Chris Taylor have all had sustained success against Kelly and they should be the main hitters comprising Dodger stacks. J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and James Outman are also intriguing. The best strategy is to look for duos and trios tonight and not worry as much about a full stack. In his 98 career starts, Kelly has ceded more than five runs in a single game only 10 times.
Final Thoughts for Thursday, April 6
April showers have resulted in three East Coast games (Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia) being pre-emptively postponed today, along with Minnesota looking at temperatures below freezing and with potential snow joining the bitter cold. Atlanta is looking at scattered thundershowers this evening, though as long as nothing sits atop the stadium for hours, the game should be fine.
Be sure to get all the updated information for MLB DFS picks on the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, starting at 12 p.m. ET and brought to you by Bet365.
