MLB DFS Value & Advice: Lots of Stacking Options with Dodgers (April 7)

The MLB DFS slate on Friday presents a good opportunity for daily fantasy players with a multitude of afternoon games. Keeping a close eye on injuries and matchups that may result in high-scoring games is crucial. This article will provide an in-depth breakdown of each game and identify potential MLB DFS value picks.

MLB DFS Value and Advice | April 7

Early Slate

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

There is not much interest in the pitching matchup between Clarke Schmidt and Dean Kremer, as both pitchers have difficult matchups. Schmidt offers strikeout potential but has a relatively tough matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. However, both stacks are appealing. The Yankees have the second-highest top stack percentage and the second-most projected ownership. Meanwhile, the Orioles are middle of the pack in both categories.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The pitching matchup between Hunter Greene and Zack Wheeler features two very talented pitchers. Greene has plenty of strikeout potential and is just $7,600 on DraftKings, where two pitchers are needed. He has the second-highest top-2 pitcher percentage. Meanwhile, Wheeler is the most likely to be a top-2 pitcher. Greene struck out 30.9% of hitters last season, while Wheeler struck out 26.9%. The Phillies bats are interesting in tournaments, as Greene gives up power and hard contact when opposing hitters are able to put the ball in play. He allowed a .182 xISO to righties and a .166 xISO to lefties last season. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos are hitting first through fourth and can do a ton of damage.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians

There is not much interest in either pitcher between Logan Gilbert and Aaron Civale. Both are good pitchers, but their matchups are less than ideal. Both stacks are projected to go a bit under-owned, but neither is particularly likely to succeed. They are decent tournament stacks but not top priorities.

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

The pitching matchup between Jose Urquidy and Sonny Gray is similar to the Seattle and Cleveland game. Urquidy is currently projected for more ownership than Gray, and it’s not entirely clear why. While he has the better matchup, he only struck out 19.7% of hitters last season compared to 24% for Gray. Urquidy has a 13.3% chance of being a top-2 pitcher on the slate, while Gray has a 15.5% chance at lower ownership for only $200 more. The offenses are similar to Seattle and Cleveland in that they are projected to go a bit under-owned, but they also have relatively difficult matchups.

Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Lucas Giolito is a strong pitching option at $8,900 on DraftKings. He was not as dominant last season as in previous years, but he still struck out 25.4% of hitters and had a 3.66 xFIP, and now he is facing one of the worst teams in baseball. The Pirates offer MLB DFS value as a stack, so they will pull some ownership despite the difficult matchup. The White Sox currently have the highest top stack percentage on the slate, and they’re also projected to go slightly under-owned. Rich Hill allowed a .182 xISO to righties last season, and the White Sox are likely to have eight right-handed hitters in their lineup. Tim Anderson and Luis Robert in particular stand out at the top of the order. Jake Burger offers upside at a very inexpensive salary in the middle of the lineup as well.

Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants

Brad Keller is pretty good at limiting power, but he isn’t a good strikeout pitcher, and that limits his DFS appeal. Meanwhile, Alex Cobb is an extremely good pitcher when healthy, and he is inexpensive today against Kansas City at only $7,400 on DraftKings. He only threw 76 pitches in the season opener, so he is likely to be a bit more limited than some other options, but the salary helps to make up for that. He struck out 23.9% of hitters and had a 2.89 xFIP last season. The Royals’ 3.3 implied run total is higher only than the Reds’ 2.9 total against Wheeler. The Giants are third in top stack percentage but first in ownership, as they offer MLB DFS value in addition to one of the highest totals on the board. They’re a strong stack, but be aware of the ownership across the rest of lineups.

Main Slate

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves

Neither starting pitcher in this matchup looks particularly appealing for DFS purposes, with both teams likely to stack against them. Nick Martinez did well to limit power last season, but his low strikeout rate makes him vulnerable to the Braves power hitters. On the other hand, Jared Shuster is a young, unknown commodity who struggled in his MLB debut after an up-and-down season in Double-A and Triple-A last year. The Padres have plenty of power and upside from both sides of the plate, making them an attractive stack option.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Jack Flaherty is a high-risk, high-reward SP2 option at a modest price tag, with his strikeout rate varying greatly depending on his recent performances. Meanwhile, Brandon Woodruff is one of the top pitchers in the league, coming off a season where he struck out over 30% of hitters and had a low 3.14 xFIP. The Brewers offense is inexpensive, but their matchup against Flaherty leaves them with limited upside. The Cardinals offense is also unimpressive, so neither team stands out as a must-stack option.

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies

Coors Field may have failed DFS players in yesterday’s game, but this matchup presents a prime opportunity to run it back. MacKenzie Gore is a highly regarded prospect with a high strikeout rate, but his tendency to walk batters makes him a risky option at Coors Field. Jose Urena, on the other hand, has a low strikeout rate and high walk rate, making him a prime target for the Nationals offense. Washington stacks are projected to be the highest-scoring stack of the night and offer significant savings compared to other top stacks.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels

Both starting pitchers in this matchup are talented, but neither stands out as a must-play option. Both teams have dangerous lineups, but the Angels lineup has more weaknesses compared to the Blue Jays. Either stack has upside in tournaments, but the matchups are not ideal, so neither team is a priority in DFS lineups. Both are also projected to receive less ownership than they deserve.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Clayton Kershaw is one of the top pitchers on the slate, coming off a season where he struck out nearly 28% of hitters and had an impressive 2.83 xFIP. Madison Bumgarner, on the other hand, struggled mightily last season, with a low strikeout rate and high ISO allowed to right-handed hitters. The Dodgers have a lineup full of righties, making them a prime stacking option for this matchup. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez stand out the most, but the Dodgers offer plenty of stacking options throughout their lineup.

Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].