Coming off a massive 14-game NBA DFS slate on Wednesday, we’re back with only two games on Thursday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening.
NBA DFS Picks – Contrarian Plays For Today: November 9
Contrarian Stud — Dejounte Murray: Atlanta Hawks-Orlando Magic
Good, contrarian pieces are often hard to find on two-game slates, and tonight is no exception. Any player who projects remotely well is going to get ownership and that’s just the nature of the beast when dealing with slates of this size. That said, there are still some micro edges to be had in regards to ownership, with Dejounte Murray emerging as the top contrarian stud.
While Murray’s 22.70% ownership projection might have been chalky on a slate like last night’s, there are 14 other players projected to be more popular than him tonight. Despite there being a clear lack of spend-up options, Murray is getting left behind the ownership trail a bit as Trae Young and Tyrese Haliburton are both expected to get a lot of love. As of this writing, our tools have Murray projected to be optimal 32.50% of the time this slate plays out, making him one of the highest-graded leverage plays on the board. Although there’s surely opportunity cost in rostering Murray at $8,200, he’s a great way to get a little bit different in tournaments without sacrificing any upside.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Jalen Suggs: Atlanta Hawks-Orlando Magic
Sticking with Atlanta-Orlando in a game that looks juicy from a DFS perspective, Jalen Suggs is the clear top contrarian mid-tier piece tonight. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 25.8 DraftKings points per game, Suggs has been really solid since a disappointing opening night against the Rockets. Take that game out of the equation (Orlando won by 30) and Suggs is all of a sudden averaging close to 28 DraftKings points per game, making his $5,600 price tag look a lot more tantalizing.
Similar to Murray, Suggs isn’t low owned in the sense that no one will be on him, but he’s clearly under-owned based on our tools. Currently ranked as the highest leveraged play on the slate, Suggs is only projected to be in 17.50% of lineups tonight. Compare that to his optimal percentage of 28.00% and it’s no surprise why he looks so good in our Boom/Bust tool. With Markelle Fultz potentially back in the fold it will be interesting to see where ownership actually lands, but as of now, Suggs looks like the best differentiator on the entire slate.
Contrarian Value — Jae Crowder: Milwaukee Bucks-Indiana Pacers
As DraftKings strives to do a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there continues to be a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $5,000. As such, we’ve had to dumpster dive a bit for contrarian value, and that theme continues tonight with long-time NBA veteran Jae Crowder. Stepping into the starting lineup for Khris Middleton, Crowder was actually projected to be a popular value play last night until better value started to emerge from a plethora of other teams. With Middleton back tonight, Crowder is falling through the cracks in a big way with only Suggs grading out as a better leverage play.
Priced at the flat $4,500 on DraftKings, Crowder is projected to be optimal 18.80% of the time this slate plays out. With the field only getting to him at 8.40%, however, he stands out as a great way to get different in tournaments. While no one will argue that Crowder isn’t more solid than spectacular, he’s getting good playing time right now and there just aren’t many viable value plays to speak of on this slate.
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