There are 11 games on tonight’s NBA slate, which means that there are plenty of options for paying up and likely plenty of value to do so. The value options at the time of writing are somewhat limited, but it is very likely that there will be a lot more to work with by the time the games start. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s take a deeper dive into the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS high-priced studs and see if someone can challenge Nikola Jokic for the top spot in DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
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NBA DFS Studs: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid
Stud No. 1 – Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,500/ FanDuel: $12,800
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 70.5/ FanDuel: 67.3
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 18.4%/ FanDuel: 9.6%
Nikola Jokic is the highest projected player on tonight’s slate, as usual. He is facing the Pelicans, who have played at a top-10 pace and have a middle-of-the-pack defensive rating this year. The Nuggets will once again be without Jamal Murray, which has been a much bigger benefit for Jokic this season than it was last year. In 2022-23, Jokic averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute, a 27.7% usage rate and 42.8% assist rate in 10 games without Murray. He averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute, a 27.2% usage rate and 45.9% assist rate in the 59 games he played alongside Murray. Last year there was not much of an increase in per-minute production in the Murray-less games.
The biggest benefit was that Jokic’s floor was higher because, if the Nuggets happen to have a game where Jokic takes a backseat to someone offensively, Murray is usually the culprit. This season, however, has been drastically different through four games without Murray. In those four games, Jokic has maintained a 44.9% assist rate that is similar to last year’s. The big change, however, has been a massive increase in usage. He has a 38.3% usage rate in the games he has played without Murray compared to 27.7% last year, and as a result he has produced 2.03 DraftKings points per minute. While it is likely that Jokic’s 2.03 fantasy points per minute and 38.3% usage rate will decrease somewhat over a larger sample, he has clearly taken on an even bigger scoring role without Murray this season. He is the top priority stud on this slate.
Stud No. 2 – Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,400/ FanDuel: $12,200
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 60.8/ FanDuel: 60.0
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 10.9%/ FanDuel: 3.5%
Embiid is questionable tonight, but he is a strong play if he suits up. Embiid has averaged 1.76 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a 36.4% usage rate, 18.4% rebounding rate and 29.5% assist rate in 34.1 minutes per game. Atlanta is in the top 5 in pace and bottom 10 in defensive rating, so Embiid is likely to produce at an above-average per-minute rate tonight. He is no Jokic, but he isn’t a bad consolation prize at lower ownership and a less expensive salary.
Stud No. 3 – Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,100/ FanDuel: $10,800
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 56.2/ FanDuel: 55.5
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 4.2%/ FanDuel: 12.9%
Antetokounmpo is questionable tonight in a favorable matchup against the Hornets. Charlotte has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NBA while allowing the most points per 100 possessions. The issue for Antetokounmpo is that he is priced relatively close to Jokic and Embiid, and he doesn’t offer the same level of production on average. In eight games played alongside Damian Lillard, Antetokounmpo has produced 1.45 DraftKings points per minute and has a 34.7% usage rate, 15.9% rebounding rate and 19.2% assist rate. While his production and rates are excellent in general, they pale in comparison to Jokic and Embiid.
Working in Antetokounmpo’s favor is the fact that he has power forward eligibility, whereas Jokic and Embiid can only be rostered at center. He is also lower owned than both of the centers on DraftKings. There is merit to using him as a high-upside contrarian option in some lineups, but it is very difficult to argue that he is a priority over either of them. He looks a bit better on FanDuel because he is less expensive than he is on DraftKings. There is also a higher opportunity cost at center on FanDuel since you can only roster one, so rostering Antetokounmpo at power forward is even more helpful. He has the highest optimal rate of the trio on FanDuel but has the lowest optimal rate of the three on DraftKings.
There are 11 games tonight, so a lot is going to change between now and the time that the games start. Be sure to check out Stokastic’s Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
