There are 14 games on tonight’s massive NBA DFS slate. That means several options are at the top of the pricing spectrum and that there is likely to be plenty of value by the time the slate starts. It also means, however, there are a ton of less expensive players with massive ceilings. At the time of this writing, none of the most expensive players are projected for much ownership, and we can generally make stronger lineups by looking a tier lower. As more value opens, however, the top NBA DFS plays like LaMelo Ball will become more appealing.
It seems relatively pointless to write about a bunch of players that aren’t projected to be important parts of tonight’s slate, so I am taking a bit of a different approach to this article and highlighting some of the players from the second tier of pricing that look much more useful tonight. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s break down the player pool to find the NBA DFS high-priced studs in DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
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NBA DFS Studs: LaMelo Ball or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Stud No. 1 – Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,500/ FanDuel: $12,500
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 66.1/ FanDuel: 63.2
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 3.9%/ FanDuel: 3.2%
Jokic is the top-projected player on the slate, as usual. He was ejected from his last game, but he has been excellent all season long and has produced at a higher level without Jamal Murray. He has produced 1.98 DraftKings points per minute in seven games without Murray this year. Jokic is expensive, however, and has an unappealing matchup against Orlando. The Magic have the best defensive rating in the NBA and rank in the middle of the pack in pace. We can still expect a big game out of Jokic, but it will be difficult to view him as more than a contrarian GPP play unless a lot more value opens up.
Stud No. 2 – LaMelo Ball: Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,200/ FanDuel: $9,900
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 54.3/ FanDuel: 51.7
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 8.7%/ FanDuel: 14.3%
This game has all the makings of a track meet, as the Hornets have played at the 10th-fastest pace this season and the Wizards have played at the second-fastest pace. Charlotte has also allowed the most points per 100 possessions, while Washington has allowed the fourth most. Ball is among the second tier of players tonight in terms of salary, but he is one of the better pay-up options. He is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he also offers massive GPP upside on DraftKings at lower ownership. Ball has produced 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in 37.1 minutes per game in the eight games that he has played without Terry Rozier this year.
Stud No. 3 – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,700/ FanDuel: $11,000
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.3/ FanDuel: 52.2
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 14.7%/ FanDuel: 2.7%
Gilgeous-Alexander is very expensive on FanDuel, so he is only a contrarian GPP option there, but he stands out as a top pay-up option on DraftKings at a $1,300 discount. Gilgeous-Alexander has been one of the best players in the NBA this season, ranking behind only Jokic and Joel Embiid in Estimated Plus/Minus (EPM). He has also been a fantasy stud, producing 1.54 DraftKings points per minute in 33.9 minutes per game and a 33.3% usage rate, 10.1% rebounding rate and 29.9% assist rate.
He could also see a nice bump tonight, as he has produced at a much higher level without Jalen Williams on the floor this season. In 175 minutes without Williams, Gilgeous-Alexander has produced 1.78 DraftKings points per minute, a 42.3% usage rate and 33.7% assist rate. In the 266 minutes that he has shared the floor with Williams, he has only recorded 1.38 DraftKings points per minute, a 27.1% usage rate and 26.8% assist rate. The Bulls have played at the second-slowest pace in the league, which prevents Gilgeous-Alexander’s projection from truly skyrocketing, but he still looks like an excellent option tonight at the reduced price tag without Williams.
Stud No. 4 – LeBron James: Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,600/ FanDuel: $10,500
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.7/ FanDuel: 51.3
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 15.1%/ FanDuel: 2.7%
The Lakers are on the second half of a back-to-back, but James only had to play 24 minutes in last night’s win over Utah, so assume that he will play until hearing otherwise. He doesn’t stand out on FanDuel, but at $9,600 he looks like a very strong play on DraftKings. James continues to dominate despite his age, ranking behind only Jokic, Embiid, Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton in EPM this year. From a fantasy standpoint, LeBron has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute in 34.1 minutes per game in the 13 games that he has played alongside Anthony Davis this season. The Mavericks have quietly been a very strong fantasy matchup this year, as they have played at the fourth-fastest pace while ranking 25th in defensive rating.
There are 14 games tonight, so it is almost guaranteed that things are going to change over the next few hours. Be sure to check out Stokastic’s Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
