NBA Player Props: Dejounte Murray Keeps Smashing PRA Lines (April 23)

There are four NBA playoff matchups on Sunday, with games spread throughout the day. Today’s best NBA player props on NBA Bet Pro are focusing on the three later games, as the 1 p.m. ET matchup between the Cavaliers and Knicks is not showing as much value in the projections at the moment due to a low 205 total.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 23

3. Dejounte Murray Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-109, BetRivers)

NBA Bet Pro is projecting Murray to finish close to his season-average line — 19.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists compared to 20.5, 5.3 and 6.1 for the year — but he is seeing just enough of a downtick in the projections at good odds to make this a strong +EV bet. And though Murray smashed 32.5 points + rebounds + assists in each of the first three games of this series, he averaged just under 32 points + rebounds + assists this year and stayed under 32.5 in both regular-season matchups with the Celtics.

All told, Murray’s projection of 30.6 points + rebounds + assists gives the under on 32.5 a 54% win expectancy.

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2. Trey Lyles Under 4.5 Rebounds (-139, Caesars)

NBA Bet Pro expects a very tight rotation from the Kings, especially with the bigs, as only Domantas Sabonis has a minutes projection over 20. Harrison Barnes will play a ton at power forward (projected 33.5 minutes), and Lyles and Keegan Murray are going to mostly get just a few stretches here and there. Lyles is only projecting for just 15.6 minutes, and Murray is only slightly higher at 17.4.

With Lyles essentially only getting run as Sabonis’ spell as needed, his rebound projection is only coming in at 4.0. That is slightly below his season average of 4.1 per game, and Lyles only grabbed more than 4.5 rebounds in 28.4% of his games this season. As such, this under is getting a 61% expected win rate.

1. De’Andre Hunter Under 4.5 Rebounds (+105, PointsBet)

Among Hawks players with significant playing time, Hunter is the most likely to fade into obscurity in any given game. He projects for 31 minutes today — third on the team — but only 13.9 points and 3.9 rebounds in that time. Atlanta has its full frontcourt rotation, and all of Clint Capela, John Collins and Onyeka Okongwu (plus Dejounte Murray) are projecting for over 5.5 rebounds today. That is relegating Hunter to a much more modest rebound line, especially since he will spend a lot of time on the perimeter guarding Boston’s star wings.

As always, getting plus money on a prop with better than a 50% win expectancy is a high-ROI opportunity, and Hunter’s rebound under leads the slate at 8% EV.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.