In this weekly series, we will take a closer look at the top NFL DFS running backs and fades for the upcoming daily fantasy football slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Based on Stokastic’s NFL player projections data, where should we focus our attention when making our NFL DFS picks and building our Week 9 lineups?
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 9
NFL player projections for the Week 9 main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel are out, so let’s see how the Stokastic data is looking at this point in the week. It’s a pretty ugly slate overall with a lot of low-total games, so roster building will be an interesting challenge.
The 49ers, Lions, Jaguars and Broncos are on a bye week, so we won’t be able to roster the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne and Jahmyr Gibbs at RB among others. Let’s get to the NFL DFS running back breakdown for Week 9 daily fantasy football.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 9 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Stokastic’s NFL DFS player projections, boom probabilities and optimal lineup rates for the slate on DraftKings and FanDuel have Saquon Barkley near the top at running back for the Week 9 matchup with Las Vegas. He has a 16.6% optimal rate on DK and a 19.5% mark on FD.
Barkley was unable to score a touchdown in Week 8’s 13-10 loss to the Jets yet still finished with 36 carries for 128 yards and three catches on five targets for a grand total of zero yards. It was encouraging to see the Giants’ running back take on such a large share of the opportunities even though he didn’t quite hit his NFL DFS ceiling in the poor weather.
When we check out the Saquon Barkley Week 9 odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his rushing yards prop is at 80.5 yards, his receiving yards prop is at 22.5, and his anytime touchdown line is at +105.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
A week after falling ill and logging a singular touch, Bijan Robinson reclaimed the leading RB role in Week 8, rushing 11 times for 62 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t have a monster NFL DFS performance last weekend, but it was encouraging to see him record a 74% snap rate.
Tyler Allgeier is in the mix still and will get touches, but he saw only 22% of the snaps in the 28-23 loss against the Titans.
The salaries on Robinson have also come down to more than reasonable levels for the upcoming meeting with Minnesota at home. As of now, the rookie is hitting 15.1% of optimal lineups at $6,100 on DraftKings and 15.8% of optimal lineups at $7,100 on FanDuel based on Stokastic’s simulations.
Per OddsShopper, Robinson has a rushing yards prop of 60.5 yards, receiving yards prop of 25.5 yards and an anytime TD line of +120 for this Sunday.
Elsewhere, Alvin Kamara has been ultra-consistent and is grading out very well in NFL DFS projections for Week 9, while Josh Jacobs is near the top of the boom probability chart at the RB position as well.
Be sure to go through all of the DraftKings and FanDuel data at the various price ranges ahead of lock.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 9 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts
Stokastic’s Week 9 NFL DFS boom and bust probabilities, which measure how likely players are to meet their respective ceilings and floors relative to their median projections, aren’t backing Zack Moss on the road against the Panthers. He has a 63.0% bust probability at a $5,800 salary on DraftKings and a 56.4% bust probability at $6,700 on FanDuel.
Now that Jonathan Taylor has returned and is stamping out a sizable role in the backfield, Moss’ fantasy ceiling has taken a hit, and his snap rate dropped from 50% in Week 7 to 39% last weekend. He scored a touchdown in Week 8 against the Saints but has now seen only 36 total rushing attempts over the last three weeks.
Meanwhile, Taylor’s snap rates have gone from 42% in Week 6 to 50% in Week 7 and 61% in Week 8.
Checking out Zack Moss’ odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his rushing yards prop is listed anywhere from 42.5 to 45.5 yards depending on the NFL betting sites you look at, and he has an anytime TD line of +165 for Week 9’s matchup.
We highly recommend going through the full running back data to see what else stands out for Week 9.
There is some important injury news we are waiting on, so it will be critical to monitor any updates that come in all the way through Sunday to see if better NFL DFS picks and running back values open up before lock.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
More Stokastic Week 9 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
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NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
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