UFC 286 Picks & Preview: Israel Adesanya Wants His Title Back

On Saturday, the UFC will be live from Miami-Dade Arena for UFC 287. The main card will air on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+. The main event will feature Alex Pereira defending his title in a rematch against Israel Adesanya. The co-main event has Gilbert Burns in a welterweight bout against Jorge Masvidal. Below are some MMA DFS picks the with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Let’s see what is on tap for UFC 287.

UFC 287 Picks: Alex Pereira-Israel Adesanya Picks

Jaqueline Amorim $9,000 vs. Sam Hughes $7,200

Jaqueline Amorim

Age: 27
Height: 5-foot-3
Weight: 115 lbs.
Reach: 67.5 ins.
Record: 6-0-0
Striking Accuracy: 59%
Betting Odds: -280

Jaqueline Amorim will be making her UFC debut and is coming in on fire, finishing all six of her pro fights. She is a beast in the Octagon, and her submission game is dangerous. All of Amorim’s wins have come in the first round, five via submission and one via knockout. Sam Hughes is definitely a step up for Amorim, as she is tough, well rounded and has power to knock out her opponents. Amorim will try to get this fight to the mat and showcase her black belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu to find another early submission victory.

Sam Hughes

Age: 30
Height: 5-foot-5
Weight: 115 lbs.
Reach: 64 ins.
Record: 7-5-0
Striking Accuracy: 60%
Betting Odds: +260

Sam Hughes is coming in on a disappointing unanimous decision loss against Piera Rodriguez. Prior to that, Hughes had back-to-back wins over Istela Nunes and Elise Reed. Her weakness in this fight will be poor takedown defense, which should be the deciding factor against Amorim’s slick ground game. Hughes will use her striking to take Amorim off her game, but to no avail, as Amorim can get her to the canvas.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Amorim. Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections give her 69.1% win odds and a 36.7% chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Jaqueline Amorim via First-Round Submission.

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Raul Rosas Jr.$9,100 vs. Christian Rodriguez $7,100

Raul Rosas Jr.

Age: 18
Height: 5-foot-9
Weight: 136 lbs.
Reach: 67 ins.
Record: 7-0-0
Striking Accuracy: 65%
Betting Odds: -250

Raul Rosas Jr. will be facing a much tougher fight this time out against Christian Rodriguez, who is in his prime and has fought larger opponents than Rosas. Both fighters are aggressive and will look to push the pace. Rosas is a strong, well-rounded fighter with a dangerous submission game. Last time out, he made quick work of Jay Perrin, finding the submission in Round 1. This will be a step up in competition for Rosas, but he should pass the test.

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Christian Rodriguez

Age: 25
Height: 5-foot-7
Weight: 136 lbs.
Reach: 71.5 ins.
Record: 8-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 47%
Betting Odds: +198

Christian Rodriguez made his UFC debut in February 2022 against the surging and exciting Jonathan Pearce, losing via unanimous decision. He rebounded nicely with a first-round submission over Joshua Weems in October. Against Pearce, Rodriguez showed patience while he tried to work from his back. Although, in that fight, Rodriguez showed some weakest against a superior grappler, as he was controlled on the mat for over 11 minutes. Rodriguez should come out aggressively, looking to keep this fight standing and land the knockout blow.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Rosas. Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections give him 67.7% win odds.

UFC DFS Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. via Second-Round Submission.

Gilbert Burns $9,600 vs. Jorge Masvidal $6,600

Gilbert Burns

Age: 36
Height: 5-foot-11
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 70 ins.
Record: 23-4-0
Striking Accuracy: 61%
Betting Odds: -500

Gilbert Burns is coming off an impressive first-round submission over Neal Magny in January. Over his career, Burns has relied on his world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu and highly regarded grappling. But in recent years, he has developed solid striking under the renowned kickboxing coach Henri Hooft. His last time out against Magny, Burns looked extremely sharp, showing off his skills on mat and on the feet. Burns should take care of business against Jorge Masvidal and establish himself firmly as a top contender in the welterweight division.

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Jorge Masvidal

Age: 38
Height: 5-foot-5
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 71 ins.
Record: 12-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 52%
Betting Odds: +360

Masvidal is coming into this matchup off three disappointing losses in a row. However, before his recent skid, Masvidal had three consecutive knockout wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz. A dangerous and deadly striker, Masvidal’s biggest weakness is his poor wrestling and defending the takedown, which should give Burns a big advantage in this fight. Masvidal has 16 wins via knockout, two via submission and 17 via decision. He will be prepared for this fight, but Burns’ pressure and outstanding cardio will force Masvidal to fight off his back foot, which should create an opening for Burns to land heavy punches and takedowns.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Burns; Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections give him 80.1% win odds and a 43.5% chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Gilbert Burns via Third-Round KO/TKO.

Alex Pereira $7,900 vs. Israel Adesanya $8,300

Alex Pereira

Age: 35
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 184 lbs.
Reach: 79 ins.
Record: 7-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 67%
Betting Odds: +116

Alex Pereira is coming off impressive back-to-back knockout victories over Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. He is the only fighter in the top 6 that Adesanya has not beaten. Pereira has faced Adesanya twice in a kickboxing match, and both times Pereira was victorious, once via knockout and via decision. His most dangerous weapon is his incredibly powerful hands, which he showcased last time out as he put Adesanya’s winning streak to rest. Pereira should push forward early to land his powerful left hook and end Adesanya’s night once again.

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Israel Adesanya

Age: 33
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 80 ins.
Record: 23-2-0
Striking Accuracy: 54%
Betting Odds: -142

Israel Adesanya will be looking to make a statement at UFC 287 by knocking the hype train of Pereira off the rails. He is a high-level striker with speed, footwork, head movement and feints that force his opponents into awkward positions. He now has two blemishes on his record, the first coming when he jumped up to light heavyweight to challenge Jan Blachowicz, and the most recent a knockout loss to Pereira for the middleweight title. That said, Adesanya was putting on a dominant performance against Pereira until Round 5, when it all came tumbling down. Accuracy, pressure and not letting up will be a key role in this fight for Adesanya, as Pereira showed his durability last time out.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Pereira. Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections give him 44.2% win odds and a 31.7% chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Alex Pereira via Fourth-Round KO/TKO.