Receiver plays are a week-to-week thought process in NFL DFS due to a variety of outside factors impacting receiver performance. One way to predict who will break out is by examining their secondary opponents for that individual game. Every week of the season, Sam Smith will take a look at advantageous matchups for receivers against vulnerable secondaries, whether it be schematic advantage or merely a weaker cornerback head up on a star receiver. Let’s get into some NFL Matchups and give out some NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups, Week 8 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NFL DFS Picks: WR-CB Matchups | Week 8
Chalk Stack
NFL DFS Pick: Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Minnesota Vikings
This is the layup play of the slate given Minnesota’s miserable pass defense, Aaron Rodgers‘ return to elite play and Davante Adams‘ and Marquez Valdes-Scantling‘s opportunity shares. Adams and Valdes-Scantling are comfortably first and second in targets, and the third-place pass catcher, Aaron Jones, may not play this week. That should spell an inordinate amount of usage funneled to those two, particularly Adams. Adam already has three games with double-digit targets and two games with at least 10 catches, 150 yards and two touchdowns — and he has only played in four games. Addams has basically been the best fantasy receiver in football, at least as far as ceilings go.
Valdes-Scantling is a bit more of a value play since he cannot even hope to compete with Adams’ production. That said, he is the clear No. 2 in an efficient Green Bay offense and had at least five targets in four of six games. His modest production stems more from not capitalizing on said opportunity rather than opportunity itself lacking. With pretty limited pass-catching options at Rodgers’ disposal, Valdes-Scantling’s target share seems pretty safe. He has yet to have a ceiling game, and the circumstances are pretty ripe for that to come this week given the matchup.
Wanna bet?
Sam Smith has the Green Bay Packers as one of the chalkiest stacks of the Week 8 NFL DFS slate. The Packers are home favorites against the Minnesota Vikings and the game total is sitting at 50.5, signaling the Packers are implied for a bit of offense in this matchup. Check out the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to find the sportsbook offering the best lines and odds for all this week’s matchups. Plus, we’ve beefed up our OddsShopper matchup tools and information to help you analyze each game even deeper, and find trends you can use to win your bets. Click on the image below to see our new matchups tool.
Minnesota is basically punting the season, trading away their one good remaining pass rusher and playing out the stretch with a lot of defensive players who are rotation pieces at best. Their cornerback room — which has been bad to begin with — is dealing with injuries to starters, and the one thing they had going for them in the secondary, safety play, has been disappointing. Harrison Smith is still pretty good, only getting targeted six times and allowing a passer rating of 40.3, but Anthony Harris has been exploitable with two touchdowns allowed and a targeted rating over 130. Rookie corners Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler have surrendered three and four touchdowns, respectively, and are in the top 10 among qualified corners in yards allowed per coverage snap. And so long as Holton Hill sits out (he has not practiced this week), Minnesota does not project as a penalty-heavy opponent. Hill has four penalties, but the rest of the secondary has just five combined. This is an exploitable secondary without any real mitigating factors.
The main concern would be game flow, as Green Bay could put it away early and lean on the run game. That said, Adams and Valdes-Scantling should play a role in building said lead, so it is not a total dampener on this play. Awesemo still loves both as top-six receiver values in Week 8, and they make for a strong stack, albeit a popular one.
Mid-Price Ceiling Play
NFL DFS Pick: Jarvis Landry vs. Oakland Raiders
Jarvis Landry‘s value has been pretty low this year despite leading the Browns in receptions and yards, largely due to Baker Mayfield spreading the ball and targeting others in the end zone. Landry is second behind Odell Beckham in red zone targets, but only one of those was in the end zone and it did not produce a touchdown. In fact, of the Browns’ 16 passing touchdowns (Landry threw one, Mayfield 15), 10 have gone to tight ends and running backs. That has limited the upside of many of their receivers, particularly in recent weeks with Harrison Bryant becoming a major red zone threat.
Everything about Cleveland’s receiver situation changed last week, however, with Beckham going down for the year. Now Landry is the only really option at the position, at least from a consistent production standpoint, and someone has to account for Beckham’s seven targets and 2.5 red zone targets per game. Now, that will not all go to Landry, but he has been a target monster in the past, including with the Browns pre-Beckham. He may also take on some of Beckham’s gadget plays that allow for some rushing upside. Mayfield is still going to target Bryant a lot in the end zone, and David Njoku may poach some of those high-value opportunities as well, but Austin Hooper also likely being out points strongly to increased usage for Landry. So while he may be a bit more reliant on home run plays to hit touchdown upside, this week is a pretty good situation for it.
Las Vegas provides ample support for Landry as well. The Raiders are a putrid defense all around, but the secondary may be the worst part of their offerings. PFF grades every one of their defensive backs below average, and like the Vikings, their low penalty total suggests that comes from surrendered production rather than a lack of penalty discipline. As always when targeting the Raiders, the biggest culprit is slot corner Lamarcus Joyner, who is on a two-year hot streak as one of the game’s most exploitable nickel corners. This year he is seventh in slot targets and slot yards allowed. Landry only runs about half his routes from the slot, so Joyner will not be his only matchup, but the whole Raider secondary is only slightly better than Joyner.
The volume projected for Landry and his ideal matchup make him one of the better values on the slate, currently rating top eight in Awesemo’s projections. And as of now, the ownership is not really following, so there is strong contrarian value with Landry as well.
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