The Jaguars shocked the Colts and stole victory from the jaws of defeat to start their season. Now they’ll face an even tougher test, heading to Tennessee to take on the Titans. For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Jaguars-Titans.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (16.7) at Tennessee Titans (26) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Tennessee Titans Breakdown
It wasn’t the prettiest victory, but the AFC runner-up Titans are 1-0 thanks to a breakout game from secondary receiver Corey Davis and some late-game clock management blunders from their Week 1 opponent. Second-year receiver A.J. Brown drew eight targets, equal to Davis, but didn’t finish with nearly as notable a stat line. Something that should absolutely be taken into consideration by DFS players is the Titans’ uptempo pace, finishing Week 1 sixth in the NFL in pace of play. Combined with Ryan Tannehill’s pass rate, the Titans could easily drop back to pass 38-40 times, even if they take the lead early.
Beyond Davis and Brown, Adam Humphries saw a healthy chunk of opportunity, snagging 17% of the Titans’ weighted opportunity. Jonnu Smith also produced effectively on six targets. Though he’s fourth on the team’s target totem pole, Smith proved he can be efficient as a runner and receiver, and Tennessee is scheming him looks consistently.
Derrick Henry was relatively productive on the ground but was graded out very inefficiently according to NFL next-gen stats, finishing last in the league in total rushing yards vs. expectation. His longest run in Week 1 was 13 yards, and yet he finds himself a home favorite against a Jaguars defense that ranked seventh worst in expected points allowed per drive. It’s not out of the question to see Henry scoring multiple times, and his three looks in the passing game boost his weekly floor as well.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Breakdown
Gardner Minshew had as impressive a Week 1 performance as any quarterback, completing 19-of-20 passes for three touchdowns and no interceptions and shocking the Colts with a game-winning drive. While helming a lethargically paced, run-oriented offense, Minshew picked the Colts apart en route to a decent 1.42 expected points per drive, besting the Week 1 numbers of Tannehill. However, he was let down for much of the day by the Jaguar defense, who were gashed in the short passing game, leading to the seventh-worst defensive expected points allowed per drive in Week 1.
Keelan Cole, who caught a touchdown from Minshew in the second half, led the Jaguars in true weighted opportunity (WOPR) share, followed by Laviska Shenault, who produced effectively in a hybrid role and found the end zone. Fantasy gamers should note, however, that the Jacksonville pace of play limits the upside of the Jaguars receivers, as no player commanded more than five targets. Even in his highly efficient day, Minshew only passed for 195 yards. The result might have been what the Jaguars wanted, but this situation is far from perfect for fantasy football.
James Robinson, the only healthy remaining Jaguars running back, performed admirably in his NFL debut. His 16 carries led the team, and he tacked on a reception as well. He’s a locked-in RB2 in fantasy due to usage, but his upside remains limited by the offense he plays on. Minshew’s productivity as a scrambler is also a detriment to Robinson, as it likely means fewer dump-offs and short-area passes. Still, priced in the low-50s among running backs on DraftKings, he can be a very valuable piece of fantasy lineup, particularly if he can find the end zone.
Prediction: Titans 28, Jaguars 21
Alternative Scenario: Minshew is efficient once again, and the Titans can’t get their wheel’s turning offensively until it’s too late. Jaguars 28, Titans 27
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