Boom vs Bust NFL DFS Week 9 NFL Fantasy Football Picks

Built similarly to the extremely popular NBA Boom Bust Tool here at Awesemo, the NFL Boom Bust Tool has gained popularity as the most user-friendly way to identify the best (and worst) plays on any given slate. Developed by the data team at Awesemo including Alex Baker himself, this tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s main slate — as well highlight which plays are most likely to fail. Simply group players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust) and compare those scores to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 9 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing DFS NFL lineups today.

Week 9 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades

Top Quarterback to Boom: Lamar Jackson

A staple of the Boom Bust Tool, Lamar Jackson leads the quarterback position with a 22.6% boom chance and just a 20.4% bust potential at $7,300 on DraftKings. Those staggering numbers makes a ton of sense when factoring in his 68.6 rushing yards per game, a number that surpasses the equivalent of 1.5 passing touchdowns. And considering he’s had at least one passing touchdown in every game this season, there are a lot of ways for the 2019 NFL MVP to get there in the box score. Perhaps that’s why he comes in with a position-leading 19.8% optimal lineup appearance rate, which, when combined to his mere 13.6% current ownership, makes him the best quarterback play on the board for Week 9.

Top Quarterback to Bust: Kyler Murray

Contrary to the public notion that Kyler Murray is a massive dual-threat quarterback, the Cardinals signal-caller has turned over a new leaf in 2021. The once willing rusher has failed to eclipse even 40 rushing yards in a game this season, drastically lowering his ceiling on a weekly basis. Furthermore, Murray hasn’t practiced in any capacity this week due to an ankle injury sustained on the final drive of a losing effort to the Packers, making him even less likely to make things happen with his legs. So despite ranking second in completion percentage this season (72.7%) behind only Dak Prescott (73.1%), his newfound laser accuracy is of no use to the boom bust tool, as he grades out with a massive 62.3% chance to bust at his $7,900 tag on DraftKings.

Top Running Back to Boom: Ezekiel Elliott

Despite notions that Tony Pollard could start cutting into Ezekiel Elliott’s workload at as the season wore on, the opposite as actually taking place. Over the Cowboys’ past two weeks, Elliott has seen 71% and 75% of the running back snaps. And since Week 1’s measly 11 carries against the pass-funnel Buccaneers, Elliott has seen at least 16 totes in every single game. This sort of volume is too good to pass up, and the Boom Bust Tool agrees, giving the Cowboys’ RB1 an 18.4% chance to boom as well as a slate-high 20.9% optimal lineup appearance rate. And with the 4-4 Broncos willingly giving up Von Miller freely to the Rams, their defense is far less formidable entering Week 9.

Top Running Back to Bust: Dalvin Cook

The 2021 season has been a struggle for the Vikings workhorse back Dalvin Cook, as injuries have already forced him to miss two games this season and limited his workload in others. And while it is still indisputably his backfield, negative game scripts are likely to cede some of his volume to Alexander Mattison. That’s a likely event against the Ravens on the road this week, making Cook a massive risk to incur in tournaments. His 47.4% bust potential and only 6.1% boom chances show a bleak outlook in this spot despite an advantageous $7,700 salary on DraftKings, making him a tough roster at his current double-digit ownership.

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Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Hunter Renfrow

It was another devastating week of devastating news for Raiders Nation, as the horrific events surrounding Henry Ruggs III’s accident and release from the team has left a hole in the receiving corps. But the main beneficiary from a productivity standpoint reasons to be Hunter Renfrow, the primary slot receiver out of Clemson. Renfrow sports a slate-high 25.0% boom score at his $4,800 salary on DraftKings, making him one of the best sources of savings in any format. And even with Darren Waller back in the mix after sitting out Week 7 before the Raiders’ Week 8 bye, there should be plenty of volume to go around, so expect big things out of Renfrow at his low-price point.

Awesemo’s Billy Ward also loves Hunter Renfrow as a value this week, and wrote even more about the Vegas WR’s viability in his Week 9 Low Priced Value Plays article.

Top Wide Receiver to Bust: DeAndre Hopkins

With Kyler Murray’s newfound emphasis on pocket presence, it’s surprising for Hopkins to be tagged with massive 55.3% bust percentage. But with a stellar running back duo of Chase Edmonds and James Conner — and more so speedy receiving threats such as Rondale Moore and Christian Kirk — targets are way down for Hopkins in 2021. In fact, Hopkins hasn’t recorded a single game of double-digit targets all season long, a staggering number for one of the game’s elite wide receivers. Perhaps with A.J. Green’s absence in Week 9 due to COVID-19 protocols, that volume could get ramped up slightly. But with Hopkins nursing a hamstring injury, the chances he can play a full allotment of snaps is even up for debate, making Hopkins a ‘proceed with caution’-type play for Sunday.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.