NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Projections Today

The Super Bowl brings a fascinating matchup to end the season, with opinions on how the game will unfold ranging from blowouts to hard-fought aerial displays. The consensus seems to be that the defensive front for the Rams, and their solid defense as a whole, will be the difference-maker. If the Bengals’ offensive line is not equal to the task of stopping the Rams’ deadly pass rush the game could get ugly quickly. Cincinnati will seemingly look to come out of the gate firing with their passing game, and the airborne attack on both sides is the preferred offensive strategy. The game is carrying a surprisingly low 48.5-point total on the board in Vegas, but one could easily construct a game script for these two teams that would take scoring well beyond that mark. With a potential game script that aligns well with the most frequently optimal constructions for DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown slates, getting to pass-catchers in the Captain role with a blend of quarterbacks and other skill players in flex roles is a strong approach to lineup building for Super Bowl Showdown tournaments.

This article is dedicated to DraftKings builds, a FanDuel-specific version is available separately. This space focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within Fantasy Cruncher. All of the concepts and pairings included below can be applied to hand-building as well, the goal is to create lineups that have high scoring correlation and take advantage of combined outcomes within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

Fantasy Cruncher – New How-To Video

The uptick in questions related to the how-to aspects of Fantasy Cruncher along with several noteworthy new tools demanded a new how-to tutorial video. I put together the above review of all of Fantasy Cruncher’s advanced options with some basic how-to on the constructions, rules, limits, and groups that we use in this article. The tutorial also reviews all of Fantasy Cruncher’s new features and the important distinctions between the various sets of projections that are available.

NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks & Projections

NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Groups for DraftKings – Super Bowl Sunday Showdown Slate

Small Sample Central — Trends and Notes

Several of the primary lineup construction notes from previous versions of the Showdown article will continue to be listed in this space, but each week we will attempt to find parallels based on Vegas data and the general game environment from historical contests in the pool of DraftKings Showdown research from 2019 through this week’s contests. It is important to not get too focused on results-based thinking in such a small sample. Quality lineup construction is always the focus, but historical results can help inform some basic decisions in a pricing and ownership vacuum. A quick summary of that previous content:

According to tracking data for DraftKings Showdown contests over 2019 and 2020, only 17 of 95 slates were won with a quarterback Captain.
Across the same sample, wide receivers and running backs split the outcomes evenly, with 33 tournament-winning events each.
Of the 38 times that a wide receiver or tight end was in the winning Captain position, only three of those builds did not include at least one quarterback in a Flex position.
Thirty-five of 95 winning lineups featured at least one defense, but only two of those featured both defenses.
Twenty-nine winning lineups featured at least one kicker, but only two of those included both.
Only eight winning lineups included at least one defense and one kicker, while one person won a tournament with two defenses and a kicker in 2019.

With a 48.5-point game total for the Super Bowl, we have a wide range of quality comparison points to review for this matchup. The sample includes 23 games that kicked off within a point on either side of tonight’s game total, with the most noteworthy point being the same as it has been throughout the season: quarterbacks are best rostered in flex positions for DraftKings Showdown slates. The position is almost mandatory for success in winning a Showdown tournament, in the 23 entries in this sample, only one winning lineup did not include a quarterback. Because of the salary multiplier and the significant cost at which the position is typically offered, quarterbacks are more valuable as flex plays where they do not have the same limiting effect on the rest of a lineup. Only three of the 23 winning lineups utilized a quarterback in the Captain role on DraftKings.

11 of the 23 winning lineups utilized a pass-catcher in the Captain role, the leading position in that spot in this sample. The upside in rostering a receiver or premium tight end in the Captain role while correlating with his quarterback in a flex position is strong, and there are a variety of options at a wide range of salaries in Sunday’s contests. The board is topped by Cooper Kupp, but Kupp’s massive salary throws a wrinkle into expectations, as he will have a similar downstream impact on the ability to add pieces to the rest of a lineup. The receiver still comes up as the most frequently optimal DraftKings Captain option, but he is also a negatively leveraged play in the role and the impact he has on the ability to roster multiple quality pieces though the rest of a lineup must be weighed against his scoring potential. In the historical sample, there is a mix of primary and secondary receivers in the Captain role. Of the 11 winning lineups with pass-catchers in the Captain role, six were constructed as 3-3 builds with another four coming as 4-2 constructions. The final lineup was a 2-4 build that utilized a wide receiver and his correlated quarterback along with a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and kicker combination from the opposing team. Evenly-built pass-focused lineups seem like a good approach to Showdown slates for the Super Bowl on DraftKings.

Eight of the 23 winning lineups utilized a running back in the Captain role, though that seems like a shaky proposition for Sunday’s contests. The multi-headed backfield in Los Angeles offers up a murky-at-best situation for determining the flow of fantasy production, while Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon will be more popular than he is optimal in the Captain role. The list of winning lineups that utilized running backs in the Captain role includes a quarterback in every lineup, with three of the eight rostering two passers. Defenses were utilized in four of the eight winning lineups, a somewhat noteworthy combination that follows a logical football game-flow progression. The winning lineups are a mix of mostly evenly built constructions again, with three 4-2 builds, two 3-3s, and one each of 2-4, 5-1, 1-5 rounding things out.

Contrary to expectations, a defense Captain play did win one of the 23 slates in the sample. That lineup was a 3-3 construction that doubles as the lineup in the sample that did not include a quarterback in any role. Overall, defenses were utilized in eight of the 23 winning lineups, seven times in flex roles. The kicker position nearly matches that production, landing in the flex role in seven of the 23 winning lineups, but not once in the Captain spot. Three of the winning lineups included both a defense and a kicker, interestingly two of those were two of the three lineups that successfully utilized a quarterback Captain play.

DraftKings Stack Rules

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team (this will happen naturally in most Showdown constructions, but including the rule will eliminate lineups that feature only an opposing kicker or quarterback)

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (this will happen naturally in a large portion of lineups, but stacking quarterbacks with pass catchers is the easiest way to rack up NFL DFS points. It makes sense to include this rule to force the build, in most situations)

Limit Rules

Limit rules are slightly less important for Showdown slates as there are only two teams to choose from. They are still useful for preventing suboptimal constructions, however. Including the following will help prevent these less likely builds.

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE/DST/K from Same Team to three unless paired with Captain

Limit RB from Same Team to one (this is a rule that can be toggled on and off over multiple crunches, but the preference for this slate would be to use it)

Limit K from Same Game to one

Limit DEF from Same Game to one

Construction Basics

We will utilize Fantasy Cruncher’s Groups utility to create specific builds. The Groups feature includes the ability to designate players as the key to the group, or the player whose use in a position will trigger the group requirements. For Showdown slates this can be utilized to force specific sets of players or positions along with each type of designated Captain. The example below shows a group that utilizes Joe Mixon in the Captain role as the key player. It will then force all constructions featuring Mixon in the Captain role to include at least three of the players from a group that includes both quarterbacks and positively leveraged options on both sides.

NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks

Unlike multi-game slates, when attacking individual potential game scripts, these groups are better deployed individually for separate crunches that can then be combined into a single pool of lineups. Running them all at once is likely to create conflicting scenarios that will either prevent or limit a full crunch.

Quarterback Inclusion

The first wrinkle in utilizing Groups to create specific constructions is that the tool differentiates between a wide receiver or running back and the same player in the Captain or MVP spot. This requires the creation of a group that adds the Captain version of any likely skill player as the key player, with a rule setting that any lineup featuring any of these players must include one of the quarterbacks in a Flex position. The alternate approach to this problem is to remove all but the skill players from potential inclusion at the Captain spot then create a rule that will simply stack the quarterback with the Captain spot, but that approach is likely more flawed. This group does not currently force quarterbacks when defense or a kicker is used at Captain.

Key Players: All primary skill-players as Captain

Setting: At least one

Group: Joe Burrow & Matthew Stafford – Standard versions

This group will result in getting one of the quarterbacks whenever any of the listed primary skill-players is utilized at Captain. To force the quarterback from the same team, multiple groups should be created for skill players from each team utilizing just the quarterback from that team. When quarterbacks appear in Flex positions, the rules and limit settings will kick in to force optimal constructions in the other Flex roles.

NFL DFS Game Script – Differentiating Captain Kupp

Key Player(s): Cooper Kupp – Captain version

Setting: at least four

Group: Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Van Jefferson, Rams Defense, Matt Gay, C.J. Uzomah, Ben Skowronek, Kendall Blanton, Samaje Perine, Sony Michel

This group looks to offset the massive cost and ownership involved in rostering Rams superstar receiver Cooper Kupp in the Captain role as the most expensive player on the slate. The group will force four players from a list that includes both quarterbacks and the most positively leveraged or purely low-owned and low-cost options from both sides that will fit in around the edges with some hope of scoring potential and differentiation. When utilized alongside the group above that forces a quarterback, or in tandem with a rule forcing a quarterback-receiver stack, the group will pull three of the skill players, defense, or kickers listed.

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Key Player(s): Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah

Setting: at least four

Group: Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, JaMarr Chase, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Cam Akers, Sony Michel, Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon, Odell Beckham Jr.

This group attempts to place high upside plays with positive leverage in flex roles around the three positively leveraged Bengals pass-catchers in the Captain spot. The group includes the same list of pass-catchers with the addition of standout wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who will land in plenty of lineups in the Captain role outside of this group. The list also includes positively leveraged players from the Rams side of the game, looking to capture balanced 3-3, 4-2, or 2-4 builds.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.