We have just five games on the NHL slate tonight, so we have to be judicious with our NHL DFS picks. We will be using our premium fantasy hockey tools and data here at Awesemo to take us through this slate. Subscribers should pop into the Discord throughout the day to see if there are any updates, though we’ll send notifications of major changes at warm-up. For non-subscribers, our NHL DFS Top Stacks tool is free for anyone to view today, so it’s definitely worth utilizing that when making your DraftKings and FanDuel NHL lineups tonight. Going position-by-position, we’ll find some of the best NHL DFS picks for Saturday, Feb. 12.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Auston Matthews (TOR at VAN): DraftKings – $9,600 FanDuel – $10,300
For a season that started with wrist issues, Auston Matthews’s 82-game paces are now for over 60 goals and over 100 points. He has really just been elite whenever he’s been on the ice. That is probably why they’ve moved wingers on him so much this year, at least on the right side. Of late though, he’s had Mitch Marner beside him, and that particular iteration has been otherworldly for the Leafs of late; 70 shot attempts and 42 scoring chance per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It is leading to a lot of goals, which makes this line one of the top offensive trios in the league this campaign.
There really aren’t (m)any skaters priced in Matthews’s range tonight (depends on the site) and that’s where his ownership plays a factor. On a short slate without other hugely expensive options, it will drive a lot of ownership here. When considering whether to play him, consider he has a goal in over half his games this season (21/41) and well over half his games last season. There is a reason he’s priced where he is.
The power play for Toronto has been elite for months now and Matthews is one of the few players who is basically matchup-proof. He is at the top of the priority list in all formats, though using him in a stack for tournaments is best.
Matthews shot atop the DraftKings NHL lineup optimizer when running projections for tonight’s NHL picks. Check out the DraftKings Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet for more free NHL DFS lineup picks tonight.
Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN vs. CAR): DraftKings – $5,400 FanDuel – $5,900
The way the Minnesota Wild divvy the minutes at home and on the road differ. The reason for that is Joel Eriksson Ek and his line mates are used in a shutdown capacity when the team is at home. That is one reason why Eriksson Ek plays nearly 20 minutes a night at home compared to nearly 18 when on the road. This all means the Wild pivot should get a lot of minutes tonight trying to shut down the Carolina top line.
Minnesota’s shutdown line isn’t a bad line offensively, either. They are generating 28 scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this year, scoring 2.8 goals per 60, both marks being above-average. While that might not scream ringing endorsement, we need to remember that there could be a real TOI bump tonight and just being ‘good’ but playing a lot of minutes is very valuable in almost any fantasy sport. Marcus Foligno is missing for this game but it shouldn’t hurt the whole unit too much.
With his power-play role, Eriksson Ek is fine to use as a one-off in tournaments here tonight. But his unique situation – no one on his line skates the power play with him – he can also be used in power-play stacks. He is a versatile player in real life, and tonight, in DFS as well.
Winger
Filip Forsberg (NSH vs. WPG): DraftKings – $6,100 FanDuel – $8,900
It is curious to see Filip Forsberg as cheap as he is on DraftKings, given his prolific scoring of late with 10 goals and 16 points in 11 games since we turned to 2022. He is averaging over three shots per game in that span so, yes, percentages are helping a lot here, but he’s also shooting his fair share.
One of the bonuses here for the Predators is Winnipeg playing a back-to-back tonight. That means either a tired Connor Hellebuyck or a backup goalie. Either favors Nashville tonight.
Forsberg’s line just seems to be far too cheap tonight on DraftKings, and reasonably priced on FanDuel. As for DraftKings, we have seen them be several thousand dollars more expensive than they are now, and the play has slipped a bit but they’re still very good offensively. Forsberg, at the least, is in consideration for us as a shooter on this line, but the whole trio is in play for us in tournaments.
Pavel Buchnevich (STL vs. CHI): DraftKings – $5,100 FanDuel – $7,100
St. Louis was thoroughly embarrassed at home a couple nights ago by New Jersey, and that sent their lines into a blender. They have come out with Pavel Buchnevich on the second line with Robert Thomas and Vladimir Tarasenko. We are thankful for that, because it’s a St. Louis line that has been very good this year, generating 3.1 expected goals and 4.5 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this year. They are very good at controlling the play and moving in transition, something Buchnevich is excellent at doing.
Buchnevich has been on a slide of late but it’s a question of how much was the team shuffling him all over the lineup and not playing with Thomas. Those two have been dynamite together this year (62% shot share) and much less successful apart (both under 50% when not skating together). On a short slate, looking for Buch to regain his scoring touch with a playmaking center isn’t a bad idea.
With Chicago in town, the Blues are hosting, at best, a mid-pack team defensively by expected goals and scoring chances allowed. That isn’t good enough to contain Buchnevich and hopefully he finds his way to the scoresheet tonight. He is fine for tournaments tonight.
Oliver Wahlstrom (NYI at CGY): DraftKings – $3,400 FanDuel – $4,800
If there is one area the Calgary Flames aren’t great defensively, it’s the penalty kill. Since the calendar turned to 2022, they’re 13th by expected goals allowed on the PK, which certainly isn’t bad, but it’s the one area that isn’t a difficult matchup for the Islanders tonight. That is where Oliver Wahlstrom can show his value.
In that span of games mentioned, Wahlstrom leads the Islanders in shot attempts while on the man advantage, and it’s not particularly close. He does seem a bit wild with his shot selection, but he’s still leading the team in scoring chances per 60 minutes on the power play in that time. He is one of the focal points of the power play, and that’s a big reason to use him tonight.
That, of course, is in conjunction with his price and ownership. Even with the PP time he’s getting, it’s a back-to-back and the team is on the road against a good Calgary squad. This is a player who can get on the board without a lot of ice time though, and that’s worth one-off consideration in tournaments tonight on a short slate.
Latest NHL DFS Content
Defensemen
Roman Josi (NSH vs. WPG): DraftKings – $7,400 FanDuel – $7,400
For those playing tournaments tonight and not wanting to dive in on the Nashville forwards, Roman Josi makes the natural pivot. He can truly do it all, with 3.5 shots and 1.6 blocks per game, on top of his point-per-game-plus pace on the season. He has a point in 28 of the team’s 45 games, which should show just how involved he is in the offence regularly. Winnipeg has been fairly average at 5-on-5 over their last dozen games or so, and the back-to-back won’t help. Josi is fine in all formats.
Josi was one of the top defensemen in the FanDuel NHL lineup optimizer when running projections for tonight’s NHL picks. Check out the FanDuel Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet for more free NHL DFS lineup picks tonight.
Brett Pesce (CAR at MIN): DraftKings – $3,200 FanDuel – $5,800
On the season, Brett Pesce is averaging nearly 1.5 blocks and two shots per game, which is a reasonable peripheral floor for someone at his price. He has seen an ice time drop of late, but one game was a blowout and the other was a blowout until very late in the contest. It shouldn’t be an issue tonight against a very good Minnesota team. Those peripherals make him very valuable on DraftKings tonight for his price, and that makes him a target over there. As for FanDuel, he is fine to include with a Carolina stack in tournaments as well.
We should note this play is more for DraftKings. He is wildly over-priced on FanDuel. At his price on FanDuel, teammates Tony DeAngelo and Jaccob Slavin are better options.
Top NHL DFS Stacks
WPGPP: Scheifele-Connor-Dubois
The fact is that the Nashville Predators take way too many penalties, coming in with nearly the most time short-handed since the Christmas break. They are also in the bottom-10 for expected goals against per 60 minutes while on the PK. Nashville is leaning very heavily on their goalie right now and leaning on hot goaltending isn’t a recipe for long-term success. Winnipeg is on a back-to-back but their power play is in a very good situation. On small slates like this, it is one of those edges we look for.
STL2: Buchnevich-Thomas-Tarasenko
As mentioned in the section on Buchnevich, this iteration has been a very good line this season. This iteration is also cheaper than it was earlier in the season, largely because the coaches broke up this line and there were injuries interspersed. They will carry ownership here tonight because of the quality of the opponent, but they also warrant consideration for that exact same reason, even if they have high ownership. A mid-priced-yet-dominant line is the exchange for the ownership.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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