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MUST PLAY Week 16 Saturday Slate NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups




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It is always important to find value for DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 16 Saturday NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 16 — Saturday Slate

FanDuel Value Quarterback: Kyler Murray — $8,700

Murray is the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel, violating the title of this piece a bit. However, he also sports the best value in Awesemo’s projections for the Saturday slate, making him hard to avoid. Murray is the only quarterback on the slate with legitimate rushing upside. Additionally, the Cardinals have the highest pass-play rate of any team other than Green Bay on the slate. The Packers are favored by more than a touchdown over the Browns though, and are likely to lean on the run if they get out to a lead. Murray and the cardinals are one-point favorites, so their passing expectation is way higher in this one.

DraftKings Value Quarterback: Carson Wentz — $5,400

You can’t get much more “low-priced” than the cheapest starting quarterback on the slate. That’s precisely what Wentz is this week. His Colts are one-point underdogs with a reasonable 24-point total against the Cardinals. “Slight underdog” is a nice sweet spot from a Vegas lines perspective. Markets expect the Colts to put up points, but also to trail for some of the game. That means they should be forced to pass if this game follows the market’s expectations.

The Cardinals feature a tough passing defense, but we saw Jared Goff put up 20 DraftKings points last week. Wentz is a better quarterback (With more talent to throw to) than Goff, so there’s no reason he can’t match that feat. As well as being the cheapest option, Wentz has the best value in Awesemo’s projections among Saturday slate quarterbacks.

FanDuel Value Running Back: A.J. Dillon — $6,200

As mentioned above, the Packers are favored by more than a touchdown in this one. That’s a good thing for Dillon, who has at least 15 carries in each of the Packers last three wins by more than a touchdown (including games with Aaron Jones active). The Packers want to limit Jones’ reps, and are more than happy to grind out games through the massive legs of Dillon. He hasn’t been especially efficient with his carries, or seen much work in the pass game with Jones active. He’ll need to find the end zone to post a big score. His chances there are solid though, he has 12 red zone rushes over the past three games. He ranks third in value in Awesemo’s projections, but first among sub-$7,000 running backs.

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DraftKings Value Running Back: Chase Edmonds — $4,800

Edmonds came back last week, and saw limited work as the Cardinals were shockingly blown out by the Lions. He should see more work this week though, as his health continues to improve. For much of the year, Edmonds was the preferred 3rd down/passing game back for the Cardinals. The Colts feature one of the league’s best run defenses (fourth in DVOA) but have struggled against the pass, ranking 16th. Coupled with the tight one-point spread, Edmonds should be the more productive back for Arizona this week. He’s the best back under $6,000 for value in Awesemo’s projections on the slate.

FanDuel Value Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman Jr. — $6,400

Pittman has a team-leading 23.69% target share for the Colts this year. He’s clearly Wentz’s favorite option, which should pay dividends with the Colts needing to throw the ball more than usual in this one. He averages 10 targets per game in Colts losses this season, compared to less than six in his wins. This makes him a solid pairing with our FanDuel quarterback choice of Murray. Arizona getting out to a lead means Murray is likely playing well, but in turn means the Colts are throwing more — particularly to Pittman. Pittman trails only Davante Adams — the most expensive wideout — in value in Awesemo’s projections.

DraftKings Value Wide Receiver: Christian Kirk — $5,600

Kirk saw a season-high 12 targets in Week 15, the Cardinals first without alpha receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who’s done for the (regular) season. While there’s no guarantee that continues this week, it’s still a good sign for Arizona’s plans for life post-Hopkins. As mentioned in the Edmonds write-up, the Colts are more easily beaten through the air. That makes pairing him and Edmonds (the passing-down back) with Wentz (our DraftKings quarterback selection) a low-cost correlated stack for DraftKings. Kirk trails only Pittman in value in Awesemo’s projections, but playing Pittman as well makes sense in this one.

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