I’m thankful for one last thing this fall, that Week 13 of the NFL DFS season is going to be normal, relatively speaking. We still have a Tuesday game this week, and we still have a few players dealing with COVID-19 related fallout and a number of injury situations to monitor, but at least we know when the games will take place this time around. This week’s slate of games is loaded for bear with a number of excellent opportunities for stacking your NFL DFS picks. The optimizer groups below will help dig in. If you haven’t been with us all season, the goal is always to shape the slate toward Awesemo’s Top Stacks tool for DraftKings and FanDuel
I recommend building with these groups and the Top Stacks tool hand-in-hand. The intent is to provide a setup that will get us to properly leveraged distributions of the best teams. It is important to keep this direction in mind as you’re building your lineups. If your style of play leans more conservative or if you would like to focus on only specific sets of players or stacks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups you will need to customize things further.
Several people have asked recently about secondary stacks that force specific high-end skill players into combinations with others. This is a viable strategy and something that I utilize, though I have been reluctant to include it in order to keep things straightforward. My approach to this is typically to create booster groups that increase the projections of the players I want in the mix based on another skill player’s activation as the key player. These tend to differ based on pricing discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel, so be wary as you go between sites; the bumps may not translate the same way.
Another recent question has focused on limiting to a specific subset of running backs to utilize within a larger crunch. This question typically comes in a week with a huge running back performance or two like we saw in Week 12. The simple approach would be to limit the running back player pool to a smaller set of players while removing any backs from groups. Add very heavy randomness to all of the backs and set ownership caps on the highest projected options. This should create a distribution pool that achieves more breadth of random running back selections but will make the overall pool of lineups less optimal.
NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 13 – Sunday Update
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update
We have fewer gigantic changes so far this week, with the exception of the quarterback situation in Miami. Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to once again be giving up the position to Tua Tagovailoa as the rookie returns from a thumb injury. Everything has been accounted for to this point, which took some doing on FanDuel in particular. Boosts have been added for all in-group players where relevant. Pay attention to your tight end exposures this week; I am getting some oddball results in crunches given the overall weakness at the position.Â
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake (Both backs are seeing targets in the passing game so we will leave them in place for the first cut. Larry Fitzgerald remains on the COVID-19 list and is likely to miss Week 13)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds (I’m ok without the tight ends or running backs given the dual timeshares, but they can and should be included in some versions of this run-back)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least one
Group: Julio Jones (+15%), Calvin Ridley (+15%), Hayden Hurst (-25%), Russell Gage (Julio Jones and Todd Gurley are set to return for the Falcons. I wouldn’t mind a few slices of Gurley with my Ryan stacks, but it is not something I plan to force in every crunch)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas (+15%), Alvin Kamara (+15%), Emmanuel Sanders (+15%), Jared Cook (-25%)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky
Setting: At least one (I was considering making this “at most” but the holes in the Lions’ secondary are massive enough for even Trubisky to put up a good start that supports multiple skill players. I don’t want to force it with two, but I won’t reject it off-hand)
Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney (+25%), Anthony Miller (+25%), David Montgomery (I would be fine adding either tight end or both to this group to spread things out a bit further)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Danny Amendola, Marvin Jones, Quintez Cephus, T.J. Hockenson (-35%) (pulling this down to just the passing game)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Brandon Allen
Setting: At least one (lowered)
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard (Joe Mixon will miss Week 13 fantasy football. Drew Sample is the tight end in this offense if you want to mix him in to get some variance at the position but be careful with exposures, I was getting far too much of him regardless of boosts)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Geisicki (-15%), Jakeem Grant (+35%), Myles Gaskin (-25%) (Mack Hollins and Lynn Bowden are additional receiver dart throws in the Dolphins offense)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At most one
Group: Jarvis Landry (+15%), Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins (+15%) (Harrison Bryant could be added here as an alternate tight end. Both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are more in play as individuals than in stacks for Week 13 NFL DFS)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown (+25%), Corey Davis (+25%), Adam Humphries, Anthony Firkser
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: At least one
Group: Danny Amendola (+25%), Marvin Jones (+25%), Quintez Cephus (+25%), T.J. Hockenson (-35%), Kerryon Johnson (Kenny Golladay will miss Week 13 and the Lions waived Marvin Hall. Mohamed Sanu was removed from the original version, Quintez Cephus was added)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney (+25%), Anthony Miller (+25%), David Montgomery
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least two
Group: Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan (-25%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones (-25%) (I wasn’t getting enough Jones on his own at running back on either FanDuel and Draftkings this week so we’re including him with a negative bump)
Opposing Setting: At least two
Group: Dallas Goedert, Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor, Miles Sanders, Greg Ward, Zach Ertz (I prefer Goedert to Ertz here, but would take some shares of the latter)
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, David Johnson, Keke Coutee (+35%), Jordan Akins (David Johnson is set to make his return just as Will Fuller was lost for the season. Cooks will be extremely popular across NFL DFS this week)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Mo Alie-Cox (Jonathan Taylor is due back from the COVID-19 list, though his lack of involvement in the passing game renders him non-mandatory in the run-back spot)
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton (-15%), Mo Alie-Cox (-25%) (Feel free to decide between the tight ends, Burton is seeing more red zone volume while Cox is on the field more often. I am not going to force Jonathan Taylor here either, if someone is catching the ball out of the Colts backfield it will most likely be Hines)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, David Johnson, Keke Coutee (+35%), Jordan Akins (-15%)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Mike Glennon
Setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson, D.J. Chark (+25%), Keelan Cole (+25%), Laviska Shenault (+25%), Chris Conley (+25%) (I would run a few sets with Tyler Eifert in this group but he is coming up too frequently for my liking, be sure to watch his exposure caps closely, I don’t want much of him)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook (-40%), Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Kyle Rudolph
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least one
Group: Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor (+25%), Henry Ruggs (+25%), Hunter Renfrow (+25%) (Josh Jacobs is slated to miss Week 13 with an ankle injury, Devontae Booker should be extremely popular, I don’t think we have to force him here)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims
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Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least two
Group: Keenan Allen (+25%), Austin Ekeler (-40%), Mike Williams (+25%), Hunter Henry (-25%), Jalen Guyton (+25%), Tyron Johnson (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry, James White
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods (+15%), Josh Reynolds (+25%), Tyler Higbee (-10%), Gerald Everett (-10%)(We don’t need to force the running backs with their limited volume)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa (Ryan Fitzpatrick will return to the bench as the rookie is due back from his thumb injury)
Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki (-25%), Jakeem Grant (+35%), Myles Gaskin, Mack Hollins (+35%), Lynn Bowden (+35%) (Myles Gaskin is due to return for Week 13)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Giovani Bernard, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Kyle Rudolph (-15%), Chad Beebe, (Irv Smith is out again which should force additional volume to Kyle Rudolph. Adam Thielen returns as a big weapon in the Vikings passing game)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Chris Conley
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd (+25%), N’Keal Harry (+25%), James White
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler (-50%), Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Taysom Hill
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook (I can take or leave Latavius Murray in the group after his big Week 12, I will look for some individual shares)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, Todd Gurley, Russell Gage
New York Giants
Key Player: Colt McCoy (Daniel Jones is unlikely to go in Week 13, be sure to change this, McCoy will be cheap on DraftKings and FanDuel but points are a lot to ask)
Setting: At most one (lowered)
Group: Sterling Shepard (+25%), Darius Slayton (+25%), Evan Engram, Golden Tate (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, David Moore (Josh Gordon removed from previous version)
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Darren Waller (-25%), Nelson Agholor (+15%), Hunter Renfrow (+25%), Henry Ruggs (+25%)
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Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Carson Wentz
Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Travis Fulgham (+25%), Jalen Reagor (+25%), Greg Ward (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least two
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore (+15%), Chris Carson (-25%) (Jacob Hollister seems to be the preferred tight end but Will Dissly could steal targets, I’m getting both without adding them in the group. Once again, mind your tight end exposures carefully this week)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Evan Engram
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown (+25%), Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, Anthony Firsker (-15%) (If you didn’t get enough Derrick Henry last week adding him here isn’t the answer, try increasing randomness or boosting his projection with a separate booster group)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Austin Hooper
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