NFL Prime Time Games: Showdown Week 2 Thursday Night Football | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and Draftkings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights, we will be providing a free analsis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Thursday Night slate between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, with thoughts on Odell Beckham, Joe Mixon and more picks for your NFL DFS lineups.

Don’t forget to check out the NFL DFS Live Before Lock Show with Alex Baker and Kyle Dvorchak at 7:30 p.m. ET. Every single-game slate we’ll have a live before lock show for you for the 2020 season.

NFL DFS Picks: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.0), O/U 43.5

This iteration of the Battle for Ohio brings us two winless teams. Cleveland got worked 38-6 by the Ravens and remain without a victory in their last 16 season openers. Cincinnati gave up 10 points in the final frame, succumbing to the visiting Chargers 16-13. The top selection of the 2020 draft checks in as a QB16-20 range in most projection systems this week. We know he can be effective on the ground, and inexperienced quarterbacks often are quick to scramble when under pressure.

Cincinnati Bengals: 18.75

Quarterback

Rookie Joe Burrow was 23-of-36 for 193 yards and one interception. The bright spot was that he rushed for 46 yards on eight carries and scored a touchdown. Outside of this, there is not much to say that will be incredibly insightful. Burrow is one of two starting quarterbacks in this game, and while he may have more raw talent, this is just his second time facing an NFL-caliber defense. 

Running Back

Last week the Browns were solid, allowing the Ravens to rush for just 111 yards on 30 carries. Last year Cleveland had the 30th-ranked rushing DVOA, and we can expect the Bengals to rely on Joe Mixon heavily to ease the burden on his rookie quarterback. This is Mixon’s fourth season, and he is coming off back-to-back 1,100-yard rushing campaigns. Last week he had 69 yards on 19 carries and caught one of his two targets for two yards. Only Mixon and Giovani Bernard saw any offensive snaps at the running back position.

Things are looking as expected, with Mixon seeing the bulk of the work. For the single-game contests, Bernard is in the mix as a differentiation play only. Most of his upside would be tied to an in-game injury to Mixon.

AwesemoOdds Ben Rasa’s Prop Pick of the Day

Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa gives his best prop pick of the day for you to build your sports betting card around. You can also check out the available player props on OddsShopper by Awesemo.com.

Wide Receiver

It was nice to see veteran A.J. Green back in action after he missed the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury that just wouldn’t heal. It is clear that he is still the WR1 on this team, but the experience that Tyler Boyd gained in Green’s absence will be invaluable.

Last season Cleveland was in the middle of the pack with the 18th-ranked passing DVOA. They were picked apart by Lamar Jackson, who was 20-of-25 for 275 yards and three scores. Marquise Brown and Willie Snead  got the bulk of the catches and yards with Mark Andrews getting two of the three touchdowns. John Ross managed to remain upright, which is no small feat. DFS gamers are well aware of his game-breaking ability and his in-game injury history. 

Burrows should be good for a couple long completion, and any of the main three Cincinnati wideouts could be the fortuitous recipients. On a short week it will be interesting to see if Green maintains his snap share, which was markedly behind both Boyd and Ross. This should not impact his upside, but it does take some of the stability out of his floor projection probability.

Tight End

C.J. Uzomah was solid with four receptions for 45 yards on five targets. Last year he saw the vast majority of the workload after Tyler Eifert went down in Week 4 and Tyler Kroft in Week 5. Uzomah was on the field for 72% of the snaps with fellow tight ends Drew Sample 35% and Cethan Carter 1% well behind. Sample is beginning his second season and he has just five career receptions.

Defense/Special Teams

The Bengals managed to sack Tyrod Taylor twice last week but they did not have any takeaways. Last year Cleveland allowed just shy of three sacks per game. They were seventh with 28 turnovers with 21 interceptions and seven fumbles lost. We have seen teams on the short weeks implode, and the Bengals are an intriguing differentiation option on DraftKings. For perspective they are coming in as the DST12-15 in most projection systems. Baker Mayfield‘s 21 interceptions were behind only the 30 of Jameis Winston last year.

Cleveland Browns: 24.75

Quarterback

Mayfield looked flummoxed last week against the Ravens, who held him in check with 21-of-39 passing and 189 yards with one touchdown and one pick. On the ground he rushed twice for three yards while also ceding a pair of sacks. This week projection systems are not giving him any love, as he is the QB23-27 across the board. Cincinnati held Tyrod Taylor in check for most of the day, and Mayfield has a similar skill level. One interesting tidbit for the third-year signal-caller is that he rushed for three touchdowns last season. The Bengals had a bottom-three DVOA last season, and there have not been many dramatic changes.

Running Back

In an intriguing twist, Kareem Hunt technically saw more time on the field than Nick Chubb. The Browns did not line both up in the backfield on any plays during Week 1. Though Chubb had more routes, he had just one target, which he caught for six yards. On the ground Hunt had 13 for 72 yards and six targets for nine yards. Chubb was still solid with 10 carries for 60 yards, but this situation could be more of an evenly split than anyone imagined heading into official action.

Wide Receiver

There was no surprise in Week 1 with veterans Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry leading the wide receiver corps. This will be a much tougher test on the road for the Bengals than Sunday’s home matchup with the Chargers. Tight end David Njoku hauled in the lone touchdown, but he is now in the injured reserve with a sprained MCL. While Austin Hooper is more than capable as a replacement, the familiarity between Mayfield, Beckham and Landry give the latter two the advantage Thursday.

On an interesting note, KhaDarel Hodge is just $400 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. While he is well behind Beckham and Landry, he was on the field for just over half of the snaps in Week 1.

Tight End

As mentioned above, Njoku is on injured reserve, so offseason acquisition Austin Hooper will be the main option at this position. Hooper caught both of his targets last week for 15 yards. The former Falcon is in play on both FanDuel ($8,000) and DraftKings ($6,800) as a differentiation play. As a Flex option he is coming in around 20% on both sites. 

Fourth-round rookie Harrison Bryant is the minimum $2,500 on DraftKings, which provides incredible flexibility. On FanDuel he is also the minimum, but at $5,000 this is not as good of a deal.

Defense/Special Teams

This week the Browns are a fringe top-10 DST against rookie Joe Burrow. In 2019 this unit averaged 2.4 sacks and 1.3 takeaways per game. We know that rookie quarterbacks are prone to panicked throws and this bodes well for the return touchdown potential.

Related NFL DFS Content

• Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
• NFL DFS Showdown Strategy Week 2: Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• From the Slot: FREE Week 2 NFL DFS Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades
• Cover the Field: WR vs CB Matchups for Week 2 NFL DFS | Julio Jones
• NFL Week 2 Survivor Picks + Strategy | Titans or Bucs?
• NFL Data Deep-Dive: Recapping All The Week 1 Data (FREE This Week Only)
• Awesemo’s NFL DFS Projections (PREMIUM)
• Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s Top Stack Tool (PREMIUM)

TNF NFL DFS Showdown + Single Game Strategy

This will be our first foray into a short-week matchup. Not having a raucous and packed stadium will help Burrow, but this is still just his second game.

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key.

This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Single Game NFL DFS Rankings

Notable Inactives: Auden Tate, K Austin Seibert (this was expected)

Top 10

1. Joe Burrow: Clearly the most dynamic option on the field, even as a rookie on the road in just his second start.
2. Baker Mayfield: We know that the quarterbacks are key in Showdown contests, and both of the ones tonight have rushing upside.
3. Odell Beckham: At some point the squeaky wheel narrative is going to pay off. In the meantime the slight discount on both sites compared to our next guy have him coming as the third option.
4. Joe Mixon: This is feeling a little chalky, but it is what it is with the way pricing is working out. Keep in mind these rankings are for building one lineup in the more favorably sized contests. Mixon should see a heavy workload in an effort to keep the burden off of his rookie quarterback.
5. Kareem Hunt/Nick Chubb: On DraftKings Hunt is pacing with backfield mate Nick Chubb with both projecting as 32-36% in the Flex spot. On FanDuel and the half-PPR, Chubb is $4,000 more expensive but still coming with 5-7% more popularity than Hunt. This is more about personal preference, mine would be to roll with Hunt.
6. Cody Parkey/Randy Bullock: In what could be a low-scoring game, field goals take on more weight. The masses will look here for some salary relief as well.
7. KhaDarel Hodge/Harrison Bryant: Hodge should be on the field for half the snaps. He is free on DraftKings at $400 and the best value play on FanDuel at $6,000. Bryant is the pivot away if we see skyrocketing popularity on Hodge. There are other ways to go with more established players like those listed in the Secondary Plays below, but that is where the masses are going to end up as well.
8. Cleveland DST: Home team against a rookie quarterback making his second NFL start. To quote contemporary poet Austin Danger Powers, “Yes Please!”
9. Jarvis Landry: I prefer him on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring. Keep an eye on his status as he is dealing with a sore hip.
10. C.J. Uzomah: A combination of salary and differentiation from the similar price point of John Ross give him the nod in tournaments.

Secondary Plays

1. A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd/John Ross: With all three of these receivers healthy and their rookie quarterback, it is hard to have strong feelings for any of them. Ross is not going to be sneaky, as we are all aware of his game-breaking upside when healthy. Green and Boyd are in direct competition for targets, and their relatively similar price and projected popularity have them as a draw on both sites.
2. Austin Hooper: Steps into the TE1 role with Njoku on the shelf, but still competing with Landry, Beckham and Hunt for target opportunities.
3. Cincinnati DST: We know that Mayfield is prone to mistakes, and this could be a slugfest where sacks and turnovers are valuable and a return touchdown leading our entries up the leaderboard.
4. Giovani Bernard: We should see him getting the 25-30% share of a backfield committee.

Lottery Ticket

1. Drew Sample: Slight advantage in this tier because of his price. The second-year man is touchdown dependent to be an impact tonight.
2. Auden Tate/Tee Higgins/Alex Erickson: Wild cards at best, and I prefer Hodge/Bryant as listed in the top 10 above. Erickson is the listed punt returner for the Bengals.
3. D’Ernest Johnson/Rashard Higgins: Will at least be on the field from time to time. Higgins gets a boost of five spots in the rare circumstance that Landry (hip) is out.
4. JoJo Natson: Returning punts and kicks for the Browns. 
5. Andy Janovich and Cethan Carter: Literally go buy a lottery ticket.

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets, NFL DFS picks and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.