The NFL schedulers are capping off Week 1 with Russell Wilson heading back to square off against his former team. This should be a fun environment, even if the Seahawks are now one of the worst teams in the league. Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 1 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Broncos and Seahawks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 1 Monday Night Football
Denver will be without linebacker Josey Jewell (calf) and KJ Hamler (knee) is questionable. Seattle is missing defensive lineman Alton Robinson (knee) and cornerback Artie Burns, with rookie Kenneth Walker III questionable after having hernia surgery in the preseason.
Denver Broncos: 25.5 Points
Quarterback
Russell Wilson is heading back to Seattle in his first game in a Denver uniform and he has never been shy about holding a grudge. Ultimately, head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider won the organizational battle to continue playing football with a focus on the rushing game. This seems pretty short-sighted, as they no longer have the Legion of Boom defense and of course a dynamic signal caller like Wilson, who was one of the best deep ball passers in the league, which was key for both keeping extra defenders out of the box and making play-action work oh so well for the last decade plus. Wilson should have a cakewalk tonight against a patchwork defense and with a receiving corps that rivals those of his Seattle days.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon III and second-year back Javonte Williams will be sharing the load in the backfield tonight. Both are capable running backs who also contribute to the passing game. Last season, this situation was truly an even split with Gordon playing on 514 snaps and Williams 551, while 81 went to a couple of reserves and the fullbacks.
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Williams looks like he has something of a lead in this committee and the Stokastic projections are giving him the nod in a 60/40 shared backfield. Everything will of course be influenced by touchdowns and both backs are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. Both DraftKings and FanDuel are placing a premium on Williams, which keeps Gordon as a viable point-per-dollar option tonight.
Wide Receiver
Even if KJ Hamler (knee) is unable to take the field, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton should thrive against a sketchy defense and of course with the best passer they have played with in the NFL now at the helm. Jeudy has the slight edge in projected fantasy points with a salary discount compared to Sutton, though this comes with increased interest from the field. Regardless of Hamler’s status, both receivers should see eight to 10 targets and have a decent chance for the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings. If Hamler sits, we could see a minimum salary option be revealed, though among Jalen Virgil, Montrell Washington and Tyrie Cleveland it is likely to be a lottery ticket situation.
Tight End
Wilson has always looked to tight ends in the red zone, which keeps everyone in play for touchdown hunting. Between the 20s however, it is likely that Albert Okwuegbunam will get most of the looks. Eric Tomlinson and Eric Saubert are in the mix as $200 players on DraftKings and even if they get a target or two and zero catches, they are still “worth” their salary.
Defense/Special Teams
The Broncos should be able to impose their will on the Seahawks tonight with a barely replacement-level quarterback and patchwork offensive line. It seems all but preordained that they will record a pick-six or scoop and score. Anything less than five combined sacks and turnovers will be a major disappointment in this matchup.
Seattle Seahawks: 18.5 Points
Quarterback
Geno Smith is the second-best quarterback in the player pool tonight. Okay, that ends the positive comments for now. Smith was the 39th selection of the 2013 NFL Draft, but tonight will be just the 35th start of his career. Last season he made three starts for Seattle when Wilson was out with an injury and his 190.3 passing yards and 1.3 aerial scores are a reasonable expectation for his go-forward fantasy baseline. The 31-year-old is not particularly mobile, suffering 13 sacks with six carries for 19 yards and a score.
Running Back
Rookie Kenneth Walker III did not practice this week, so it would be a surprise if he is active tonight. That means Rashaad Penny will be the featured option until he inevitably suffers an injury. In his four seasons, the former first-rounder has appeared in 37 games with all six of his starts coming last season after Chris Carson was sidelined with a neck injury. Penny is not typically utilized in the passing game, with just 23 career receptions. That means some combination of Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas will work as receivers and change of pace options. Both are in play on DraftKings, though on FanDuel with the higher minimum salary and half-point per reception scoring format, they are differentiation options at best for those making 50 or more lineups.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are fine receivers, however, their upside is going to be capped by a run-first head coach and sub-par quarterback. Each should see half a dozen targets, though neither is projected for more than 60 yards in the Stokastic system. Dee Eskridge and Marquise Goodwin will trade off plays when Seattle goes to a three wideout formation.
Tight End
Noah Fant will be making his debut for Seattle and splitting time with veteran Will Dissly. Neither is particularly intriguing, but they are each live for three receptions and 30 yards.
Defense/Special Teams
This unit may luck into a couple of sacks or a turnover, but it is hard to see them being a productive fantasy option at any point this season.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 1 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Russel Wilson: It is not even close.
- Jerry Jeudy: Now is the time for him to live up to all the hype.
- Courtland Sutton: Finally gets a good quarterback.
- Geno Smith: Far from sexy, but still one of two starting quarterbacks in the player pool.
- Rashaad Penny: Best bet for a Seattle touchdown.
- Denver D/ST: Anything less than double-digit fantasy points will be a surprise.
- Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams: Coin flip with the split workload.
- Albert Okwuegbunam: Now has the perfect quarterback to utilize his skillset.
- DK Metcalf: Can score from anywhere on the field, hampered by his quarterback.
- Tyler Lockett: Could be a long season for the deep threat with a game manager under center.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- KJ Hamler: If active, he leads this section, no need for Denver to rush him back.
- Jason Myers: 13-of-18 from 50+ over the last four seasons.
- Brandon McManus: 15-of-24 50+ during the last two years.
- Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas: Should see the field a fair amount when Seattle ultimately is playing from behind.
- D’Wayne Eskridge: Old as a 24-year-old rookie, but the Seahawks like him and he does have second-round draft capital behind him.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Noah Fant and Will Dissly: Combined projection of 5.5 targets and the under is very live.
- Seattle D/ST: Will be on the field a lot.
- Eric Tomlinson and Eric Saubert: Both in play as touchdown lottery tickets with Wilson at the helm.
- Marquise Goodwin: Should be active, but shaky workload.
- Jalen Virgil, Montrell Washington, Colby Parkinson, Andrew Beck, Penny Hart and Mike Boone: Half of this motley crew will be inactive, but they are all $200 on DraftKings.
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