With Christmas this Sunday, the main slate for Week 16 will take place this Saturday and features 10 games. This NFL DFS first look article provides an early look at DraftKings and FanDuel main slates and evaluates some of the top options at each position.
NFL First Look: Week 16 NFL DFS Picks
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Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. SEA ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
With Jalen Hurts (shoulder) likely to sit this week, Mahomes is the undisputed No.1 option at quarterback. He leads the league in touchdowns passing (35), ranks second in yards per attempt (8.2) and fifth in DraftKings points per dropback (0.63). Mahomes has topped 30 DraftKings points in five of his past eight starts and is likely to reach this feat against this Seahawks defense that is the ninth-worst-graded unit on PFF this season. The Chiefs’ implied team total is the highest on the slate by 3 points (29.5 points) and this game’s total is the largest on the board (49 points). In totals of 48 points or more this season, Mahomes has exceeded 30 DraftKings points at a 60% clip.
Sam Darnold, CAR vs. DET ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Going against this Lions defense that is giving up the most yards per pass in the league (7.6) has been a fantasy cheat code for quarterbacks this season and Darnold has to be considered to be considered at these low price tags. Notably, 9/14 quarterbacks to face Detroit this season have scored over 20 DraftKings points and Darnold has been solid since taking over for the Panthers, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt and throwing for three touchdowns and no picks in his first three starts of the season. Plus, Darnold has been decently active as a rusher, with nine carries across these three starts, including three red zone carries. Over 20 fantasy points is a realistic outcome for Darnold, and the combination of him and D.J. Moore (below) should be a very low-owned stack in GPPs.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry, TEN vs. HOU ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)
Henry is worth every penny this week. He is leading the league in carries per game (21.1), ranks third in red zone attempts (36) and is logging 65.4% of the snaps this season. Additionally, Henry is running a route on 43% of his team’s dropbacks and has garnered a target a target on 23% of those routes. Overall, no back is producing more DraftKings points per snap than Henry this season (0.53). For this Sunday, the Titans will be hosting the Texans and are in desperate need of a win, as losers of four in a row. Not only is this Houston defense the second-worst-graded unit on PFF, but it has also given up the most touchdowns rushing to running backs (17) and fifth-most yards per carry this season (4.9). Tennessee’s implied team total ranks fifth on the slate (23.5 points), and they are 7-point favorites. Henry has been a beast when favored over the last three seasons, scoring 22.5 DraftKings points per game (22 games).
Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. NYG ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Cook also gets the luxury of competing as a home favorite this weekend, with the Vikings as 3-point home favorites over the Giants. Among running backs, Cook ranks second in snap rate (76%), sixth in carries per game (16.4) and fifth in red zone carries this season (34). As a receiver, he has a target on 14% of his routes while running a route on 66% of his team’s dropbacks. No defense has allowed more yards per carry than the Giants this season (5.4), and Cook is averaging 21 DraftKings points per game when competing as a home favorite (31 games) in his career. He is a particularly easy choice on DraftKings ($7,200) this weekend.
Ezekiel Elliot, DAL vs. PHI ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
The Cowboys boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate (26.5 points) and Elliot is the best way to gain exposure to their offense this weekend. He is averaging 15.6 carries per game this season – which is 55.5% of Dallas’ running back carries – while playing 56.5% of the snaps. Elliot has impressively seen 28 red zone carries in only 12 starts this season and this Eagles defense he is going against is yielding the eighth-most yards per carry (4.7). The Cowboys are 6-point home favorites in this divisional matchup and over the last two seasons, Elliot is averaging 18.5 DraftKings points per game as a home favorite (17 games).
Wide Receivers
D.K. Metcalf, SEA vs. KC ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
On top of leading the Seahawks in target share this season (26%), Metcalf ranks third in red zone targets (22) and 18th in targets greater than 20 yards (17). Now, with Tyler Lockett (hand) out this weekend, Metcalf should see his already strong role grow to new heights, especially with Seattle likely to rely on their passing game heavily, as 9.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs. This game has the highest total on the slate (49 points), and though it came when Russell Wilson was his quarterback, Metcalf racked up 12 targets in the only career game he has played without Lockett. Metcalf is underpriced for the expanded role he should handle this Saturday and is a no-brainer in this slate-high total.
D.J. Moore, CAR vs. DET ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
With Darnold under center for Carolina for their last three games, Moore has been his primary weapon, leading the Panthers with a 26.8% target share, including seven targets over 20 yards and four red zone targets. Moore has found paydirt in two of these past three games and now gets the best matchup in fantasy football, facing the Lions, who are surrendering the most yards per pass in the league this season (7.6). This tilt’s total is the fourth highest on the slate (44.5 points) and Moore is far too cheap for his upside this outstanding spot.
Drake London, ATL vs. BAL ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
With Desmond Ridder getting his first career start this past Sunday, London saw elite usage, leading the Falcons with 11 targets, which was a massive 42.3% target share. Ridder will remain Atlanta’s quarterback going forward, and he should continue to rely on London given Atlanta’s lack of weapons with Kyle Pitts (knee) on IR. Facing a Ravens defense that has yielded the fifth-most catches (195) and fourth-most yards to receivers this season (2,492), London has a much higher ceiling than this low salaries suggest and is one of the best receiver values on the slate.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce, KC vs. SEA ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Stacking Mahomes to Kelce is a must this weekend. In addition to this game’s total (49 points) and the Chiefs’ implied team total being the high marks of this slate (29.5 points), the Seahawks are dreadful at defending tight ends, allowing the third-most yards (857) and fifth-most touchdowns to the position (8). Kelce is leading Kansas City with a 24.3% target share this season and leads the league in red zone targets (28). He is a lock to find the end zone at least once in this perfect matchup and needs to be a core plays this weekend. In totals of at least 48 points this season, Kelce has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in 7 of 11 starts.
Chig Okonkwo, TEN vs. HOU ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
Okonkwo has seen his role grow as the season winds down and is underpriced for his upside in this prime matchup against the Texans, who are allowing the sixth-most yards per pass (7.1). Over the last three weeks, Okonkwo has a target on 26% of his routes – including two red zone targets — while running a route 60% of his team’s dropbacks. He is contributing 13.1 DraftKings points per game during this three-game stretch and is the best pay-down option available at tight end this week.
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