Best MLB Bets Today: Baseball Prop Picks & Predictions Saturday 6/11

It is Saturday, June 11th, 2022. While we have a few games playing this afternoon, there are 13 that are being played at 4:05 p.m. ET or later. Of those games, Madison Bumgarner against Zack Wheeler is an interesting matchup and Frankie Montas pitching against Jose Ramirez should be pretty fun. Clayton Kershaw is back from injury and dueling fellow lefty Sam Long from the San Francisco Giants in this exciting rivalry series. In the late nightcap at 10:10 p.m. ET, rookie of the year candidate Mackenzie Gore pitches against the Rockies, while in Seattle the odds-defying Michael Wacha and the Boston Red Sox take on rookie George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners. There is a lot going on tonight, and OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips for making MLB predictions for today, Saturday, June 11. Below are three strikeout props, two home run props and one total base prop for the best MLB prop bets today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Kevin Gausman O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

Kevin Gausman is pitching against the Detroit Tigers in Detroit. He has a 27.5% strikeout rate while Detroit strikes out the fifth-most in baseball at 24.2%. With Gausman averaging 1.13 strikeouts per inning, it would take 5.1 innings pitched on average to hit the over on this bet. Factoring in that Detroit strikes out more often than the average team, it is very plausible the over could be reached sooner than 5.1 innings. Gausman has had just one start that went less than five innings, which was his last outing against Minnesota. Detroit is a big drop-off from Minnesota. Awesemo’s MLB model gives the over a 74% chance of winning tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Kevin Gausman OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-139)

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Clayton Kershaw O/U 4.5 Strikeouts

Clayton Kershaw will pitch to the San Francisco Giants in Game 2 of this fantastic series between National League West rivals. Kershaw has a 29.4% strikeout rate this season while the Giants are tied for the 15th-highest in strikeout rate at 22.3%. On average it would take 4.2 innings pitched for Kershaw to reach five strikeouts. While this is his first start since May 7th, Kershaw had gone five or more innings in each of his four starts. There is word that he may go no more than five innings, so this prop could be close here. The model gives him a 67% chance of going over 4.5 strikeouts tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Clayton Kershaw OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Jose Ramirez O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Jose Ramirez O/U 0.5 Home Runs

Despite the fact that Cleveland is facing Frankie Montas tonight, the model likes Jose Ramirez‘s chances of hitting a home run relative to the odds offered. The model gives Ramirez a 21% chance of hitting a home run while the +450 odds imply an 18.2% chance. Montas is allowing 1.02 HR/9 but is otherwise having a great season with a 2.86 xFIP. The matchup does get better for Ramirez when the bullpen comes into the game. Oakland’s bullpen has the fourth-highest ERA in baseball, and Ramirez should get one or two at-bats against that bullpen. Ramirez is just hitting the cover off the ball. He has a .394 OBP, and .353 ISO. He is only striking out just 6.8% of the time. A total bases bet makes sense, as he is making a lot of contact. He could easily finish the game with a double or two hits with the way he has been playing. Stack the total bases bet as the main one and sprinkle some on the home run. Cash both if he hits a home run and profit if the ball hits the wall or he gets two hits.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120); Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450)

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Rowdy Tellez O/U 0.5 Home Runs

This is the top prop bet of the day according to the model with a 38% expected ROI. The Brewers are facing Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals. Corbin has a 4.14 xFIP, allowing 1.04 HR/9 and a 44.7% hard-hit rate. The model gives Rowdy Tellez a 23% chance of hitting a home run today while the sportsbooks are giving him a 16.7% chance. A bet on the over to exploit the 6.3% difference is a positive EV bet.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Rowdy Tellez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500)

Charlie Morton O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

Charlie Morton is having the worst season of his career. He has a 4.54 xFIP and a strikeout rate of just 22%. The good news is that he is facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team with the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 25%. This is a high prop for Morton, who has gone over this total twice in 11 starts. A total at 5.5 would be a sharper number. Regardless, the Awesemo model gives Morton a median projection of 5.4 strikeouts and a 72% chance of staying under 6.5 strikeouts tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Charlie Morton UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-134)

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