With it being a Saturday, there are baseball games all throughout the day today, with 13 of them starting at 4:05 p.m. ET or later. With all of the different games going on, there are a lot of choices in how to bet the slate. OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips when it comes to making MLB predictions for today, Saturday, June 4. Below are two strikeout props, one home run prop and two total base props for the best MLB prop bets today.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Zack Wheeler O/U 7.5 Strikeouts
Zack Wheeler is having a strong season with a 3.11 xFIP, 27.5% strikeout rate and a 6.2% walk rate. His strikeout rate is higher than his career average (23.9%) and his walk rate is lower than his career average (7.6%). Today, he faces the Angels, the team that has scored the third-most runs in the American League and the fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.3%). With Wheeler averaging 1.13 strikeouts per inning on average, it would take between seven and 7.1 innings pitched to reach eight strikeouts on average. Awesemo’s MLB model projects Wheeler for 7.2 strikeouts and gives him a 57% chance of staying under 7.5 strikeouts today.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Zack Wheeler UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-101)
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Luis Garcia O/U 4.5 Strikeouts (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM: Just bet on ANY MLB Game)
Luis Garcia takes on the Kansas City Royals in the next game of the series. Garcia has a 25.5% strikeout rate, averaging 1.05 strikeouts per inning. Although the Royals’ offense has not been good, they have just the eighth-lowest strikeout rate at 20.8%, so one has to downgrade Garcia’s matchup here. On average, it would take between 4.2 and five innings pitched to reach five or more strikeouts. Garcia has gone five innings or more in six of his nine starts this year. He has reached six innings twice and seven innings once. This prop is too low, even in a tougher strikeout matchup. Awesemo’s MLB model gives Garcia a 60% chance of going over this total.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Luis Garcia OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Joey Gallo O/U 0.5 Home Runs (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM: Just bet on ANY MLB Game)
Joey Gallo has looked lost at the plate. He has a .282 on-base percentage, his ISO is .131 and he has just five home runs on the season. He is facing a pitcher in Beau Brieske that is allowing 2.5 HR/9 on the season. According to Awesemo’s MLB model, Gallo has a 73% chance of not hitting a home run, and the -222 odds imply a 68.9% chance of not hitting a home run.
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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Joey Gallo UNDER 0.5 Home Runs (-222)
Juan Soto O/U 0.5 Total Bases
Juan Soto O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Juan Soto is in a favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle tonight. Soto has gotten off to a slow start this year, batting .223 with a .370 on-base percentage, both much lower than his .293 career batting average and .427 career on-base percentage. In Cincinnati, the weather should be great for batters: 83 degrees with the wind blowing out to right field. Having a total base prop of 0.5 is ridiculous for Soto, so that should be a must-bet every time the board shows it. With the home run prop, Awesemo’s MLB model gives Soto a 21% chance of hitting a home run tonight. The +425 odds of hitting a home run imply a 19.05% chance. That nearly 2% difference is enough to warrant a bet. It is recommended to make a normal-sized bet for the total base prop and then a smaller bet on the home run prop so you can profit if the first one hits but not the second one.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-179); Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
Eduardo Escobar O/U 0.5 Total Bases
Eduardo Escobar O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Eduardo Escobar faces Walker Buehler tonight in Los Angeles. Buehler is not the pitcher fans have been accustomed to seeing the past few seasons. His 20% strikeout rate is a career-worst, his 3.71 xFIP is the worst from him in this large of a sample of innings and his 39.7% hard-hit allowed rate is the highest he has had as well. Buehler is simply pitching more like an average pitcher as opposed to the above-average pitcher he has been in the past. Escobar has gotten off to a slower start this season. His .226 batting average is lower than his .255 career average, and his .132 ISO is lower than his .178 ISO over his career as well. These metrics should regress to his career averages over time. The total base prop is too low, and a small bet on the home run prop is warranted as well, as there is a 1% difference in his likelihood of hitting a home run and the odds the sportsbooks are offering.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Eduardo Escobar OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-150); OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+650)
Rowdy Tellez O/U 0.5 Home Runs (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM: Just Bet on ANY MLB Game)
Rowdy Tellez faces Mackenzie Gore, a pretty good prospect for the Padres. In 42 innings pitched, he has allowed 0.21 HR/9, but he does have a hard-hit allowed rate of 41.7%. Despite that, Awesemo’s MLB model gives Tellez a 23% chance of hitting a home run today and the +550 odds imply a 15.4% chance of hitting a home run. That large difference warrants a bet.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Rowdy Tellez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550)
