Thursday’s five-game NBA slate marks the final night of action before the All-Star break. Thus, it is last call until next week for those looking to lock in some NBA betting picks and prop bets. You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.
With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Thursday’s NBA action.
Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today
With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA betting player props is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!
Montrezl Harrell Under 6.5 Rebounds (-115, DraftKings)
Since being acquired by the Charlotte Hornets at the NBA trade deadline, Montrezl Harrell has delivered for his new team. The Hornets were in desperate need of rebounding help and Harrell has gotten minutes right away. Along with scoring in double figures in each of his first three games with Charlotte, Harrell has finished with no less than six boards. The last two contests saw him grab nine and seven rebounds in 29 and 34 minutes, respectively. Unfortunately, he could be in for a tough go of it on the glass tonight in a matchup against the Miami Heat.
In addition to playing suffocating defense, the Heat rank third in Rebound Rate on the season. Miami has successfully corralled 51.9% of available rebounds in games thus far. The fact that the Heat have been that solid on the boards despite being without center Bam Adebayo for a two-month stretch is quite impressive. When one takes into account the fact that Harrell has averaged 6.7 rebounds per game, he would need to exceed his average to clear tonight’s NBA player props threshold. Awesemo’s projection of 5.71 boards for Harrell comes up well short of the number. OddsShopper can help steer bettors to optimal -115 odds, at which the expected ROI for this prediction is valued at 22%.
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James Johnson Under 8.5 Points (-120, BetRivers)
The Brooklyn Nets will again be playing shorthanded tonight, however, the majority of primary absences impact the backcourt more than the post positions. Given this, and the fact that Brooklyn will be playing for the second time in as many nights, one has to imagine that James Johnson will see his playing time decrease after logging 32 minutes yesterday. Johnson was a key contributor in the Nets’ come-from-behind win on Wednesday, totaling 14 points on 50% shooting, along with seven boards and five assists. It is worth pointing out that the 12 shots Johnson attempted were the most he has taken in a game since January 26th. It seems reasonable to expect some regression to the mean on that front as well.
The other key point to make for this NBA player props handicap is the discrepancy in the line across the market. OddsShopper currently displays most sportsbooks listing Johnson’s scoring prop total at 9.5. Thus, bettors can obtain a full point of value by targeting the inflated NBA betting number. Awesemo projects Johnson to score only 8.31 points tonight. This creates a hefty win probability of 67% for the under. Even with -120 odds required to bet under 10.5, the expected ROI still sits at 22%.
Robert Covington Under 4.5 Rebounds (-105, Caesars)
Veteran forward Robert Covington has largely been ineffective since joining the Los Angeles Clippers prior to the trade deadline. So ineffective, in fact, that he has only seen 10, 12, 27 and 21 minutes of game action over L.A.’s last four contests. While Covington did surpass tonight’s NBA player props rebounding total of 4.5 with eight boards on Tuesday, it marked only the second time in the last six games that he has done so. While he has averaged 5.7 rebounds per game on the season, all signs point towards a steady decline of that number coming now that he is with the Clippers.
Along with his lackluster play, there simply is not the same need for Covington in L.A. as there was in Portland. As a result, a player who was averaging right around 30 minutes per game has been relegated to bench minutes. Even in a favorable matchup against the Houston Rockets tonight, Awesemo advises looking under Covington’s NBA betting prop for total rebounds. OddsShopper does show that the price is slightly juiced to the over, which helps the value on the opposite side. An exact projection of 4.22 rebounds carries a 15% ROI and a 59% win probability for the under.
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