The lone nationally televised matchup on Friday night’s NBA slate features an interesting cross-conference showdown between two playoff contenders. Both the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics have been playing solid basketball of late. However, only one team will be able to emerge from tonight’s clash with their winning streak still intact. The revamped OddsShopper is the perfect resource to help find the best NBA player props and NBA picks today for the Nuggets – Celtics matchup. Let’s take a look at Awesemo’s must-bet NBA betting tips tonight and projections for Nuggets superstar and reigning NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic.
With help from OddsShopper, the following column aims to find optimal odds and discusses some positive ROI NBA prop bets for Jokic in tonight’s matchup.
Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks | Nikola Jokic
With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player prop bets is fast and simple. All users must do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best NBA pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured Jokic props below.
Under 9.5 Assists (-125, DraftKings)
While Nikola Jokic has emerged as a legitimate triple-double threat on a nightly basis, the one stat category that lags behind in terms of season averages is his assists. Coming into Friday’s matchup, Jokic has dished out an average of 7.9 assists per game. Even with starting point guard Monte Morris set to miss tonight’s game, Jokic will be hard-pressed to record the double-digit assists necessary to top the NBA player props line of 9.5.
The key element to consider for this handicap is the defense of the opposition. The Celtics rank second in defensive efficiency this season, allowing all of 103.0 points per 100 possessions. It could realistically be an uphill battle for Jokic and all Nuggets players on the offensive end tonight. Furthermore, OddsShopper indicates that the NBA betting market is actually divided on this prop bet. While the consensus assists total for Jokic is 9.5, the number is set a full dime lower at some sportsbooks. Given the difficult defensive matchup, Awesemo only projects Jokic to have 7.46 assists, a mark that falls short of both his per-game average and the betting line. The result is a massive 78% win probability and 41% ROI on the under when bettors wager at optimal -125 odds.
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Under 24.5 Points (+100, Caesars)
Considering that Nikola Jokic’s season scoring average is 25.8 points per game, playing under tonight’s NBA betting total of 24.5 might seem crazy. However, bettors are again advised to factor in the stout defensive opponent that Jokic will have to contend with. In addition to the Celtics’ superb defensive efficiency ranking, both they and the Nuggets rank among the bottom-10 teams when it comes to Pace Factor. Entering Friday’s game, both squads use an average of only 99.0 possessions per game.
When one combines Boston’s defense with the anticipation of a slow tempo, playing under 24.5 points for Jokic tonight suddenly becomes much more reasonable. To top it all off, OddsShopper can help bettors locate favorable +100 odds, which offer up to 15 cents in additional value compared to other prices in the market. With the increased potential return factored in, OddsShopper gives this under prediction a 12% expected ROI value.
Over 12.5 Rebounds (-105, BetRivers)
The one NBA player prop offering for Nikola Jokic tonight that sets up with the over being the preferred side is his total rebounds. The prop total is admittedly a hefty one at 12.5 boards. This is also a line that Jokic has failed to eclipse in each of the Nuggets’ last three games. However, it also sits over one full rebound below the 13.6 that he has averaged on the season thus far. With a defensive game expected, there figure to be plenty of missed shots and rebounding opportunities as well.
Awesemo’s official NBA projections peg Jokic for 12.88 rebounds this evening. While the statistical advantage is slim to none, bettors can still nab a small positive ROI value when they make this wager at preferred -105 odds. Note that OddsShopper shows other NBA betting sportsbooks listing the price up to 10 cents higher.
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