Tonight, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will host Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 12 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 12 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Total: Over 46.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for money lines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point total of 48 points. BetMGM has the point total set to 46.5 points. The one-and-a-half-point difference makes the over a good bet.
Lamar Jackson Yards Passing: Under 237.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool is where to look before placing any prop bets. The model projects Lamar Jackson for 223.38 yards. When the total was at 240.5 yards, the model gave this bet a 69% expected win total and a 29% expected ROI. Even with the line decreasing by 3 yards, there is still value in the bet. Cleveland has the No. 8 pass defense, allowing an average of 215.4 yards per game.
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Jarvis Landry Yards Receiving: Over 44.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool projects Jarvis Landry for 57.6 yards. The expected win rate was 74% when the line was set to 40.5 yards. With a projection that is 13.1 yards more than BetMGM is offering, this is still a good bet to make. Landry has gone over this total just twice in seven games played but Baltimore has the No. 31 pass defense, allowing 281.1 yards per game.
Jarvis Landry Receptions: Over 4.50 (+100)
Landry is projected for 4.79 catches according to the Player Props Tool. When the odds for this bet was (+134), the expected ROI was 42%. Even with it dropped to (+100), there is still value in the bet. It has a 61% expected win rate. Landry has gone over the total in three out of seven games, but the last two games he caught four passes each.
Baker Mayfield Completions: Over 18.5 (-105)
This Baker Mayfield bet is correlative to the Jarvis Landry bet. If Landry is going to haul in at least five passes and go for over 44.5 yards, then it is more likely Baker Mayfield is having a good game too. The Player Props Tool projects 20.33 completions tonight. Because Mayfield has a 64% completion percentage on the season, he will need to attempt 29 passes at his completion rate to hit the over on this bet. The model gives this bet a 66% expected win rate and 31% expected ROI.
One-Game Parlay (+500)
With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. The top one-game parlay for this game is Landry over 49.5 yards receiving (57.60 projected) Mark Andrews under 55.50 yards (50.58 projected) and Mayfield over 219.5 yards passing (229.16 projected). If all three legs hit, it pays out 5x the buy-in.
Check out Stokastic's Best Bets home page for more sports betting picks and predictions.
