Tonight Deebo Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers will host Carson Wentz and the Indianapolis Colts. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 7 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 7 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Moneyline: Colts (+160)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current moneyline the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected moneyline should be, and the same for point totals and point spreads. The model gives the Colts a 40% chance of winning the game, and the (+160) means BetMGM is giving the Colts a 38.5% chance of winning. When a model gives a better chance of winning than the odds the sportsbook provides, it is a recommended bet.
Point Total: Over 42.5 (-110)
The model has an expected point total of 44 points, and the total at BetMGM is set to 42.5 points. When the line was 44 points, this was a bet to avoid. Since then, the total has moved down a full point and a half and now looks like a bet to fire off.
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards: Over 60.5 (-115)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Deebo Samuel is projected for 98.79 yards receiving, and this bet has a 79% chance of winning and a 48% expected ROI. Samuel averages 109.6 yards per game, his median is 93 yards, and he has hit over this mark in three out of five games. The Colts pass defense is No. 20 in the NFL, and opponents are averaging 255.5 yards passing against them per game.
Marlon Mack Rushing Yards: Over 12.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool projects Marlon Mack for 23.43 yards rushing. Mack is averaging 6.25 carries per game, with a median of five carries. If he gets five carries, he will have to average just 2.6 yards per carry to win the bet. The model gives a 76% chance to win the bet and an expected ROI of 43%.
Carson Wentz Passing Yards: Over 196.5 (-120)
The Player Props Tool projects Carson Wentz to pass for 232.23 yards passing. The over has a 76% chance of winning and a 40% expected ROI. Went averages 257.5 yards per game, with a median of 228 and a low of 194. Opponents are averaging 216.6 yards per game against San Francisco. Even if Wentz passes for what the 49ers average, that is still over the mark of 196.5.
One-Game Parlay (+425)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is Jimmy Garoppolo over 199.5 yards passing (237.61 projected), Jonathan Taylor under 69.5 yards rushing (62.49 projected) and Michael Pittman over 49.5 yards receiving (61.49 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 4.25x. Adding a point spread bet, such as Colts +4.5 (expected point spread is 3.3) to this one game parlay would turn it into a potential +950 bet, meaning a 9.5x payout if all four legs hit.
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