Obviously, betting futures has become a different ballgame since the beginning of the pandemic. Getting all of a team’s games in is no sure thing, and betting futures always comes with some added risk. But it looks like this upcoming NBA season is starting with some hope, and we could start to return to some sense of normalcy by the time the season is wrapping up. So, we need to dive into some of the NBA odds and NBA betting picks since the season is just around the corner.
The NBA schedule is set for 72 games, and we have only a first-half schedule so far, with more games to be added later. With that in mind, win totals look a little different. We need to adjust to 10 less games if you’re betting, and you also need to read the fine print to see how many games the team is required to play for action — I’ve seen different books at 68 games for action and 70 games for action.
Then there are also books like DraftKings that are just going to win percentage bets. Placing your wagers on DraftKings will ensure that you get action whether your team finishes the regular season playing 52 games or 72 games.
The Awesemo OddsShopper tool helps us identify the best books to place future wagers throughout the season, so make sure you continue to check there for the best place to make your bet before you lock it in.
While I have my eyes on two win total plays to lock in, I’ll be continuing a column like this throughout the season, examining NBA odds for futures, and potential in-season wagers.
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NBA Betting Picks: 2020-21 Win Total Odds + Best Bets
NBA Pick: Atlanta Hawks UNDER 37.5 Wins (-125) — *68 games for action
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Hawks, who certainly added some legitimate depth. Danilo Gallinari signed a massive deal. After we thought he was headed to Milwaukee, Bogdan Bogdanovic eventually made his way to Atlanta. Rajon Rondo was brought on for veteran mentorship, and let’s also not forget that Clint Capela never actually played for Atlanta last season. Those are four capable players all added to the roster to help support young star Trae Young and the youthful core.
But is there enough here to help this team finish 38-34? I can’t say that there is. The Hawks finished last season as the No. 14 seed in the Eastern Conference last season with a record of 20-47. This team will obviously be improved, but I can’t see going better than .500. The East has strong competition this season too — Milwaukee, Miami, Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia and Brooklyn are all clearly superior teams.
The final two playoff spots in the East will come down to Indiana, Orlando, Washington and likely these Hawks. Maybe Atlanta will make the jump to the postseason, but the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the East last year were both well under, with Orlando getting the last spot at 33-40.
I also like having the 68-game qualifier here since it’s an under. If you’re playing overs, you’ll want to get as high of a qualifier as possible. But you want to create as large an edge as possible. The total of 38 wins for the Hawks is out of the question for me. This is my largest NBA future.
NBA Pick: Detroit Pistons UNDER 23.5 wins (-110) — *68 games for action
Remember that span of about 10 hours in free agency when the Pistons lost Christian Wood to Houston in free agency and replaced him with about five random bigs? That’s not a formula for success in the NBA. Detroit finished 20-46 last season when the league shut down, which translates to 21.8 wins in a 72-game season. But this roster got worse.
As mentioned, Wood is out, and he’s replaced by the likes of Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee and Jahlil Okafor. That won’t work out favorably. First-round rookies Killian Hayes and Isaiah Stewart have upside, but they are projects that aren’t ready to contribute winning games. That leaves this team with leadership from Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin. They are both great guys, but this isn’t 2011 — it’d be a miracle if either stayed healthy for a season.
I just don’t see how this team improves at all from last season, and it probably goes slightly in the other direction with the East improving. Like the Hawks, betting on a book with a 68-game qualifier helps on the under, just in case. But this team is likely building to land another top-10 selection in the 2021 draft. Stay away from the over for this NBA betting pick.
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