I’m not huge on many sides for Week 15, but NFL prop bets have been going well lately, and I think this week presents more strong spots to capitalize on. Let’s get into some of my favorite NFL betting picks for the week, and really hone in on some of the Week 15 NFL best bets we can make.
Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL picks.
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NFL Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions | Week 15 NFL Best Bets
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards: OVER 61.5 (-134, DraftKings)
Jones has exceeded this number in three straight games, averaging 96.3 yards on the ground during that span. While Carolina has shown improvement defending the run this season, it’s still an eight-point road dog here against a high-powered offense. The number is lower than I expected, most likely because Jones has been bottled up for some really poor games. While I do think Aaron Rodgers and the passing game will have plenty of success, the run won’t be abandoned in this matchup. Even if Jones has a tough game and doesn’t get there, we still should have a chance to get out of it late. Jones was limited against Philly, but broke off a 77-yarder late. The Packers should win this game, and will be grinding clock late.
Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards: OVER 73.5 (-125, PointsBet)
The Colts seem like they’ve finally turned to Taylor as the featured back, feeding him for over 22 touches per game in his last three. Two of those games he handled 20 or more carries, and he’s rushed for at least 90 yards in all three games. Taylor’s coming off a 150-yard game last week against the Raiders, and this matchup is even better. It took Taylor just 13 carries to get to 91 yards against the Texans a couple of weeks ago, and now gets another crack at them. Houston ranks 31st in rush defense, allowing 152.3 yards per game. I bet David Montgomery in this exact spot last week at 67.5 yards and hit it on his first carry on the game — and 80-yarder. This is a near perfect spot.
Alvin Kamara Receptions: OVER 6.5 (+100, BetMGM)
I got my hands on this one when it opened on Friday, missing O5.5 at +120, but locking it at +108 on DraftKings. It almost immediately flew to -118 before going off the board. There are some moving parts here, but Ben Rasa and I have discussed this spot being circled on the Friday betting show for a couple of weeks now.
Kamara was averaging 7.4 receptions per game in nine games with Drew Brees, then Taysom Hill took over. While Kamara was targeted 10 times, catching seven last week, I wish that’d never happened. Prior to that, Kamara had just three receptions in three games, which depresses his receiving props a bit. Not only is Brees back now, but Michael Thomas has been ruled out. Brees likely targets Kamara 10-plus times in the passing game, and seven receptions isn’t much to ask for.
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