Rather than pick a side on Monday Night Football, I stuck to the prop market, which I feel has more value towards the end of the season. While I lean to the Raiders to take care of a Chargers team that just got its first cover since October, I’m turning to a player prop for my NFL best bet for value in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. Let’s get into some Week 15 NFL betting picks.
Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL picks.
[CARUSO]
[SportsbookAffiliates]
NFL Best Bets: Week 15 Thursday Night Football Betting
Austin Ekeler Yards Receiving: OVER 44.5 (-112)
On Monday I had two props I loved for Mark Andrews, and while the yards got there pretty easily, the touchdown prop didn’t hit — he almost broke his first reception to the house and would’ve won us both bets on one play. For that reason, I’m keeping things simple on Thursday. While I love Ekeler to hit the over on 5.5 receptions, I’m just going to the yards. Ekeler has been targeted 34 times in three games since returning, including no fewer than nine in a game. He has 11, four and nine receptions in those three games. The receptions prop is a very strong play.
Ekeler has also is averaging 61.3 yards receiving in his three games back, posting totals of 85 against Buffalo, 32 in a blowout loss to New England (in which he sat late) and 67 against Atlanta. The running back has the team’s largest target share in the last three games, which includes Keenan Allen.
The Chargers will be without Mike Williams on Thursday, and while he only takes up just a little over 13% of the targets, that’s still some production through the air that needs to go somewhere. Then there’s Allen, who is battling a hamstring injury and could miss this game. Even if he doesn’t, the Chargers expect Allen to be limited, opening up a ton more opportunities for Ekeler.
The Raiders are already banged up on defense, but they haven’t been good against the running back position all season. Las Vegas ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in both receiving yards and receptions allowed per game to running backs in 2020.
So, I’m passing on the game and I’m passing on the total. I’m putting all that money towards the significantly stronger play in my eyes — I locked it at 42.5 on Thursday morning. If you care about the number, PointsBet has over 41.5 yards available but laying -167 in juice. I think this play is good up over 50 yards, so I’ll lay the standard juice on 44.5.
[NFL-Content-Links]
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Need more NFL best bets? Check out the Awesemo betting home page.
