Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL plays.
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NFL Betting Picks & Predictions | Top Prop Bets
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Derrick Henry Yards Rushing OVER 124.5 (-115, William Hill))
I’ve had this one circled all week, and it’s finally time to pounce. DraftKings opened this one at 118.5, and it expectedly got bet up. I still think this is a safe play, with a massive ceiling for Henry going into this game. He’s rushed for over 200 yards each of the last two times he’s faced this Houston defense, which ranks 31st in the NFL, allowing 151.7 per game.
Earlier this season, Henry dominated this defense, plowing his way to 212 yards and two touchdowns line. But I care more about last season, when the Titans were in a very similar situation. They needed the win to clinch the postseason, as they do this season to win the division. Henry was about 200 yards from the rushing title in last year’s matchup, and Tennessee made sure to get him there, running him 32 times for 211 yards and three trips to the end zone.
This year, Henry finds himself 223 yards from 2,000, which I think is on the team’s mind. I think Henry sure naturally find his way to the over within the flow of this game. But the extra incentive to go big also helps.
With a lot of books approaching 130 yards and juiced to -140 of higher, William Hill offers a great number and price.
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