Once again the team bets do not offer much value today except for one spot discussed below, but there are a ton of great prop bets. Below I have examined the MLB team and player Vegas odds and outlined four free expert MLB picks in Awesemo’s MLB betting guide.
Expert MLB Picks, Props Predictions & Vegas Odds
Pirates vs. Reds: Pittsburgh Moneyline (+165, William Hill)
This is another spot where the betting line does not match the probabilities of the proprietary model Awesemo uses. This makes a lot of sense as well, as the pitching matchup and lineups are much closer than the public perception. Wade Miley limits hard contact but strikes out only 18% of batters and survives by the grace of his fielders. J.T. Brubaker arguably is the more talented pitcher; he strikes out 24% of batters and enjoys excellent control with only 5.8% walks allowed this year. However, he has been extremely bad with allowing home runs this year, and that has limited his effectiveness as a starting pitcher. The Pirates are a patient team with five batters in their projected lineup walking more than 10% of the time. The Pirates do not possess much power, but they are a pesky team that makes the opposing pitchers work. The opposite is true for the Reds, as they try to hit the ball as far as possible every at bat. This is a matchup that Awesemo’s model projects the Pirates to win about 40% of the time, and that makes this a profitable long-term spot to bet.
Kyle Muller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-148, FanDuel)
Kyle Muller has had a great start to his season as far as swinging strikes go. Tonight he matches up with the Nationals that have lost their best hitters at the trade deadline, but the hitters that remain, though not possessing much power, do not swing and miss often. The projected lineup only has one batter with a strikeout rate over 20%. Muller has struck out 27% of batters but has also walked 12.3% and allows 42.5% hard hits. Six and a half strikeouts is a lofty total for most pitchers since the sticky substance ban, and that makes even a -148 bet very profitable.
Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)
Corbin Burnes has arguably been the best strikeout artist in the league this year. Tonight he faces an equally impressive Giants team that has become the favorite to win the toughest division in Major League Baseball. Burnes sports a 36% strikeout rate and only walks 5% of batters, letting him go deep into almost every start. While the Giants have a lineup that has surprised at every position, they also carry over 20% strikeout rates at every spot except catcher. Burnes is a great bet to keep his strikeout process going tonight, even against a very tough team.
Didi Gregorius to Hit a Home Run (+650, William Hill)
A +650 home run bet only has to hit a few times to be very profitable. Didi Gregorius has had a tough time this season, going on the injured list and generally sporting reduced power numbers across the board. However, he is swinging the bat much better in the summer. He has a 17.7-degree launch angle that is perfect for hitting home runs and is only striking out 18% of the time this season, which means he is putting the ball in the air almost every at-bat. He has a looping swing that can even get the ball in the air against groundball pitchers like Marcus Stroman. Stroman is giving up 42% hard hits and an xSLG of .423 this year, and he rarely walks anyone. All of the above adds up to Gregorius hitting the ball hard enough to get it out to win a longshot bet.
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