With UFC returning to action this weekend, UFC 265 features Derrick Lewis taking on Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title. This weekly Fight Analysis article will analyze every matchup on the card. Below you will find data-driven analysis for each matchup and a pick to win. This, along with Awesemo’s MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool, and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane MMA DFS Picks
Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane
Headlining UFC 265, Derrick Lewis gets another shot at the title against Ciryl Gane. Previously fighting for the title in 2018, Lewis lost via submission to Daniel Cormier. Since then he is 4-1 with a four-fight winning streak. He most recently knocked out Curtis Blaydes in February. Lewis is 25-7-1 in his career.
On the other side, Gane enters this fight with a 9-0 record. He is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC, most recently defeating Alexander Volkov via decision. Interestingly, Gane comes in as the -365 favorite. Both fighters are primarily strikers. Lewis has a background in boxing lands 2.59 significant strikes landed, compared to 2.16 absorbed. While Lewis may not be the most aggressive striker, his power is elite. Lewis has the record for most knockouts in UFC heavyweight history. Lewis also has serviceable cardio for a heavyweight, giving him stopping power late into fights.
Similarly, Gane is a former kickboxing fighter who lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.60. Gane does have the edge in striking defense at 63% compared to 44% for Lewis. While Gane may not have the same power as Lewis, he has a more well-rounded game overall. Gane has three of his nine wins coming via submission and he lands 0.82 takedowns per bout. Lewis has 54% takedown defense, but he successfully defended three takedowns against Blaydes in his most recent fight. Lewis has allowed at least one takedown in each of his three previous fights. However, Lewis is a good scrambler and rarely allows opponents to control him on the mat. Lewis lands 0.52 takedowns himself, but Gane has 100% takedown defense. Gane needs to be careful of Lewis’ knockout power when shooting takedowns, but he should have an advantage on the mat.
As mentioned above, the finish potential in this fight is high. Lewis has clear knockout power, which clashes with Gane’s sound defense. Gane has knockout power himself and can submit opponents. For DFS purposes, Gane is the most expensive fighter at $9,400 for a reason. He is a -365 favorite with a -110 prop in the distance. He is also an aggressive striker in a five-round title fight. Conversely, Lewis has legitimate knockout power as an underdog and makes sense in more contrarian builds. This fight is one to include in every roster, but Gane is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Ciryl Gane ($9,400)
Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz
A fight taking place in the men’s bantamweight division, former featherweight titleholder Jose Aldo faces Pedro Munhoz as a -115 favorite. Aldo is now 29-7 in his career. Since 2019, Aldo is 2-3 in the UFC. Last year, he lost a title bout to Petr Yan before defeating Marlon Vera at the end of the year.
On the other side, Munhoz is 19-5-1 in his career and 1-2 in his most recent fights. After dropping bouts to Aljamain Sterling and Frankie Edgar, Munhoz bounced back with a win over Jimmie Rivera this February.
One of the most well-rounded fighters in the sport, Aldo lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute, compared to 3.52 absorbed. Aldo still has 61% striking defense, despite his negative striking ratio. Most of Aldo’s negative striking ratio came against Yan when he lost the striking battle 194-83. Munhoz also has a negative striking ratio in the UFC. A far more aggressive fighter, Munhoz lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute, compared to 5.87 absorbed. Munhoz lost the striking battle 174-105 against Sterling but otherwise held a striking advantage in his five most recent fights. Aldo has a five-inch reach advantage, which could come into play here.
On the mat, Aldo is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He has solid wrestling and lands 0.57 takedowns on average. However, he seldom attacks submissions, with just one submission win on his profile. Similarly, Munhoz is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He lands 0.68 takedowns on average and hunts submissions far more often. Aldo has excellent defensive grappling with 91% takedown defense, compared to 80% for Munhoz.
This fight looks likely to spend most of the time standing up. As for finish potential, Aldo has 17 knockouts in 29 professional wins. Likewise, Munhoz has 13 finishes in 19 wins with eight coming via submission. Bookmakers currently peg this fight at -200 to reach a decision. For DFS purposes, the line continues to move against Aldo. At $8,600 and -115 to win the bout, he is slightly overpriced. Conversely, Munhoz enters this bout as the more aggressive fighter and better price tag at $7,600. Even without the clear stopping power, this is a fairly strong fight to target for DFS. Aldo will be the official pick, but splitting ownership in this bout looks like a good idea.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Jose Aldo ($8,600)
Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque
Moving to the men’s welterweight division, Michael Chiesa faces Vicente Luque as a -105 underdog. Chiesa enters this fight at age 33 with an 18-4 professional record. He is currently on a four-fight winning streak. Most recently, he defeated Rafael dos Anjos and Neil Magny.
Similarly, Luque enters this fight at age 29, with a 20-7-1 professional record. Luque is on a three-fight winning streak himself. He most recently defeated Randy Brown and Tyron Woodley.
In a distinct clash of styles, Chiesa is a non-aggressive striker, landing 1.89 significant strikes per minute. While he only absorbs 1.71 strikes, his 54% striking defense could leave openings for ace striker Luque. Luque has a background in karate and Muay Thai, landing 5.74 significant strikes per minute. One of the more aggressive, pressuring fighters in the division, Luque absorbs 5.78 significant strikes per minute. This gives him a slightly negative striking ratio. Even with the negative ratio, Luque is the more advanced striker at this point in his career. Luque implements diverse kicks and striking combinations, with excellent durability.
On the mat, Chiesa is hyper-aggressive with his wrestling. Training out of Team Alpha Male, Chiesa lands 3.60 takedowns on average with 52% accuracy. Interestingly, he is only a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, despite his 11 wins via submission. Luque actually has the higher rank in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with his brown belt. Luque lands 0.66 takedowns on average with 50% accuracy himself. Luque’s takedown defense comes in at 65%, compared to 68% for Chiesa. Luque is not an aggressive wrestler and has not landed a takedown in any of his last 10 fights. However, he has also allowed just three takedowns total in that span. None of the fighters landing takedowns were able to control Luque for more than two minutes, highlighting Luque’s strong scrambling ability.
As for finishing ability, 15 of Chiesa’s 22 fights featured a finish. Likewise, 20 of Luque’s 28 fights ended with an early stoppage. Right now, bookmakers peg this fight at -125 to reach a decision. For DFS, this is another strong fight to target. Luque is appropriately priced at $8,500 for his -115 chance of winning this fight. Both fighters bring elite volume and stopping power. In the same vein, Chiesa is one of the better underdogs to target at $7,700. While Luque comes in as the official pick, this is a can’t-miss fight for DFS lineups altogether.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Vicente Luque ($8,500)
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
A rematch taking place in the women’s strawweight division, Tecia Torres faces Angela Hill as a -135 favorite. Previously fighting in 2015, Torres won the first bout by unanimous decision. This time, Torres enters the octagon at age 31 with a 12-5 professional record. After dropping four fights in a row to some of the division’s top competition, Torres finds herself on a two-fight winning streak. Her latest wins came against Brianna Van Buren and Sam Hughes.
On the other side, Hill enters this bout at age 36 with a 13-9 record. Hill is 3-2 since the start of 2020. Most recently, she lost to Michelle Waterson via split decision, before defeating Ashley Yoder earlier this year.
Both fighters are primarily known as strikers. Torres is a black belt in karate and taekwondo. She lands 4.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.37. Similarly, Hill has an extensive background in kickboxing. The more aggressive fighters, Hill lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.98. Both Torres and Hill have a solid striking defense at 62% and 64% respectively. Hill has a two-inch height and four-inch reach advantage over Torres, but that did not influence their previous fight.
Neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the mat, but Torres will shoot takedowns more often. She lands 0.68 takedowns on average with 15% accuracy. Hill has 76% takedown defense but allowed at least one takedown in each of her last four fights. Torres also took Hill down twice in their first bout. Far less aggressive on the mat, Hill averages 0.45 takedowns per bout with 36% accuracy. Torres has 56% takedown defense and allowed multiple takedowns in three of her last six fights. While Hill does not implement takedowns often, this poor defense could give Hill an avenue to solidify rounds.
Overall, bookmakers peg this fight at -450 to reach a decision. Only two of Torres’ 17 pro fights ended early. Similarly, seven of Hill’s 22 professional fights ended with an early stoppage. For DFS, this is a middling fight to target. Torres is expensive at $8,700 when compared with her -135 odds. Hill is a slightly better value at $7,500, but spending slightly more gets Munhoz or Chiesa into lineups. Viable for large-field tournaments, this may be a fight to ignore in smaller contests. Torres is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Tecia Torres ($8,700)
Song Yadong vs. Casey Kenney
Kicking off the main card, Song Yadong faces Casey Kenney in the men’s bantamweight division as a +100 underdog. Kenney enters this fight at age 30 with a 16-3-1 professional record. He is 3-2 since the start of 2020, with his only losses coming to Dominick Cruz and Merab Dvalishvili.
On the other side, Yadong will look to rebound after losing to Kyler Phillips earlier this year. Professionally, Yadong has a 16-5-1-1 professional record. Yadong is primarily known for his striking and boxing. He lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.64.
On the feet, Kenney is not as developed as Yadong, but he has shown solid volume in his previous UFC fights. Kenney lands 4.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.30. He has landed over 100 significant strikes in two of his last three bouts. Kenney’s best weapon could be his kicks, which he has used multiple times in the past.
When he is not striking, Kenney is also aggressive on the mat. An accomplished wrestler, Kenney also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He lands 1.10 takedowns on average with 39% accuracy. Yadong only defends takedowns at 56%, allowing 10 combined takedowns in his last three fights. Yadong lands 0.59 takedowns on average himself, but Kenny has a clear advantage on the mat.
As for finish potential, bookmakers peg this fight at -200 to reach a decision. Yadong has nine of his 16 wins finishing early. Similarly, Kenney has seven of his 16 wins finishing early. While this fight is not the most likely to feature a stoppage, the overall pace projects to be high. For DFS, the near-even odds point to Yadong as the better value at $8,000. However, Kenney is the more aggressive fighter overall, keeping him squarely in play at $8,200.
Like most of the fights mentioned above, this bout should be a priority in DFS lineups either way. Past fighters have exploited Yadong’s weaknesses on the mat before and that should be Kenney’s approach here. With that said, Kenney is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Casey Kenney ($8,200)
Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev
Headlining the prelims, Bobby Green faces Rafael Fiziev in the men’s lightweight division. A -280 favorite, Fiziev enters this fight with a 9-1 professional record. He is 3-1 in the UFC with three straight wins. His most recent victories came over Marc Diakiese and Renato Moicano.
On the other side, Green is 27-11-1 in his career. Green is 3-1 in his most recent fights, with a loss to Thiago Moises in his latest bout.
On the feet, both fighters implement a solid pace. Green lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.32. Similarly, Fiziev has a background in Muay Thai, landing 4.67 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.17. Even with Green’s volume, Fiziev is a tricky opponent. Fiziev is one of the fastest strikers in all of MMA. Green has struggled with kicks at times in his career, which does not bode well against the kick-heavy game of Fiziev.
On the mat, Green is an accomplished wrestler. He lands 1.56 takedowns on average with 41% accuracy. Unfortunately, Fiziev has 100% takedown defense on 16 attempts. Fiziev averages 0.84 takedowns himself, but he only has two at the UFC level. Experience favors Green on the mat, but Fiziev has yet to show any cracks in his defense.
As for finish potential, Green has 17 finishes in 27 overall wins. However, each of his last nine fights ended in a decision. On the other side, only two of Fiziev’s 10 fights reached a decision, but both came in his time with the UFC. Bookmakers peg this fight at -150 to reach a decision. For DFS, Fiziev’s $9,300 price tag makes sense as a -280 favorite. This fight overall projects for elite pace. However, with people favoring the title bout, this fight may come in with lower ownership.
Looking at Green as an underdog, his $6,900 price tag could break the slate with a win. One of the more aggressive strikers on the card, Green’s pressure should help this fight deliver either way. The more accomplished striker, Fiziev gets the job done here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Rafael Fiziev ($9,300)
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Taking place in the men’s bantamweight division, Vince Morales takes on Drako Rodriguez as a -105 underdog. Morales enters this bout at age 30 with a 9-5 professional record. Fighting for his job, Morales is 1-4 in the UFC, dropping his two most recent fights against Benito Lopez and Chris Gutierrez. Morales also tore his Achilles after the Gutierrez fight.
On the other side, Rodriguez enters this fight at age 25 with a 7-2 professional record. After a win over Mana Martinez on Dana White’s Contender Series, Rodriguez dropped his UFC debut against Aiemann Zahabi. Zahabi happens to be Morales’ only win inside the UFC.
Cousin of Ricky Simon, Morales is an aggressive striker. He lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute, compared to 4.16 absorbed. Rodriguez comes from a boxing background and lands 2.57 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs exactly as many strikes as he inflicts, with a horrific 26% striking defense. However, this comes from a minuscule sample size. Rodriguez has shown far more volume than these numbers indicate on the regional scene. Rodriguez’s game plan should also focus on a kick heavy approach. Morales did not even attempt to check the kicks of Gutierrez in his most recent fight, leading to his TKO loss. With Morales also losing development time to injury, Rodriguez should have striking advantages.
On the mat, Morales has a background in wrestling and has trained extensively with Simon. However, he has never attempted a takedown at the UFC level. He only has 55% takedown defense, pointing to potential lapses in his game. Conversely, Rodriguez barely has a sample inside the UFC. In two fights, he barely has over five minutes of cage time. In that span, he landed one takedown but has not defended any himself.
As for finish potential, this fight is -125 to reach a decision. Only one of Rodriguez’s nine career fights has reached a decision. Similarly, four of Morales’ 14 fights reached a decision. For DFS purposes, this fight brings solid pace and a good chance for a finish. At $8,400, Rodriguez is overpriced with his -115 odds. For the same reason, Morales is underpriced at $7,800.
Rodriguez looks to have multiple advantages over Morales, making these odds curious. Perhaps he goes under-owned with the line moving against him here. Either way, volume and finish potential make this a solid fight to target for DFS. Rodriguez is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Drako Rodriguez ($8,400)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman
A fight taking place in the men’s light heavyweight division, Alonzo Menifield faces Ed Herman as a -250 favorite. Menifield enters this fight at age 33 with a 10-2 professional record. After a promising start to his career, Menifield is 1-2 in his three most recent fights. He dropped back-to-back bouts against Devin Clark and Ovince Saint Preux, before defeating Fabio Cherant earlier this year.
On the other side, Herman is on a three-fight winning streak. Only fighting one time in 2020, Herman submitted Mike Rodriguez.
A former professional player in the Canadian Football League, Menifield transitioned to mixed martial arts later in life. He has a background in Muay Thai and lands 3.31 significant strikes per minute. However, Menifield also has a 46% striking defense, leading to a slightly negative striking ratio. Either way, Menifield’s knockout power must be feared. He has eight of his 10 wins coming via knockout, with a 100% finish rate.
On the other side, Herman is known primarily for his ground game. He also has a negative striking ratio, highlighted by his 43% striking defense. Just as aggressive as Menifield, Herman lands 3.32 significant strikes per minute. However, Menifield still has the striking and power advantage on the feet. Noted above, Herman is the more experienced grappler in this fight. A former wrestler at the college level, Herman also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He lands 2.21 takedowns on average with 48% accuracy. Menifield is not as experienced as a grappler, but his 85% takedown defense generally holds up. He has only been taken down one time in his last six fights. Menifield only lands 0.39 takedowns himself, but Herman’s 60% takedown defense opens the door to potential takedown attempts. However, Herman’s jiu-jitsu has led to 14 submissions. Menifield should be weary of Herman on the mat.
Overall, this fight has plenty of finish potential at +215 to reach a decision. Herman has 10 decisions in 41 professional fights. Likewise, Menifield only has one decision in his 12 professional fights. For DFS, Menifield looks a little expensive at $9,200. He is only favored by -250, which comes in below the less expensive Johnny Munoz. However, Menifield has the most finishing power on the card as a -150 favorite to win inside the distance. On the other side, Herman is a decent target at $7,000 as a +200 underdog.
The problem is the fight’s overall pace. Without a finish or a Herman upset, this fight looks unlikely to score well. Still, this fight is +215 to finish early, keeping it in play. Menifield is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Alonzo Menifield ($9,200)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne
Kicking off the prelims, Karolina Kowalkiewicz faces Jessica Penne as a -135 favorite in the women’s strawweight division. Kowalkiewicz enters this fight with a 12-6 professional record. However, she has lost each of her last four matches. Now taking more than a year off, Kowalkiewicz will attempt to avenge her most recent defeat at the hands of Yan Xiaonan.
Similarly, Penne enters this fight with a 13-5 professional record. After a three-fight losing streak, Penne defeated Loopy Godinez earlier this year via split decision.
Kowalkiewicz is known primarily as a Muay Thai striker. She lands 5.27 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.65. Her pressuring style has contributed to her slightly negative striking ratio, but this damage has accumulated over time. Penne is far less aggressive as a striker, landing 2.40 significant strikes per minute. She also has a more severe negative striking ratio, absorbing 4.45 significant strikes per minute. However, the former atomweight still has a two-inch height advantage and three-inch reach advantage over Kowalkiewicz.
On the mat, Penne is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with extensive judo training as well. She lands 1.50 takedowns on average, but only defends them at 42%. Fortunately, Kowalkiewicz is not known for her ground game. She lands just 0.10 takedowns on average with 12% accuracy. While Kowalkiewicz lacks takedown ability herself, she does defend them at 75%. Interestingly, that defense appears to have cracked in recent fights. She has been taken down multiple times in two of her last three fights.
Overall, this fight offers little finish potential at -360 to reach a decision. For DFS purposes, this fight has a lower chance of reaching a decision than the Hill/Torres bout. However, this fight has a superior pace on the feet and on the mat. As a -135 favorite, Kowalkiewicz is a significantly better value at $8,300 than Torres at $8,700. Conversely, Penne looks slightly overpriced at $7,900 with Hill available at $7,500. The official pick is Kowalkiewicz, but this fight is best left for tournaments.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($8,300)
Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne
The featured early prelim of the night, Manel Kape faces Ode Osbourne as a -195 favorite in the men’s flyweight division. Kape enters this fight with a 15-6 professional record. Entering the UFC as a highly-touted prospect, Kape is 0-2 in the promotion after losing to Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau earlier this year.
Osbourne is 9-3-1 and 2-1 in the UFC, most recently defeating Jerome Rivera earlier this year. Interestingly, this will be Osbourne’s first fight in the UFC at flyweight after previously competing at bantamweight and even featherweight against Rivera.
Kape is primarily a boxer. He lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.30. This negative striking ratio comes entirely from his bout against Pantoja when he lost the striking battle 74-49. Pantoja is the third-ranked flyweight in the world, making an incredibly difficult debut fight for Kape. On the other side, Osbourne lands 4.30 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.04. Even though he has a positive striking differential, his 42% striking defense falls below Kape’s 48%. Osbourne is also one of the larger fighters in the division. He will have a two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Kape.
On the mat, Osbourne has a background in wrestling. He has just one takedown at the UFC level, which came against Armando Villarreal in his debut. Osbourne has been taken down twice himself, which could happen again here. Kape also has a wrestling background. He has two takedowns at the UFC level against Pantoja, but he missed on five other attempts in that fight. In his most recent bout, he was taken down twice, putting his takedown defense at 80%.
Overall, this fight has decent finish potential for the flyweight division at -120 to reach a decision. Kape’s two UFC fights both ended in decisions, but he has 14 wins by stoppage. Similarly, only two of Osbourne’s 13 fights reached a decision. For DFS purposes, this also looks like an intriguing fight with solid pace. Kape comes in slightly overpriced at $9,000 as a -195 favorite. Conversely, Osbourne comes in as one of the top underdogs at $7,200 and +165 to win. Both fighters should score well with a win, making this a solid target for DFS. Kape gets his career back on track as the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Manel Kape ($9,000)
Pinpoint The Top Fighters for UFC DFS Awesemo’s UFC DFS Top Fighter Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel synthesizes our MMA DFS Projections and Ownership Projections to help you build competitive UFC DFS tournament lineups. The Top Fighters Tool is designed to help you simplify this information to compare a player’s ownership with their chances of being a top-scoring fighter on that slate.Miles Johns vs. Anderson dos Santos
Another fight taking place in the men’s bantamweight division, Miles Johns faces Anderson dos Santos as a -210 favorite. Johns enters this fight with a 3-1 record in the UFC. After dropping a bout to Mario Bautista in early 2020, Johns rebounded with a win over short-notice replacement Kevin Natividad.
On the other side, dos Santos is 1-2 in the UFC with losses to Nad Narimani and Andre Ewell. However, he knocked off Martin Day via submission in his most recent fight.
Neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the feet. Johns lands 3.33 significant strikes per minute to dos Santos’ 2.66. Johns appears to have an edge here with dos Santos negative striking ratio. Dos Santos absorbs 4.80 strikes per minute overall. Instead of striking, both fighters prefer to bring fights to the mat. Johns has a background in wrestling and lands 1.21 takedowns on average. Dos Santos is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and averages 1.30 takedowns himself. This creates an interesting matchup on the ground. Dos Santos has just 66% takedown defense but welcomes ground fighting to some degree. Johns’ takedown defense comes in at 87%, but he has not implemented many submissions to his game. Dos Santos averages 0.9 per bout, but Johns has yet to attempt a single submission at the UFC level. Dos Santos also has 12 of his 21 professional wins coming via submission. Johns has never been submitted, but his strength of schedule raises questions here. Dos Santos has the superior strength of schedule but is eight years older than Johns.
For DFS, this fight features a solid pace, despite the low likelihood for a finish. Johns comes in appropriately priced at $8,900, but his work rate falls below dos Santos. This makes dos Santos an attractive underdog at $7,300. A close fight overall, dos Santos is the official pick in this bout.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Anderson dos Santos ($7,300)
Victoria Leonardo vs. Melissa Gatto
A fight taking place in the women’s flyweight division, Victoria Leonardo faces Melissa Gatto as a -120 favorite. Now 8-3 in her career, Leonardo is 1-1 in the UFC. She punched her ticket to the promotion with a win over Chelsea Hackett on the Contender Series. She subsequently dropped her debut against Manon Fiorot by knockout.
On the other side, Gatto makes her debut after going 6-0-2 to this point in her career. Her most recent fight ended with a submission win over Karol Rosa. This fight came in 2018. Since then she has had four cancellations, three of which were slated to happen in the UFC.
On the feet, Leonardo has a negative striking differential, featuring 3.40 significant strikes inflicted to 4.15 strikes absorbed. On the other side, Gatto makes her UFC debut here. She is mainly known for her prowess on the mat, making her a somewhat unknown striker. Out of six professional wins, four came via submission with the other two coming as decisions. She is known primarily for her jiu-jitsu, which should be feared by Leonardo.
On the mat, Leonardo is accomplished herself. She averages 2.39 takedowns per bout with 37% accuracy. She landed three takedowns on the Contender Series, before allowing a takedown to Fiorot in her actual debut. Leonardo’s ground game comes primarily from wrestling. She has never attempted a submission in the UFC.
As far as female fights go, this one brings elevated finish potential. Only three of Leonardo’s 11 fights ended in a decision, while two of Gatto’s eight reached the judges. Overall this fight is +110 to reach a decision. For DFS, this fight is intriguing for the finish potential. Gatto is the most overpriced fighter on the entire slate at $8,800. Similarly, Leonardo projects to absorb elevated ownership as a $7,400 fighter with -120 odds. Gatto is the official pick, but Leonardo is the superior play in DFS.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Melissa Gatto ($8,800)
Johnny Munoz vs. Jamey Simmons
Kicking off UFC 265, Johnny Munoz faces Jamey Simmons in the men’s bantamweight division. A -275 favorite, Munoz enters this fight at age 28 with a 10-1 record. His only loss came in his lone UFC fight at the hands of Nate Maness.
Simmons dropped his UFC debut on short notice against Giga Chikadze. Simmons is 7-3 overall in his professional career. In his UFC debut, Munoz actually won the striking battle 49-21 against Maness. Interestingly, he also landed two takedowns to Maness’ one, while logging over nine minutes of control time. Ultimately, repeated groin strikes cost him the fight. Munoz is a diverse striker overall and will implement many kicks into his game.
On the mat, Munoz has a background in jiu-jitsu and attempted one submission in his UFC debut. He has six of his 10 wins coming via submission and two coming via knockout. On the other side, Simmons made an incredibly difficult debut against Chikadze, getting knocked out in the first round. Simmons wrestled in college and brings unorthodox striking tendencies. Simmons has four of his seven wins came via knockout. However, he has also been knocked out twice himself. Simmons’ third loss came via submission.
Bookmakers currently peg this fight at +125 to reach a decision. Neither fighter has good competition, making this a low-level fight. Munoz is a solid target at $9,100 based on his odds to win the fight. However, the small sample sizes make this fight more volatile than the odds indicate. Like Munoz, Simmons looks fairly priced at $7,100 and likely comes in with reduced ownership here. Munoz is the official pick, but this fight could go either way.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel: Johnny Munoz ($9,100)
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