Today features 10 evening MLB games from which to make bets. Below I have pinpointed three of the best MLB picks and a few other MLB betting tips for Monday, Aug. 16.
Expert MLB Picks, Props Predictions & Vegas Odds
Upset Special: Mets over Giants (+190, PointsBet)
The Mets are huge underdogs in San Francisco tonight, and Awesemo’s expert MLB prop betting model projects that the books have this one projected to be a little too lopsided. The Mets have a 40% chance of taking this one down, and +190 only applies about a 34.5% chance of winning. Thus this is a +EV proposition if in the long run. The Mets are playing much better now that they are finally healthy. Rich Hill, a trade deadline acquisition, is giving serviceable innings to his new team and only gives up 36% hard hits this season. He faces Kevin Gausman, who has had a simply fantastic year but has been hit or miss lately while giving up more barrels and more hard hits.
Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105, BetMGM)
The Angels offense has struggled since Mike Trout went down to injury, and Shohei Ohtani simply cannot carry the load for the whole team. Gerrit Cole has a ridiculous 35% strikeout rate and 32% swings and misses this season, and the Angels’ projected lineup has strikeouts all over. Most books have this same bet for 8.5 strikeouts, but Awesemo’s OddsShopper service points to a book lagging behind, with even-money odds on 7.5 strikeouts. Once again, the Awesemo MLB betting tool has this as one of the best +EV bets on the slate.
Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+400, SugarHouse)
Tonight Eugenio Suarez is facing a left-handed pitcher in Justin Steele. Suarez has had a down year with a 30% strikeout rate, but facing a pitcher that has just made his debut in a park that is great for home runs is a great spot to show off his prodigious power. Sporting an 18-degree launch angle and an xSLG of .425, when Suarez makes contact the ball travels a great distance. He should be able to put the bat on the ball, and Awesemo’s model predicts a 26% chance of a home run for a team with a huge 5.7-run total tonight.
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