Best NBA Bets Today: Knicks vs. Heat Expert Picks, Predictions & Prop Bets

Everything’s coming up Heat. No team in the Eastern Conference is tougher to beat at home than Miami. That is what the Knicks and their .500 road record face tonight in South Beach. The Heat are also getting back Tyler Herro from the COVID list, although Kyle Lowry will miss his fifth straight game for personal reasons. Miami has still won seven of their last ten overall as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo pace the league’s fourth-best scoring defense. The Knicks have dropped four of five and have struggled to get to an even record on the road. Despite Julius Randle and RJ Barrett’s best efforts, New York is limping towards the All-Star break. Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel are questionable, which could further deplete the Knicks front court. All of the advantages point to the Heat cruising at home. That said, let’s check out some of the best NBA betting picks and player props for tonight’s game.

Make sure to keep checking OddsShopper, as the status for players can change by the minute. The site is 100% free to use and offers Awesemo’s projections, the best return and at which book to place the wager. It has everything you need for NBA betting today.

Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks | Knicks vs. Heat

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New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. EST
Venue: FTX Arena — Miami, Florida
Coverage: ESPN

Best Knicks vs. Heat NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping

The easiest place to find the best bets in the NBA is on the one-stop shop for value and where to place a wager. The best part is the tool is free and easy to use. Simply filter, sort the page and find the best return available across all books.

Heat -3 1st Half (-110, Caesars)

We can maximize the free tools at OddsShopper as we sort by first-half spread for the Heat. We are able to get under 3.5 at Caesars for one of the best home teams in the NBA all season. They have a track record of not letting up – at least for more than a quarter in the first half. The Knicks are also a mediocre team on the road, so while they may catch Miami sleeping in the first quarter, it will not last by the half. We want to take advantage of Herro returning, as well as extended rest for the Heat. There are two strong possible scenarios in the first half and both play out with the Heat on top at the midway point. First, Miami comes out firing, as they have an extra day’s rest over visiting New York. Even bench play will not help the Knicks cut the lead. The other option would be Miami comes out sleepwalking and is down in the first quarter. The Heat are deeper than the Knicks so they can go on multiple runs in the second quarter to easily be back in front.

Jimmy Butler Under 7.5 Assists (-110, BetMGM)

We can use OddsShopper and its free sorting tool by xWin or xROI, depending on which you prefer. We want to find the best plays on OddsShopper that balance the two and this play has it. Awesemo has Butler projected for 6.5 assists combined with an xWin of 69% and a 31% xROI. While there are more scoring options on the floor with Herro returning and Bam already back, that means defenses have it tougher to just key on Butler. The drop in dimes should reflect a nice uptick in scoring, as the free data we have would indicate. We have seen a lot of volatility in Butler’s assists, to the point when he is under it is by a large margin.

Julius Randle Over 4.5 Assists (-108, FanDuel)

This is a much more attainable number of assists for Randle to hit tonight in Miami. Awesemo’s free projection has Randle at 5.6 assists, and OddsShopper sees a 67% xWin chance of this hitting. We get a 30% xROI on the bet and are laying two cents less on FanDuel than other books, thanks to OddsShopper and its value tool. Randle finished with four assists in his last game but went over the number in six of his previous eight games. The Knicks need all the help they can get moving the ball and Randle has found a decent role in getting to 5 assists each night. The Knicks may be severely depleted up front, which could open up some passing lanes for Randle out of any double-team.

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Bam Adebayo Over 15.5 Points (-110, BetMGM)

We can ride with Adebayo here in a matchup where he should be facing backups for the majority of the night. His total will most likely rise a point or two by tip when any Knicks players get ruled out for the game. This is a great number at 15.5 because the Knicks will not be able to keep him away from the rim. You can push this at FanDuel and get Adebayo 20+ Points at +162 – certainly worth a unit against this Knicks team. OddsShopper has Bam projected for 16.9 points with Awesemo’s data and sees a 58% xWin chance of this bet hitting. We should expect more free throw attempts than last game, which should bump his point total north of 20 tonight.

Julius Randle 3+ 3’s (+235, FanDuel)

Normally our Long Distance Launch would target a guard on the Knicks like Evan Fournier or even a healthy Kemba Walker, but Randle is launching from deep. We have seen seven attempts in two straight games for Randle, which is enough volume to get to three makes. We are getting a return of +235 which reflects his recent makes way more than his volume. The key in playing these multiple 3-point props is asking if the player has enough volume to get the makes we need. In this case, yes, Randle taking seven threes should allow for a 3-7 or 3-8 type of night. RJ Barrett has lower odds on the same bet but is not taking anywhere near the number of threes needed to clear this number. The value is on Randle.

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