After exactly two months of play in the bubble, the Heat and Lakers tip off an unlikely NBA Finals matchup on Wednesday evening. Let’s break down both teams’ performances in the postseason along with a look at their head-to-head matchups this season to give us an idea which side of the NBA picks we want to favor.
Get All The Best Odds In One Place
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money your’e making over time. Check it out right HERE.
NBA Finals Series Price: Miami (+300 BetMGM), Los Angeles (-357 BetMGM)
Game 1 Price: Lakers -4.5 (all books), Heat Moneyline (+165 BetMGM)
Game 1 Total: 217.5 (all books)
How have the Heat performed in the postseason?
— The Heat are 12-3 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs.
— 4-0 ATS in a first-round sweep of Indiana.
— 4-1 ATS in a second-round win over Milwaukee.
— 4-2 ATS in an Eastern Conference Finals victory against Boston.
— Miami was just 3-6 to the over in the first two rounds of the postseason, but but the over went 5-1 in the six Eastern Conference Finals games. The over/under is 8-7 overall in Miami playoff games.
How have the Lakers performed in the postseason?
— The Lakers are 12-3 straight up, and 9-5-1 ATS in the playoffs.
— 3-2 ATS in a first-round win over Portland.
— 4-1 ATS in second-round win over Houston.
— 2-2-1 ATS in the Western Conference Finals against Denver.
— Los Angeles was just 3-7 to the over in the first two rounds of the postseason, but the over went 4-1 in five Western Conference Finals games. The over/under is 7-8 overall in Lakers playoff games.
Regular Season Matchups
Nov. 8: Miami (+8.5) at Los Angeles (218.5)
Final Score: Lakers 95, Heat 80
This one obviously stayed way under the total, with a weird 31-point fourth quarter. Miami was not nearly as highly thought of at this point in the season, but the Lakers still managed to easily cover. Both teams obviously shot terribly in this game, with the Lakers finishing at 44.9% from the field and the Heat just 35%. Miami was 6-for-35 (17.1%) from downtown, while the Lakers were slightly better at 8-for-32 (25%). Jimmy Butler led the way for Miami with 22 points, and Goran Dragic scored 19 in 34 minutes but was playing off the bench. Bam Adebayo had trouble getting going, posting 11 points, nine rebounds and four assists in 38 minutes, attempting just seven field goals and going 3-of-8 from the free throw line. Nobody for the Lakers played well outside of Anthony Davis and LeBron James, but it was enough to get an easy win. The duo shot 21-for-36, scoring 51 points, 12 rebounds and 13 assists. The starters made the difference in this one, with every Laker starter finishing at least plus-17 and every Heat starter minus-9 or worse.
Dec. 13: Los Angeles (-5.5) at Miami (212)
Final Score: Lakers 113, Heat 110
Once again, James and Davis did the heavy lifting, shooting a combined 22-for-42 with 61 points, 19 rebounds and 13 assists. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was the only other Laker to crack double digits. Butler led the way again with 23 points, and Adebayo finished with 12 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. Dragic did not play, though, which makes the effort from Miami impressive. Both teams shot much better, but Miami still was just 10-of-33 (30.3%) from downtown. The over cashed this time around, and the Heat covered as home dogs in a spread similar to what we see on the board for Game 1.
NBA Picks + Analysis
I want to give the Heat all the credit they deserve, but the Lakers are a much more difficult matchup than any team Miami saw in the East. Just look at how the Lakers were able to limit Adebayo in the two regular-season matchups, and while we don’t want to put too much weight on it, it’s telling of Los Angeles’ defensive potential.
Both matchups between these teams were pre-trade deadline, so crucial pieces were missing from both sides. But Miami definitely got the bigger boost from Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala along with massive development from Tyler Herro. That’s why we’re seeing the shortest number we’ve seen in a matchup between these two teams this season.
Miami shot a combined 16-for-68 (23.5%) from 3-point land in the two regular season matchups, which I think is crucial. If this elite Lakers’ defense can limit Miami from deep, which everyone else has struggled to do, it gives the Lakers a huge advantage.
It’s worth mentioning that Lebron is just 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread in Game 1s of the NBA Finals. It plays into the narrative of the Lakers struggle in Game 1s this postseason, but his teams have also been sizable underdogs in some of those contests. In 49 NBA Finals games, James’ teams have only been favored 17 times, with his team going 9-8 against the spread in those contests. We assume the Lakers will be favored in each game this series, leaving LeBron in a stronger spot than recent Finals’ appearances.
NBA Pick: Lakers in Six
Follow us on all of our social channels for more MLB betting picks and NBA betting picks! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content, where we talk DFS and betting.
Need more NBA picks and sports betting information? Check out the Awesemo betting home page.
