Clippers vs. Mavericks: NBA Betting Pick & Prediction Tonight

The Clippers and Mavericks will play the second game of their two-part series tonight, and Dallas will be looking for a measure of revenge after their 10-point loss on Monday. If you’re hunting out an edge on tonight’s NBA betting market, here are the key trends and my predictions for the matchup.

Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Clippers vs. Mavericks

Clippers vs. Mavericks Game Info

Los Angeles Clippers (26-15) at Dallas Mavericks (20-18)
Date: Wednesday, Mar. 17, 2021
Start Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center — Dallas

On Monday, the Mavericks failed to break 100 points despite a triple-double from Luka Doncic. They may have to play this game without center Dorian Finney-Smith, who is doubtful, which will make a bounce-back showing even more difficult for them.

In contrast, the Los Angeles Clippers could get center Serge Ibaka back for tonight’s battle. He missed the last game with a back injury, but he has been upgraded to questionable. However, they will remain without point guard Patrick Beverley, leaving Reggie Jackson and Lou Williams to pick up the slack.

[MARCHMADNESS]

Clippers vs. Mavericks Spread Trends and Prediction: Clippers -2

The Clippers took the first game by a 10-point margin, and I suspect that they’ll cover this spread. They have been the better team against the spread all season, as their 22-19 ATS record far outpaces Dallas’ 17-21 ATS record.

The Clippers have been rock-solid as road favorites, as they boast a 10-8 ATS record in such situations, but the Mavericks have underwhelmed at home. At 7-12 ATS in Dallas, they have the NBA’s fourth-worst record against the spread at home.

Dallas has also struggled against the spread when playing opponents on equal rest. Their 7-13 ATS record in such situations ranks second-worst, while the Clippers have a respectable 11-11 ATS record in such situations.

My NBA betting model, which uses pace and efficiency data that’s weighted for rest and recent performance, favors the Clippers by a 3-point margin. That gives us a point of edge here. With the trends and my model on the same side, I’ll take the Clippers.

Clippers vs. Mavericks Total Trends and Prediction: Under 226.5

I am genuinely confused as to why this total has been set so high. These teams have played twice this year, and they’ve combined for 197 and 208 points, respectively. The first game came without Kawhi Leonard, but the second came with each of the teams’ star players active.

The trends don’t love the under. The Clippers have the NBA’s sixth-highest over percentage (60%), while the Mavericks have the seventh-worst (44.7%). Dallas’ over percentage improves slightly to 47.4% when they play at home. In contrast, the Clippers’ over percentage falls slightly to 59.1% when they play on the road.

With the trends mixed, let’s turn to my NBA betting model. It projects these teams to combine for only 217.1 points, well below the posted total, because of how slow they both play. The Clippers play at the league’s second-slowest pace, and the Mavericks play at the fifth-slowest. These teams totaled only 91.8 possessions in their last meeting.

My model and the head-to-head data point to value on the under, so that’s what I’ll target tonight. I also like the Mavericks’ team-total under, which sits at 112.5.

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Clippers vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

I like the Clippers here, and you can buy them as 2-point favorites at BetMGM, PointsBet or William Hill. My model still points to an edge for them as 2.5-point favorites, so feel free to take the best juice available at FanDuel Sportsbook (-106). Should you disagree and favor the Mavericks, you can buy them as 2.5-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook. You can also burn a half-point for better juice at all other featured books. Before placing your bet, make sure to keep an eye out for any line movement via OddsShopper!

Clippers vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping

I love the under tonight, and since every sportsbook has the total set at the same figure, you only have to dig for the best juice. You can find it at PointsBet (-105). Should you disagree and favor the over, you can find the best juice at BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill (-110). You can follow all line movement yourself directly through OddsShopper.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.