The AP Comeback Player of the Year award is given to a player who “shows perseverance in overcoming adversity, in the form of not being in the NFL the previous year, overcoming a severe injury, or simply a poor performance.” Ryan Tannehill won the award most recently, and it typically gives football fans a chance to recognize the Cinderella story of the year. Given its niche popularity compared to Super Bowl victors and MVPs, the CPOY also presents a great chance to get down good action in a softer market.
The Breakdown
So what do should we look for in future winners of the award? History suggests there are two jumping-off points: quarterbacks and winning teams. A quarterback has won the award 12 times in the past 20 years (which feature 21 winners as a result of Steve Smith and Tedy Bruschi tying in 2005). The average number of wins by a CPOY team has been 10.5. Good teams have produced CPOY winners, and they are often at the quarterback position.
The reason these players missed time in the prior season is almost always injury with a handful of players being sidelined by medical conditions. The award says poor performances can make a player eligible, but the AP’s votes suggest otherwise. Winners have played, on average, 5.9 games in the prior season. Philip Rivers is the only quarterback in recent history to earn the award after playing a full season and staying healthy during the offseason. Bruschi’s win in 2005 came after he played a full season, but he suffered a stroke shortly after the year ended. Winners of the award most commonly played zero games before taking home the trophy.
Outside of quarterback, only two positions have won the award multiple times: Defensive end (2) and wide receiver (3). Two of the three receiver wins have come in the past five years while the defensive ends both won CPOY more than a decade ago. Quarterback clearly has a stranglehold on the award with wideout getting some recognition infrequently.
NFL Odds + Best Bets: Comeback Player of the Year
5. Ben Roethlisberger, +350
Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger are the clear favorites to win CPOY. Newton’s odds sit at +350 while Roethlisberger leads the pack at +350. Both deserve their spots at the top but Roethlisberger’s team gives him a considerable edge. The Patriots’ regular season win total varies based on the sportsbook, but it generally sits at 8.5, with some books giving them a flat nine. Pittsburgh’s win total is at nine across all books with at least one putting them at 9.5 wins. Roethlisberger threw for 5,129 yards in 2018, the seventh most in NFL history. He missed 14 games in 2019 with an elbow injury that he has reportedly made a full recovery from.
Newton deserves an honorable mention and does meet one unique criterion of some former winners. He is changing teams. Three of the winners have won CPOY immediately after changing teams. Michael Vick and Tommy Maddox missed time, changed teams and then served as a backup for a season before winning. Neither Newton nor Roethlisberger could be listed higher than No. 5 because of how high their odds are relative to other quality bets.
4. J.J. Watt, +1000
J.J. Watt winning would be a lifetime achievement award for the veteran pass rusher. He has missed 32 games over the past four regular seasons and only played a majority of games once. Watt would also get the benefit of added recovery time. Many players who are eyeing up this award are still dealing with health concerns while Watt, an absolute warrior, returned from his pectoral tear during the playoffs. He played on an apparent snap count but still notched a sack, a pass defense and two tackles for losses. He’s had eight months to continue his recovery and doesn’t need to be the 2014 version of himself to win. He posted 16 sacks in 2018, a mark that would surely make him the frontrunner for CPOY if he repeats it.
3. Nick Foles, +4000
Nick Foles is the perfect case of value being just too good to pass on. While FanDuel has him at an absurd +1400 odds, BetMGM’s number of +4000 is much more palatable. It also highlights why it is so important shop for the best line in, especially in weird markets like CPOY odds.
Foles is who this award was created for. His career has been filled with ups and downs, including a Super Bowl victory and getting traded to Chicago for a fourth-round pick. While in Jacksonville, he lost all four of his starts and suffered a clavicle fracture that cost him eight weeks. He now rejoins his former coach in Matt Nagy, who is currently Chicago’s head coach. The two worked together in Kansas City and Philadelphia.
Nagy was able to coax out a solid season from Mitchell Trubisky two years ago. He completed two-thirds of his attempts and threw for 24 scores. After his collapse in 2019, Foles should have no problem taking over the starting role early in the season or even by Week 1. If Foles can recapture some of the magic he found in Philadelphia, his +4000 odds will look laughable.
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2. A.J. Green, +2000
A.J. Green has struggled with injuries for many years now, most notably missing all of 2019 with a foot ailment. Most sources believed that Green saw the Bengals getting buried on a weekly basis and chose to use the entire season to heal. That should put him on track to be as healthy as possible heading into 2020 and make him a threat to take home CPOY. The three receivers to win before Green average a 1,404/101/11 receiving line to get there.
That's ✌🏾 first quarter TD's for A.J. Green! 💪🏾#BALvsCIN | #SeizeTheDEY
(via @NFL)https://t.co/S5UflcCnTT
— Yahoo Sports NFL (@YahooSportsNFL) September 14, 2018
Over his last four seasons, Green’s per-game stats (omitting two games that he left with injuries) come out to an 89/1315/9 line. All of those throws came from Andy Dalton with a sprinkling of A.J. McCarron. The upgrade to Joe Burrow is going to propel Green to his best season in years.
1. Matthew Stafford, +800
Matthew Stafford should have the shortest odds of any player. His 312.4 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game were both second in the league last year. He’s six years younger than Roethlisberger and doesn’t have longer health concerns like Newton. Plus, his team has the worst defense by a wide margin out of the three passers meaning he’ll be forced to rack up counting stats in shootouts. Stafford’s +800 odds might as well be a typo.
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