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NFL Odds & Props: AFC Championship Game Betting Picks
NFL Prop Bet: Tyreek Hill OVER 5.5 Receptions -128 (BetMGM)
The NFL Playoffs are winding down, and Championship weekend is upon us. We have the final four teams ready to go, and we get the classic doubleheader on Sunday to determine who heads to Florida for the Super Bowl. It is no surprise that there are four teams all worthy of being the Super Bowl champ, which should make both games must-see TV. The betting markets agree, with both home teams 3-point favorites in what are expected to be close, competitive matchups.
We still aren’t certain of the status of Patrick Mahomes, but it feels like he is going to play, and that’s how I am approaching this game. His homerun weapon on the outside in Tyreek Hill has several props, one being over 5.5 receptions, which is where I am going. Hill is incredibly explosive and gets the ball in a variety of ways, not only as a downfield threat.
Hill is coming off another big game, in which he had eight catches for 110 yards on 10 targets. He was utilized all over the field, including some screens, which are easy ways to boost his reception total. The Bills have some talent in their secondary, but to me that impacts more of Hill’s potential yards than his number of receptions. I talked about this concept last week with Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsey in the Green Bay game, and we saw Adams able to get the ball whenever Green Bay wanted him involved. I would expect a similar situation here, and given Mahomes could be limited with the foot issue, it is even more incentive for quicker throws.
This receptions line is juiced to the over, but only slightly. If Hill sees another 10 targets — which to me is more than reasonable — he should clear this receptions prop regardless of who is under center. Similarly, if the Chiefs are winning, Hill most likely will have contributed to those points. If they are trailing, expect major volume for the entire passing attack. Overall, Hill is too talented to rely solely on the deep ball, and I expect the Chiefs to have him involved early and often.
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