Welcome to The Prop Report presented by No House Advantage. For those new to the site, NHA is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) app that offers prop-based contests across multiple sports. Simply pick your five favorite player props for a given slate, rank them eight (most confident) through one (least confident) and receive those points for each prop that hits. The best part? Instead of facing a house advantage on props like you would with a sportsbook, No House Advantage has purely peer-to-peer contests with big cash prizes. Sign up here or download the app from the App Store to get started. I’m going to give you my three favorite NFL props to utilize in your highest confidence slots for Week 14.
The Prop Report Presented By No House Advantage | Week 14 NFL Picks
NFL Pick No. 1: Derrick Henry OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Despite a split 1-1 on Patriots props Thursday, The Prop Report has been riding high for multiple weeks now. Besides Dalvin Cook being allergic to the end zone in back-to-back weeks, our main-slate breakdowns have been on fire and bring some momentum into an intriguing Week 14. With so much best ball, DFS and sports-betting exposure for the masses, there’s a lot of ways our opponents can become overwhelmed come December. That means the edges can be more pronounced, especially on No House Advantage where the competition could end up overlooking obvious plays for this Sunday.
The most obvious amongst them has to be Henry going for at least one rushing touchdown against the hapless Jaguars. Henry is famous (or infamous) for his seasonal December outbursts, and now he heads into Jacksonville to face the 30th-ranked rush defense in the league. It’s not only that the Jaguars hemorrhage production on the ground (136.9 yards rushing per game) or to every offense they come in contact with (422.8 yards per game), but they also give up 29.2 points per outing, which is good for 31st in the NFL. That gives Henry the ultimate bounce-back spot to barge his way into the box on Sunday. DraftKings Sportsbook agrees with that assessment, as they’ve made him by far the biggest favorite to score on the slate at -335. That makes the over on 0.5 rushing touchdowns for Henry an easy smash for one of your top confidence slots.
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NFL Pick No. 2: Daniel Jones 0.5 Interceptions Thrown
As you know by now if you’re familiar with this article, I target quarterbacks to go over 0.5 interceptions on the daily. So it would have been especially sad to miss out on a golden opportunity to short a turnover-prone Jones on Sunday. Fortunately for our purposes, it sounds as though he’s set to make his return after a 1 1/2-game absence due to a hamstring injury. The Duke product has more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns (eight) on the season and will now be facing a desperate Cardinals team as a 3-point home dog.
It’s simple math, really; nine interceptions in 10 1/2 games played make his odds of throwing a pick Sunday a more likely occurrence than not. And while I strongly suggest targeting more than just Jones’ interception prop, he’s my favorite on the board in part due to his robust 32.8 pass attempts per game. In fact, I’m going to call my shot; standout safety/body-bagger/ballhawk Budda Baker will jump a route to pick off Jones at least once in this affair.
NFL Pick No. 3: Kirk Cousins 1.5 Touchdown Passes Thrown
I am not sure what to make of Cousins, so recommending this prop scares the living daylights out of me. But there is not a more bipolar defense that exists in the league right now than the Vikings’ Sunday opposition in the Buccaneers. While tops in the league at holding opposing offenses to only 74.2 measly yards rushing per game, the Bucs are all the way down to 27th when it comes to surrendering yardage through the air at 276.1 yards per outing.
A lot is being made of the Bucs coming off a late Week 13 bye that could make their secondary rested and ready to go, but I’m not too concerned. Cousins has only failed to surpass two touchdown passes in three of 12 games this season, and only once in his past seven. Plus, touchdown machine Adam Thielen was back to his scoring ways in Week 13 after a one-game hiatus, and standout rookie Justin Jefferson continues to exceed even the loftiest of expectations that were put on him. So let’s recap: Elite run defense plus abysmal pass defense equals heightened passing expectation for Cousins in this outing. That makes this a rare instance where I prefer the touchdown prop over the interception prop for one of the quarterbacks on this slate.
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