The Prop Report is back in action for the duration of the NBA playoffs. Identifying edges in the NBA betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper and the NBA Player Props Tool at Awesemo.com are here to help. This article focuses on my favorite NBA prop bets and NBA betting picks for tonight’s three Game 3s and which sportsbook offers the best odds for them.
The Prop Report: Top NBA Prop Bets | May 28
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NBA Prop Bet No. 1: Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 18.5 Points (-122)
The Hawks – Knicks series is the only one in action tonight that’s knotted up at one game apiece. That adds a level of intrigue around how superstars Trae Young and Julius Randle handle the big lights of this Game 3. But for prop betting purposes, it is still hard to see scoring being prevalent in this series, especially for anyone on the Hawks. With only 199 points total through the first two games of this series (and 62 of them from Young), shorting anyone on Atlanta who has a points prop above or near their season average seems like solid investment to make.
Enter Bogdanovic, who inexplicably has a lightly juiced 18.5 points prop listed over at FanDuel for this evening. Considering his season average is 16.4 per game, this automatically looks like an easy under. Couple that with a Knicks opposition that played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season and held him to 18 points each of the first two games, take advantage of this inflated number while it’s still there.
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NBA Prop Bet No. 2: Trae Young UNDER 9.5 Assists (+104)
Much of the last section applies here as well. This isn’t so much saying Young is going to play poorly or not distribute the ball well by taking the under on 9.5 assists here; it is simply factoring in the matchup and lack of possessions that will be available to the Hawks tonight. And since Young is averaging 9.4 assists on the year, even a downgrade of one assist is enough to make this very positive expected value bet at +104. Slam the under here and don’t think twice.
NBA Prop Bet No. 3: Landry Shamet OVER 6.5 (-115)
In one of the least flashy prop bet plays of all time, this over on 6.5 points for Shamet is perhaps the best wager of the night. After a Game 1 where he was limited to just 13 minutes due to a sprained ankle, Shamet came back in Game 2 to go 4-for-7 from the field on his way to 10 points in 25 minutes of work. That type of workload is more indicative of what to expect from him going forward, so the opportunity should be there for Shamet to hoist up 6-8 shots per game the remainder of this series. And considering most of those tend to be open 3s created by the presence of James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the floor next to him, Shamet should have plenty of chances to surpass 6.5 points in a hurry.
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