Identifying edges in the NFL betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my favorite Saturday Night Football prop bets for today’s two-game slate featureing the Bills vs. Broncos and Panthers vs. Packers, and which sportsbook offers the best odds for each NFL prop bet.
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NFL Week 15 Saturday Prop Bets | Bills vs. Broncos | Panthers vs. Packers
NFL Prop Bet No. 1: Drew Lock UNDER 21.5 Completions
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‘Tis the season when the NFL starts taking over Saturdays, and I couldn’t be more thrilled about it. Thirty of the 32 teams in the NFL will be in action over the next three days, which gives us a plethora of lines to choose from and betting opportunities to exploit. Saturday’s first game up features a 5.5-point road favorite Buffalo Bills squad (10-3) taking on the Denver Broncos (5-8) in Mile High Stadium. With a healthy 49 total, this matchup should feature more offense than expected than in years past.
One of the main reasons for an increase in the offensive outlook for this game lies in the quarterback play. The Bills’ Josh Allen has been a breakout performer throughout the 2020 NFL season, and the Broncos’ Drew Lock has steadily picked up his play in recent weeks. In fact, last Sunday’s 32-27 shootout in Carolina was Lock’s best performance of his young career, evidenced by his 280-passing yard, four-touchdown and no-interception stat line.
However, he reached those numbers on insane efficiency, going 21 for 27. It was Lock’s first time completing more than two-thirds of his passes in a game all season long. And despite the solid outing, that also made it three consecutive games Lock failed to eclipse 21 completions as the Broncos continue to rely mostly on the run. I don’t see that trend changing any time soon, especially due to the turnover-prone nature of Lock who sits second in the NFL with 13 interceptions in just 10 starts. Add in that you’re getting plus money (+105) to take the under on 21.5 completions, and this is great value. One unit should do the trick.
NFL Prop Bet No. 2: Aaron Rodgers UNDER 295.5 Passing Yards
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The Saturday nightcap features the Carolina Panthers (4-9) heading into Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (10-3). It’s essentially a two-horse race for the one-seed in the NFC, as the Saints (10-3) don’t have nearly as favorable a schedule as the Packers to finish out the season. It’s also a two-horse race for NFL MVP, as Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are the only two players with any chance at the trophy with three games remaining. That means I fully expect Rodgers to come out slinging tonight against a subpar Carolina defensive unit.
But this is a numbers game, and 295.5 is quite the hefty number compared to Awesemo’s expectations for him. I don’t want to give away too many of the goods, but there’s a near 30-yard disparity between Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projection for Rodgers in this spot and the line on this prop. There’s no doubt Rodgers has been exceptional, but he’s still failed to eclipse 295 passing yards in three consecutive outings and averages “just” 283.5 per game on the season.
And it’s not like the Packers won’t see success on the ground with Aaron Jones, who has been fed at least 15 times in the Packer’s past three outings. So sure, Rodgers could (and should) absolutely torch Carolina today. But he can still ball out and go substantially under 295.5 passing yards. That makes -110 on this number an easy one unit bet for me tonight.
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