Much like last week, the field for the Genesis Invitational is more limited, and, as of writing, there will be just 128 players teeing it up this week. For first-round leader purposes that gives us slightly better odds to hit an outright than at a regular full-field event – where we have 150+ starters many weeks. Our goal is still to focus on the best value in the field and also rely on some trends that could help us identify the best starting times.
Riviera is a long tough golf course, so players who aren’t bringing in good ball-striking form or haven’t produced much on the west coast swing shouldn’t be high on our radar. The weather this early in the season remains a concern and last week, the cool early morning temperatures led to much better scoring conditions in the afternoon and a first-round leader in Jason Day who started his first-round well after 12 p.m. This week the weather looks nearly identical with cooler-than-normal lows expected early in the morning on Thursday.
As always, this column will rely on OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to find the best value plays for first-round leader bets.
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2023 Genesis Invitational First Round Leader Bets
This event has seen first-round leaders come EXCLUSIVELY from the afternoon wave on Thursday in four of the last five seasons. That all means that we’ll once again be leaning in the afternoon wave for our picks and trying to avoid the early morning frosty temperatures — which should be a detriment to scoring just like they were last week.
Jordan Spieth First-Round Leader (+4500) at DraftKings
Spieth couldn’t get anything going at TPC Scottsdale on Sunday but still finished the week in 5th place. The 2015 Masters winner struck the ball extremely well, gaining over 8.0 strokes on approach alone. He lost strokes putting but now comes to a venue in Riviera where he has plenty of experience even going back to his amateur days. Spieth’s had some great weeks with the putter at Riviera and has been positive on the greens from a strokes gained perspective in each of the past two seasons.
He’s shown flashes of great form in 2023 and already has one first-round leader win under his belt from earlier in the season at the Sony Open (when he shot 64 on Thursday). Spieth will also be playing with newly minted number one Scottie Scheffler in a late afternoon tee time on Thursday and the presence of his nemesis from last week should be a good motivator to get off to a good start this Thursday. At +4500 odds (which are bigger than his tournament outright odds) he makes for a nice mid-range play to start our first-round leader cards with this week.
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Sahith Theegala First-Round Leader (+6000) at BetMGM
Theegala is always a name you should take notice of when he’s available at bigger prices. The second-year pro has shown a propensity for getting himself in contention in some very elite fields and has now recorded three top-eight finishes over his last eight starts. Over his last seven starts, Theegala has also shot six rounds of 66 or lower and with the form he’s shown of late, is fully capable of going low enough to grab us a first-round outright.
His week in Phoenix was waylaid by a couple of poor approaches but he’s now gained strokes around the green and putting in two straight events. Theegala’s also shown a preference for some of the longer courses out west and it was only two starts ago that he opened with a 66 at the tough Torrey Pines. This season will mark the third time he’s played Riviera as a pro and he did end up making the cut in each of those prior starts, despite having far less professional experience. Considering he goes out late Thursday and should have sunny skies and ideal temperatures to play in, seeing him start fast again wouldn’t be a shock. With his odds up from last week after a mediocre finish, adding him at 60-1 or bigger is an easy play.
For a wager on BetMGM this week, Sahith Theegala is a first-round leader target to consider. He has solid 60-1 odds there, longer than most other places. New BetMGM users even get first bet insurance up to $1,000!
WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader Longshot Bets
Long-shot bets in the first-round leader market hit all the time on the PGA Tour. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Alex Noren First Round Leader (+8000) at DraftKings
Alex Noren First Round Top 5 (+1100) at BetMGM
Noren missed the cut last week but it wasn’t a terrible performance by any means. He only missed by a stroke and made a solid charge up the leaderboard on Friday and encouragingly gained strokes on approach over the first two days. The Swede has multiple top-five finishes over his last five starts, worldwide, and will be making his fifth career start at Riviera this season.
He’s also a strong Poa putter who finished runner-up at Torrey Pines back in 2018. Noren’s lack of distance off the tee can be a detriment but he’s shown consistency in that area of late and only needs to be decent off the tee for one round for him to help us cash a first-round ticket. His putting upside alone makes him worth a chase at these prices, especially considering he has a solid 12:20 tee time for Thursday. With the weather likely to play in his favor, adding Noren to your Thursday card makes a lot of sense at big odds.
Patrick Rodgers First Round Leader (+9000) at BetMGM
Patrick Rodgers First Round Top 5 (+1600) at BetMGM
Unlike Noren, Rodgers is actually coming off a very solid week in Phoenix that saw him close with a 65. While he’s not the most consistent player on the PGA TOUR, the American seems to be over an early season injury issue and posted his best finish of 2023 last week at Phoenix with a 14th. Rodgers looked close to a breakout win back in the fall and is a noted west coast specialist who has posted multiple top-25 finishes at Riviera and opened with a 66 at this event back in 2019.
Rodger’s approach game will fluctuate over the tournament but his putter can certainly carry him for a round on a tough venue. He struck it well off the tee last week and has a very late afternoon tee time on Thursday which could see him start in the most ideal conditions. With +1600 odds in the top five market, it’s hard to say no to adding him this week to the first-round bets — especially on a venue where he’s had success before.
