PGA Betting Breakdown and Picks for the 2020 Workday Charity Open

The PGA Tour heads to Dublin, Ohio for the first of two consecutive tournaments at Muirfield Village Golf Club. This week’s tournament is the Workday Charity Open. The course will play as a par 72, and this could be a slightly tougher test than the last few weeks. Last week we saw Bryson DeChambeau take down a tournament where the big penalty for an errant drive was having just a slightly longer birdie putt. Players will not be able to swing as freely this week and that brings in a new skill set to consider. So we’ll be diversifying the player pool a little for our PGA betting card.

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Futures/Outright Winners

Hideki Matsuyama 16-1

I bet Matsuyama last week in the outright market, and, although he came up short, there were some positives to take out of the event. After an average-at-best Thursday, the cut sweat was on. But in typical Matsuyama fashion, he made the cut on the number and vaulted up the leaderboard on the weekend. He never truly threatened but was up to second at one point on Sunday, and his stats were impressive.

Matsuyama gained five strokes on the approach last week and another 2.8 off the tee, which led to a top-three showing tee to green. He actually struck it better than DeChambeau did and he should have been in serious contention for the win. Unfortunately, DeChambeau gained eight strokes putting while Matsuyama lost 2.3 and that was the difference in the week. That is something we have to live with as Matsuyama isn’t a great putter, but his ball striking could take down a tournament. Now he comes to Muirfield Village where he can lean on those irons, and he already has a victory on this course back in 2014.

Marc Leishman 50-1

Leishman is an easier bet than a DFS play as the range of outcomes is enormous every time he is in the field. This particular event is strong, but it is by no means a major in terms of strength. Yet we find Leishman 50-1 in the outright market. That number caught my eye immediately, and then when we think of his game, it is easy to build a narrative of why he can succeed here.

Leishman has always shown the ability to get hot with his irons and that is the top priority when trying to attack Muirfield Village. Through seven events in 2020, Leishman has gained on approach in every single one and that consistency sets the table for a big week. His putter is erratic, but the good thing is it is erratic both ways which gives him the ceiling we need to cash a bet like this. Leishman gained 6.1 strokes putting at API this year and another eight when he won at Farmers, so we know he can get hot in a hurry. The floor in an outright bet is irrelevant, so once we identify this type of upside, it is an easy addition to the outright card at 50-1.

Top 10

Joel Dahmen +800

I just finished talking about how good irons are the key to attacking this course, so it’s no surprise I’m targeting another pure ball striker. We have Dahmen sitting at 8-1 for a top-10 finish, and given the stats and recent form, this is an interesting spot. Dahmen hasn’t missed a cut since returning from the break and maintained his usual quality ball striking.

Dahmen has gained with the irons in every event going all the way back to Farmers in January. He gained over five strokes on the approach at Charles Schwab and last week at Rocket Mortgage he gained strokes in every category. The around the green game and the flatstick aren’t strengths of Dahmen’s game so seeing positive strokes there is a great sign for tapping into his upside. He already has a pair of top-five finishes during 2020 and a bunch of top-20s so we know that Dahmen can handle fields of this caliber. At +800 I like the spot to get Dahmen into contention for a top-10 showing, and I also will have exposure to him on the DFS side of things.

Matchup

Rickie Fowler (-120) vs. Viktor Hovland

There are a bunch of individual matchups to break down if you are looking for less volatility in your wagers. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player and you can take several head-to-heads with him hoping he doesn’t find the weekend.

The matchup I’m going to here has Rickie Fowler coming off a 12th-place Rocket Mortgage finish despite flirting with the cut line on Friday. Fowler gained across the board, but we are still waiting for his putter to heat up and carry him in one of these tournaments. Fowler has plenty of experience at Memorial and in recent years has contended with a 14th-, eighth- and second-place finishes since 2017.

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On the other side of this matchup, Viktor Hovland is playing out of his mind even though he still cannot figure out the putter. He gained another 9.6 strokes tee to green last week and he is one of the strongest drivers on Tour. He lost 3.5 strokes gained putting which, similar to Matsuyama, was why he couldn’t truly get in the mix last week. As good as that all is, there are a few issues here that have me a little concerned and show why I’m backing Fowler in this spot.

The first is that Hovland has played the weekend in every tournament back so he will now be playing his fifth straight week without any break. There’s minimal data on how that effects a player, but it is starting to creep into territory where I think you have to consider it. The more important factor goes back to the around-the-green game and the putter, both of which still haven’t shown many signs of life. There is no doubt Hovland can take apart any course with pure ball striking, but he will face a lot of long approach shots that could demand timely scrambling. Fowler has a major advantage in this specific category, and I think that will make the difference in this spot. With Fowler only laying -120, it’s a good time to buy as he is starting to round into form and Hovland’s stock is already sky high from his month-long stretch of quality golf.

Quick Notes

If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.

On the other side, we have head-to-head bets which naturally are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the PGA betting markets.