The Winning Element: PGA DFS Picks for The Scottish Open 2022

A trip over the Atlantic to the historic links of Scotland is where the PGA Tour will take us for the next few weeks. Play for the day will be over by 2 or 3 p.m. every day. It’ll start at 2:15 a.m. EST, so if you like your early morning golf, these are the ideal weeks for viewing.

First up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, as the strongest field in the event’s history has assembled. These weeks, which almost feel like major in terms of the field strength, are just missing a few golfers that are “LIV’in the life. It can make for difficult lineup construction with so many quality options, but at least this week, pricing isn’t all that harsh. Next week, however, may be the toughest pricing we’ve seen from a Major Championship in years. With half of the field coming from the DP World Tour and half from the PGA Tour, there will be plenty of unfamiliar names this week. This article will cover my top PGA DFS picks, ownership/exposure allocations, and my best golf bets for the week.

PGA DFS Picks & Golf Betting Predictions: Scottish Open 2022

PGA Weather Forecast

As is typical in these parts of the world, the weather is unpredictable and the primary defense of these otherwise exposed golf courses. Right now, the guys teeing off tomorrow morning will have the most significant advantage in terms of expected weather, with average winds of less than 10 mph. Still, the afternoon golfers will face an average of about 17 mph, climbing throughout the afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph. They won’t face much of a decrease when they turn around and tee off on Friday morning, with an average of about 15 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, while the a.m./p.m. wave will face steady winds of 20-plus mph in the afternoons, with gusts also up to 30 mph.

With that being known, gambling on the weather angle is always just that — a gamble — but with such a strong field, there are plenty of options if one is to want to go that way. All of my core selections will come from the a.m./p.m. wave this week.

PGA DFS Slate & Golf Betting Preview

Total Expected Team Pool: 63

Expected Number of Lineups Created: 150+

Total of Main Outright & Each Way Bets: 7

Total Longshots 100-1 or Greater: 1

Total Bombs 200-1 or Greater: 0

Eytan Shander and Ben Rasa give a full 2022 Scottish Open betting preview and find some of the best predictions for this week’s tournament.

2022 Scottish Open Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

Jordan Spieth made the airwaves early this week, as he and my two other favorites, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa (all three playing this week) and plenty of other top stars teed it up in the J.P. McManus Pro-Am. A team event featuring one pro and three amateurs who play a scramble, with both a team element and an individual pro side. Spieth forgot about the latter and picked up a gimmie par putt in Round 1, disqualifying himself. But, of course, being the father of an infant can cause those mental lapses from time to time — I would know.

In any case, back to golf this week, starting with Cantlay, who is coming into form finally but hasn’t had much success over here, having never played in a Scottish Open and failing to come in the top five of the Open Championship in his handful of starts. Morikawa has shown signs of improvement with the putter lately. He has shown he can get it done over here, as the defending champion of The Open Championship, but has struggled mightily under challenging conditions. He faced barely any of those last year, en route to the Claret Jug and it will be interesting to see him in conditions this week with 20-plus mph winds.

Lastly, that leaves Spieth, who missed the cut at the Travelers, but, only by a shot, after shooting a bogey-free 66 on Friday. Clearly enjoying his time abroad, Jordan’s the cheapest price he has been in months, and should set up well. He’s also the only one of the three with an early/late tee time, so he’ll jet up to the top of the allocation in terms of my favorites this week.

Make sure to check out OddsShopper to get the best golf betting odds this week.

Jon Rahm 

$11,000 DraftKings/$11,700 FanDuel | 12-1 

Playing with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) and Viktor Hovland ($8,800), Rahm has underperformed in his three starts since his win at the Mexico Open. Underperformance is a bit subjective, as he has come in the top 12 twice and made the cut in all three; as the second-highest priced golfer in the field, a T5 is needed to break even. What is encouraging, however, is that his putter is starting to wake up. Ranked outside the top 100 for most of the season, Rahm has switched putters a few times and has now gone back to an older model that seems to be working. His around-the-green game has also suffered from the poor putting — a confidence thing more than a skill thing — but historically, Rahm is fantastic around the green and should continue to gain form in that department. His ownership also remains relatively light, coming in around 13% in the Stokastic PGA DFS Ownership Projections, making it relatively easy to get 2x the field here this week. Rahm’s only appearance on this course in the last three years was last year when he came in seventh place.

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Sam Burns 

$9,200 DraftKings/$10,900 FanDuel | 28-1 Outright (DrafWtKings)+ Each Way 

Leading up to the Travelers Championship, Burns had played five of six weeks and has had a few bouts of “injury” flare-ups this year. So, with that news, fatigue certainly played a big factor in that missed cut a few weeks ago. Now, with a week off and some time to decompress and have fun with his fellow PGA Tour members, Burns has a decreased price, and ownership, versus where he has been. He also came in 18th here last year and has a good tee time — all reasons to go back to Slammin’ Sammy Burns this week.

Cameron Smith

$9,100 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel | 30-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

Record-breaking scores and huge victories all in two months are hard to keep up, so regression was inevitable for Smith. Now, we’ve seemed to go through that, and as such, his price has come down, and so has his ownership. One thing has remained constant, though, when his iron game is on and his putter is rolling, he’s one of the most dangerous guys out there. He can light up a scoreboard in a hurry and really only struggles with accuracy off the tee. That shouldn’t be an issue this week, and with the premium tee time in the morning tomorrow paired with Jordan Spieth and Tyrrell Hatton, Smith should bounce back into form quickly after the missed cut in his last start at the U.S. Open.

Mito Pereira 

$7,700 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel | 75-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

After absolutely ripping my heart out a few weeks at the Travelers, battling all the way back from +5 to miss the cut on the number, after bogeying two of his final three holes, we try one more time. He also gets the spot on the betting card instead of Joaquin Niemann, given that he’s almost twice his odds, and right now, when comparing both of their recent form, he seems just as likely to win. Both have the a.m./p.m. tee wave; thus, plenty of lineup allocation this week. We could be heading toward another heartbreak, I fear.

Lucas Herbert 

$7,600 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel | 50-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

After a breakthrough win earlier this year at the Bermuda Championship, similar to the links style played in these parts of the world, Herbert found himself on the first two pages of the leaderboard a couple of times this season. One of those was a tie for 13th at the PGA Championship, his best showing in a Major Championship to date. While he doesn’t necessarily consider himself a links golfer, it would be silly to say he doesn’t excel on these types of tracks, given that five of the best eight finishes in his career have come on similar golf courses. Adding onto that, and the top-10 from last week’s Irish Open, are a couple of top-5 finishes here at the Renaissance Club, something that should continue here this week.

Golf Betting Longshots

These golfers will get between 10% and 20% allocation this week and will be a part of the pre-tournament betting card.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 

$7,500 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel | 80-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

Admittedly, last week would have been a fantastic week to play Bez, given that he came in second place and was less than 15% owned. But, multiple times in his career, has he gone back-to-back starts with top-end form, including his breakout a few years ago, winning back-to-back weeks in his native homeland of South Africa. In fact, three out of the last four times he’s come in the top 10, he has come in the top 20 in his next start. So given that information, adding in the a.m./p.m. tee time, plus the fact that he’s made the cut two out of the three times he has played here, are all reasons to go back to Bezuidenhout this week.

Aaron Rai

$7,400 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel | 70-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

His first year on tour has gone quite swimmingly for Rai, who earned his Tour card through the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. Rai broke out at this event actually a few years ago, winning it. He hasn’t turned back since, climbing his way up the OWGR while adding a ton of consistency to go along with the occasional upside. He also seems to perform well in these parts, adding another top 10 at a links style course last week at the Irish Open, coming in a tie for ninth. It was his sixth made cut in a row and eighth out of his last nine. So while those eight starts have only yielded one top 10, given last week’s result, his top-end form isn’t far off. This should be the week.

Joohyung Kim

$6,400 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel | 400-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

Since we are on a bit of a roll with picking out these young guys and getting a quality return on them, we will give it another go here this week. Joohyung Kim, aka Tom Kim, has shown us quite a bit of promise in his limited starts on the PGA Tour. He came in a tie for 23rd at the U.S. Open and a tie for 17th at the Byron Nelson while missing the cut at the PGA Championship. Just 20 years old, from South Korea, Kim absolutely dominates the Asian Tour when he plays on it, coming in the top 5 in each of the last four events on that circuit. He’s got a big start here this week on a sponsor exemption and will also tee it up in next week’s Open Championship, a massive two weeks for the young man, who could earn himself a place to play on the big tours with a few good weeks.

PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ Ownership)

E = Equal-Weight to projected Ownership
U = Underweight to projected Ownership
O = Overweight to projected Ownership

1. Scottie Scheffler (E to O)
2. Justin Thomas (E)
3. Matthew Fitzpatrick (E)
4. Xander Schauffele (E to U)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (U)
6. Viktor Hovland (U)
7. Sungjae Im (E to U)
8. Ryan Fox (U)
9. Will Zalatoris (U)
10. Tommy Fleetwood (E to U)
11. Corey Conners (E)
12. Cameron Young (E to U)
13. Max Homa (U)
14. Keegan Bradley (U)
15. Keith Mitchell (E to O)
16. Tyrrell Hatton (E to O)
17. Sebastian Munoz (E)
18. Jordan Smith (E to U)

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

1. Joaquin Niemann
2. Haotong Li
3. K.H. Lee
4. Joel Dahmen

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

1. Justin Rose
2. Chris Kirk
3. Nicolai Hojgaard
4. Justin Harding
5. David Lipsky
6. Jhonattan Vegas
7. Victor Perez
8. Russell Knox
9. Rasmus Hojgaard
10. Ryan Palmer
11. Gary Woodland
12. Dylan Frittelli
13. Guido Miglozzi
14. Cameron Tringale
15. Wyndham Clark

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

1. Billy Horschel
2. Brian Harman
3. Adrian Meronk
4. Marc Leishman
5. Alex Noren
6. Robert MacIntyre
7. Johannes Veerman
8. Ewen Furgeson
9. Conny Syme
10. Grant Forrest
11. Daniel van Tonder
12. Doug Ghim
13. Luke List
14. Shubhankar Sharma
15. Garrick Higgo

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