All of my Fantasy Golf PGA DFS picks content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of our week-long material. It’s the pinnacle of where my research has taken me over the week and the culmination of the other three articles. Let’s get into some Arnold Palmer Picks!
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I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making 100 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs.
Article index
- Key/Legend
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Personal favorites
- Notes on the chalkiest players
- #NarrativeStreet
Key/Legend
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers every lineup. At least three from our core will be in every one of our lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard, and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- #NarrativeStreet: These golfers must fit one of the following criteria: 1. Live in the area of golf course 2. From the area of the golf course 3. Have something to play for (i.e., exemptions into majors or chasing a PGA Tour card).
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
- CH: Course history.
- RF: Recent form.
- Sprinkles: Guys that may make one or two lineups at the most.
- Higher Dollar: Contests with buy-in amounts over $100.
- MME: Mass multi-entries.
- EW: Equal-weight to the expected ownership.
- OW: Overweight the expected ownership.
- UW: Underweight the expected ownership.
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Last Week Article Recap
If you follow my shenanigans on Twitter, you know how my week went. If not, then just know I’ll never be playing Brooks again. (lock him in for a win this week)
It was a bad week because of him and Mitchell. Stanley and Hovland less so, but I blew having the winner as part of the core.
Tournament TV Times
PGA Tour LiveÂ
We get a break from CBS coverage until The Masters, as NBC takes over. PGA Tour will start at the opening tee at 6:45 p.m. EST.
- Thursday: 2-6 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
- Friday: 2-7 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
- Saturday: 1-3 p.m. EST (Golf Channel); 3-6 p.m. EST (NBC)
- Sunday: 1-3 p.m. EST (Golf Channel); 3-6 p.m. EST (NBC)
Weather
The weather is what led me to go off of Tommy and onto Brooks, for that anchor, and that cost me. Now again, we have a problem.
Player Focus
With the pending weather, I’m going to stack it again, except for a couple of golfers.
Notes
- Core: 8
- Favorites: 1
- Fringe: 7 + 3 (missed cuts)
- Alternates: 17
- Holes in One: 7
- Chalk zone: 12
- Total: 53; a little bit more than normal since I’m not really going much overweight on anyone.
Core PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Picks
Personal Favorites as Part of the Core
Collin MorikawaÂ
The Rest
Rory McIlroy ($11,800/$12,200)
I think it’s important to give him a paragraph or two here. In certain contests, he will be over 50% owned, and we get one of those rare decisions. Lock him in, and get the leverage, or fade him. He’s been almost unmatched in his pursuit to be the best, gaining nearly a third of a stroke more per round total than the closest competitor. I was a bit shocked to see such high ownership, so I had to go to the boss (Alex Awesemo Baker) and ask his opinion on why it’s so high. And according to Alex, the likely hood of a top-five for Rory is even higher than the 11.8K price tag, according to the oddsmakers, so in fact, he could be undervalued.
If you are a single entry player gamer, I can’t tell you to fade him; he’s been too good. Alternatively, I don’t usually tell people to hit the lock button either. My advice is to decide where you want to get leverage. Do you play in multiple contests/buy-ins? Choose where you want that sweat and stick to it.
- Target Allocation: 50%
- Projected Ownership: 40%
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,000/$11,8000)
Tommy really loves Florida…huh? Another top 5 last week down in west palm beach, and now to Bay Hill where he held the lead through 36 last year. He’s going to be less than 10% owned because of the rush to Rory, and where I’m not playing him, I’ll play Tommy. His game all around looked good last week, gaining at least .45 strokes in all four categories.
- Target Allocation: 30%
- Projected Ownership: 10%
Tony Finau ($8,900/$10,700)
While it wasn’t his best finish out at the Genesis, Tony is still sitting on two top 5’s over the last nine weeks. He’s been on the verge of a big win for what feels like years, but we don’t need a win at these prices. Speaking of price, he’s down from his height and is back down to a good second person in the lineup. He doesn’t have great success here, but I’m not a firm believer in that since he almost won the Waste Management, a place where he hadn’t made the cut in years.
- Target Allocation: 30%
- Projected Ownership: 10%
Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,600/$9,000)
Back to back top 20’s for Rafa in LA and in Mexico, and he’s back in form after that weird missed cut at Pebble. His off the tee game has returned, and his putter has cooperated. Now he needs his irons to follow, but at this price, we just need them to have a little tick up, not a huge one. He’s got good memories to work off of from last year, finishing in the top 5 here, so he’ll have plenty to pull off of.
- Target Allocation: 30%
- Projected Ownership: 10%
Francesco Molinari ($7,200/$9,000)Â
My nostalgic pick of the year, Molinari was 9K and low owned last year at this tournament. LETS GO AGAIN. But this time at 7200! It’s probably not a great play, but this guy has got talent, a lot of it, and he needs to have one or two good weeks a year, this feels like it could be one of them. He loves it here, finishing no worse than 27th since 2013, so what better place to break out of a slump there here? A slump that by and large has lasted since Sunday at Augusta last year.
- Target Allocation: 20%
- Projected Ownership: 5%
Lanto Griffin ($6,800/$8,400)
I’m heading back to an old friend here, as I feel his game is similar to that of J.T. Poston, and I’m getting an 800 discount off of that this week. Hence why there’s no Poston here. Lanto’s made three straight cuts since his regression after the big win in Houston and now should settle back into who he’ll be long term.
- Target Allocation: 20%
- Projected Ownership: 5%
Matt Wallace ($6,800/$8,100)
I’ve spoken about Wallace a couple of times this week, and I may be early, but that’s fine. He was so close last week, and he missed the cut. I’m kind of happy about that cause I wasn’t on him as much as I wanted to be. Now, thanks to some mudballs, we get him at depressed salary and ownership. I’ll buy the long term talent here.
- Target Allocation: 20%
- Projected Ownership: 5%
Sung Kang ($6,800/$8,200)
Kang is the ultimate boom or bust play, and his results show it. Even here, he’s got a top 10, and a missed cut in his three tries. Also, looking at his last three starts, it’s something similar to that as well. So I would say try and understand that when you go to roster him at a high clip. He’s been great off the tee this year, which has helped steady results to a degree, but the roller coaster that his game is definitely still there.
- Target Allocation: 20%
- Projected Ownership: 5%
Missed Cut as Part of the Core Last Time They Played
So many times in my career playing PGA DFS, I’ve been a week early on a guy. So I’m adding this section here for golfers that the last time they played, they missed the cut and were part of my core. I’m going to play them likely as part of the core again, or at least as a fringe play.
Players that Qualify
- Viktor Hovland
- Keith Mitchell
- Kyle Stanley
They were all so bad last week that I’ve got a bad taste in my mouth. I’m going to play them but at a fringe play rather than core.
Fringe PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Picks
Targeted to 15-20% Ownership (no specific order) &Â likely they will end up in a high dollar lineup somewhere.Â
- Jason Day
- Henrik Stenson
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Lee Westwood
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Billy Horschel
- Andrew Putnam
Alternates (5-15% owned)
- Emiliano Grillo
- Talor Gooch
- Scott Scheffler
- Cameron Champ
- Sebastian Munoz
- Carlos Ortiz
- Brendon Todd
- Matthew NeSmith
- Danny Willett
- Harry Higgs
- Rory Sabbatini
- Mark Hubbard
- Harold Varner III
- Corey Conners
- Matthew Wolff
- Joaquin Niemann
- Maverick McNealy
Holes in One (1-5% owned)
- Sam Burns
- Keegan Bradley
- Ryan Moore
- Si Woo Kim
- Scott Piercy
- C.T. Pan
- Kevin Na
ChalkZone
This covers how I’m playing anyone ranked in the top-20 projected ownership by Awesemo not listed above in my PGA DFS lineups.
Weights to Projected Ownership
- E =Equal
- U = Under
- O = Over
Players
- Adam Scott (E to U)
- Abraham Ancer (E to U)
- Xander Schauffle (E to U)
- Sungjae Im (E to U)
- Byeong Hun An ( E to U)
- Patrick Reed ( E to U)
- Bryson Dechambeau (E)
- Hideki Matsuyama (E)
- Rickie Fowler (E to U)
- Brooks Koepka (None)
#NarrativeStreet
Field Changes
- N/A
Monday Qualifiers
- N/A
Sponsor Invites
- Anirban Lahiri
- Hank Lebioda
- Sam burns
- Kevin Chappell
- Stweart Cink
- Padraig Harrington
- Charley Hoffman
- Rob Oppenheim
- Charl Schwartzel
- Steve Stricker
- Beau Hossler
- Brandon Matthews- this is the guy that had a fan with down syndrome yell in his backstroke on a putt to win the tournament. Instead of getting mad, he went over and hugged him, now the API staff game him a SE. awesome
- Sam Saunders
- Doc Redman
- Patrick Rodgers
- Sam Ryder
- Sam Saunders
- Robby Shelton
Hometown Heroes Either by College or Grown-up
- There are so many around here, including Ian Poulter, Billy Horschel, & Many more
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