With all eyes on the NFL playoffs, we have the opportunity to put some extra time into this slate and get a nice edge. College Basketball Sunday is always a fun one and today is no different with some phenomenal matchups throughout the day. For DFS purposes, this is a rare slate that doesn’t include an abnormally high over/under. We’ll have to dig in and analyze matchups rather than simply plug in options from a game total that is 20 points higher than the field. We’ll kick the CBB DFS slate off with an exciting game between Michigan and Minnesota and close it off with a bout between Wichita State and Connecticut that’s going to fly under the radar.
Per the usual, FanDuel and DraftKings can’t agree on the main slate. FanDuel has included two later games and I’ll make sure to include some plays in the “Consider” sections. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out on Twitter @VarneyDFS. Let’s take a look at this CBB DFS slate in the background of a fun NFL weekend.
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Games and Lines
Michigan @ Minnesota (-2) – 140
Michigan State (-4) @ Purdue – 135
Wichita State (-3) @ Connecticut – 133
Memphis (-4) @ South Florida – 133
Pittsburgh @ Miami (-3) – 140 (FD Only)
Utah @ Colorado (-8) – 140 (FD Only)
Game to Target
Michigan @ Minnesota (-2) – 140
We don’t have any high totals to play with on this slate, so we’ll have to dive a bit deeper than usual. The highest projected total of the day is Michigan-Minnesota at 140, where the Wolverines will come in as two-point underdogs. Both teams have a flurry of CBB DFS weapons to consider and we’ll highlight options on both sides. The Golden Gophers will play up in pace, as Michigan ranks 82nd in the country with 73.7 possessions per game.
Minnesota is a bit too cheap across the board and you can take advantage in both cash games and tournaments. On the Michigan side, Isaiah Livers will continue sitting with an injury and he’s a big piece of their offense. Brandon Johns Jr. has done a serviceable job of filling in, but he’s not the scorer Livers is. Michigan has been demolished by big men of late with Purdue’s Trevion Williams going for 36 points and 20 rebounds a game ago. Jon Teske will have his work cut out for him once again with an even better big in Daniel Otoru. We’ll get there.
FanDuel and DraftKings CBB DFS TargetsÂ
Guards
Marcus Carr – Minnesota – FanDuel $7,100 – DraftKings $8,200
With Minnesota playing up in pace and favored in the highest over/under on the board, Marcus Carr is our top option at guard. The Golden Gophers are going to see an increase in pace and Carr thrives in the open floor. Wolverines point guard Zavier Simpson is known as a great defender, but he’s more of an elite passing lane interrupter. He’s not great when it comes to one-on-ones and he’s even worse against the pick-and-roll.
Carr isn’t a household name in college basketball as he was a freshman standout at Pittsburgh before transferring and was forced to sit out a year. He’s one of the best all-around guards in the nation and will be looking to bounce back after struggling against Michigan State. The Wolverines have been susceptible against bigger guards and I expect Carr to give Simpson problems in the paint. Without a high-total game to default to when paying up for a guard, ownership is going to be a bit spread out between these pricey options.
Cassius Winston – Michigan State – FanDuel $7,800 – DraftKings $8,400
If you’re not a fan of paying up for Carr, or you plan on getting your Minnesota exposure elsewhere and don’t want too much, Cassius Winston is a great pivot. After a somewhat slow start to the season, Winston has been a man on fire of late with 40-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games. With forward Xavier Tillman finally giving the guard some help, the offense has opened up a bit for Winston. Purdue plays relatively slow (260th in possessions per game), but Eric Hunter Jr. and the rest of these guards have no chance at slowing down Winston. They have some monsters on the inside that make it tough, but that just means Winston may get a few extra shots from the perimeter. It seems like Winston is getting into form for the late-season stretch and I expect another 40 fantasy points in this matchup.
Laquincy Rideau – South Florida – FanDuel $6,800 – DraftKings $7,900
This is a very interesting spot for South Florida that can go one of two ways. Memphis plays at the 10th-fastest pace (77 possessions per game) in the country, but also hold the second-best defensive efficiency after the Virginia Cavaliers. The Tigers let up a lot of points, but they don’t make anything easy and you certainly won’t get much going in the paint. That’s where Laquincy Rideau comes into play as a guy who can drop 25 points from the perimeter. He is dragged down by the pace of South Florida on most nights and will thrive in this fast-paced environment. Rideau is locked into his 35 minutes a game and unlike a lot of CBB superstars, he doesn’t just score. Rideau averages four rebounds and four assists on top of his 14 points per game while playing at one of the slowest paces in the NCAA. David Collins is worth considering as well as he can get hot from the perimeter and put up 40 fantasy points. I love Rideau in all CBB DFS formats as I think he puts up 30 fantasy points, no matter the outcome of the game.
Payton Willis – Minnesota – FanDuel $4,800 – DraftKings $5,600
Payton Willis is your clear pricing error on both sites. He just came back from injury two games ago and was fully cleared last time out. He struggled against the tough Michigan State defense, but so did the entire team. What really matters is Willis got to 32 minutes, which means he’s fully back. Michigan will exhaust their resources on Carr and Daniel Oturu and it’s going to leave one of the Wolverines worse defenders on Willis. He’s a do-it-all guard that can put up 25 fantasy points and play a huge role in this game. Willis will eventually be in the upper-$6,000s on both sites and I’ll have 100% exposure at this price in a game that will be faster than a typical Minnesota contest.
Consider – Christian Vital (CONN), Sasha Stefanovic (PUR), Lester Quinones (MEM), David Collins (USF), Tyler Bey, (CU), Chris Lykes (MIA)
Forwards
Daniel Oturu – Minnesota – FanDuel $8,700 – DraftKings $9,200
If you can find a way to afford Daniel Oturu, he’s far and away the best play on the slate. Not only is Oturu an absolute animal, which we’ll get to, but Michigan has been laughably bad against bigs this season. Ignoring the whopping 65 fantasy points they just gave up to Trevion Williams, Michigan has given up nine 15-rebound games so far and rank 277th in defensive efficiency in the paint. Oturu very well may be the best big man in college hoops. He averages 19.3 points per game and 12.3 rebounds with a double-double in 10 of 15 games and six of his last seven. He’s averaged 42 fantasy points over the last two weeks and could break the slate against Michigan. The Golden Gophers are not only seeing a huge uptick in pace, but they’re facing a Michigan interior that’s missing Livers and they already don’t like to play physical. In cash games, do whatever you can to fit Oturu in there.
Xavier Tillman – Michigan State – FanDuel $8,300 – DraftKings $8,700
There’s an argument to made against Oturu and it looks like this: Michigan knows what just happen against Purdue and they know what’s coming in Oturu. They may double-team him and force the Gophers to find another way. Teske is going to have one task in this game and it’s going to be to hold back the big man. I don’t agree, but this is CBB DFS and crazier things happen. Xavier Tillman will be far lower owned and the big man has been nothing short of miraculous of late. He’s been over 47 fantasy points in three straight games and got up to 62 against Minnesota last time out.
Winston and Tillman have finally drilled this offense into place and it’s based solely around the two of them. Tillman is not just an athletic freak, but he has legitimate post moves and can score on anyone in the country. He’s eclipsed 11 boards in three of the last four and averages a double-double (14.3/10.2). Purdue has a few solid big men, but they’re certainly not a lockdown defense in the paint. Tillman is going to be over 40 fantasy points once again and I love him as a pivot off Oturu. If you can find enough value, there is a GPP edge in jamming both Oturu and Tillman in there as not many will have a similar CBB DFS roster construction.
Trevion Williams – Purdue – FanDuel $6,600 – DraftKings $6,500
Williams may never have another game where he scores 36 points and rebounds 20. Still, it’s nice to know the big man has a high motor and the upside is always there. It was also nice to see Purdue willing to play through Williams, as the offense doesn’t typically go through any one player. Michigan State is by no means an easy matchup individually, but it may work to Williams’ advantage. He plays more against big frontcourts and Michigan State is one of the biggest. He’ll also likely see the easier matchup as Tillman should be on Matt Haarms. Aaron Henry is a tough player, but doesn’t compare to the footwork and speed of Williams. Last game may have been an outlier, but he’s been over 31 fantasy points in four of the last five games. And slowly, Purdue is moving towards their offense running through Williams. His price has some moving to do and we can hop on while Williams is still affordable on both sites.
Akok Akok – Connecticut – FanDuel $6,100 – DraftKings $6,100
This is the first Connecticut Husky I’m recommending, but I don’t mind Christian Vital either at guard. The Huskies play at a slow pace, but won’t be able to today against a Wichita State team that ranks 69th in possessions per game at 74. The big knock on Akok Akok has been his lack of minutes, but he’s been at 33 minutes in two of the last three. He has been great of late, eclipsing 25 fantasy points in three of the last four. Each of those game was played at a slower pace than this one will be and Akok thrives on peripherals. He only averages 6.7 points per game, but adds 6.3 rebounds and a whopping 3.2 blocks. Expect Akok to play a big role in this game against Wichita State and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the big man double-double if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Consider – Precious Achiuwa (MEM), Alihan Demir (MINN), Brandon Johns Jr. (MICH). Both Gach (UTAH), Evan Battey (UC)
