MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

I’m going to take a page out of everyone’s favorite optimizer’s book and just say it’s FanDuel’s fault this is getting done so late. That’s a half-truth at best, the outage slowed things down briefly early on and then I got a bit carried away crunching lineups and looking at groups for Sunday. When it was time to update I had to wrangle a few more items than expected in the model and here we are. But as always, we’ve got home runs for the both the early and main slates and high-end stack plays for the main slate.

Tomorrow looks interesting with most of the name-brand pitching going in the four game early slate. The top two starters from a price perspective are Zach Plesac and Zac Gallen who should get together and decide how to spell that name. Beyond that it’s a bit of a no man’s land of guys that we’d call “has been”, “never was” or Kyle Hendricks. Oh, we’ve also got a Coors game on the slate. Seems like a day that bats are going to dominate.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker – 8.93

Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley – 7.67

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts – 8.14

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez – 10.79

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada – 19.05

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas – 11.28

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 6.14

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado – 13.56

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera – 9.57

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman – 7.11

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez – 10.25

Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon – 6.76

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy – 3.36

Miami Marlins: Matt Joyce – 10.81

Milwaukee Brewers: Dan Vogelbach – 7.09

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson – 7.82

New York Mets: J.D. Davis – 13.08

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: n/a

Philadelphia Phillies: J.T. Realmuto – 10.33

Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran – 6.31

San Diego Padres: n/a

San Francisco Giants: n/a

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 7.46

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong – 8.55

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe – 10.94

Texas Rangers: n/a

Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Shaw – 4.14

Washington Nationals: Trea Turner – 8.17

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox – Tigers – Yes, Really – 1-2-4-5-7 – Victor Reyes – Jonathan Schoop – Jeimer Candelario – Willi Castro – Daz Cameron

Not the one you were expecting? The White Sox look plenty good here, don’t get me wrong. But when we have just a few very good teams to talk about most days, it’s always worthwhile to dive in when one of the oddballs pops up. In their matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, I think there’s enough meat on the bone for the Tigers offense here. I might regret using this one in this space when I’m looking for sneaky plays in Stack Slants tomorrow, but given their low pricing and the matchup I expect them to be popular.

Lopez is a high-pedigree starter who is yet to put things together on any consistent basis at the major league level. Hyped among the top prospects in his class in most of the major pipelines, Lopez has so far delivered a 5.26 xFIP with a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 1.41 HR/9 over his 474 innings in the Show. He’s been struggling with allowing hard contact and has lacked put-away stuff at the major league level. Ultimately Lopez is a pitcher we can reliably target, it’s just more comfortable to do with a better offense.

The .176 ISO posted by the Tigers’ active roster to this point in 2020 ranks 16th in baseball against right handed pitching. Their WRC+ in the split is 12% below average and they strike out a league high 28.3% of the time. At best, this is a mixed bag of a stack. Still, there’s enough appeal between price and upside that we can get to the Tigers here.

Victor Reyes hits from both sides of the plate and is in the leadoff spot in the projected lineup. He’s having a nice season at .315/.346/.473 with four home runs and a WRC+ 21% above average. He’s not a major power option but he’s been delivering in terms of getting on base reliably in front of better home run bats behind him. The hit and on-base tools have been in place since last year, Reyes put up a .304/.336/.431 slash in 2019, though he had just three home runs and a lower ISO, so the improved power is encouraging.

Jonathan Schoop is probably the best overall bat on this team at this point. The always undervalued second baseman costs $4,300 on DraftKings and just $3,000 on FanDuel. He has terrific power upside on most slates and in this matchup he could easily put up a big score. The power has been in place throughout Schoop’s career. In 1,915 plate appearances since the start of 2015, Schoop is second in all of baseball with 92 home runs against right-handed pitching. Only Rougned Odor has more, with 100, though his WRC+ is actually 13% below average, while Schoop’s was five percent above. Over that sample, Schoop’s home runs were more than Robinson Cano‘s 83, Jose Altuve‘s 79 in 400 more plate appearances, and Javier Baez’ 76 in 200 fewer.

Miguel Cabrera is pulling a quality home run mark in my model for tomorrow, so you know this must be a decent spot for power. Old man Cabrera can still get around on one from time to time, he’s got five home runs so far this year, though his .116 ISO is, frankly, sad in contrast with his career. The first baseman costs a mere $3,200 on DraftKings, which is our real headline. I expect this to draw some ownership hitting third in this matchup. Cabrera is definitely in play here, I just might push my exposures below the field if things do get heavy, if not I’ll be overweight in what I think is a good spot.

Jeimer Candelario brings another decent power bat to the middle of this lineup for MLB DFS purposes. hitting from both sides of the plate he offers solid upside, though he plays the same position as Cabrera on DraftKings, making it impossible to play the duo together in stacks. Candelario has slightly less home run upside than Cabrera in my model but it’s very close, as is the overall projection. The $3,900 price tag is not too bad for a bat that has a .333/.389/.590 slash this year with seven home runs, a .257 ISO and a WRC+ 63% above average. Again depending on ownership, this could be a good pay up to be different type of pivot.

Willi Castro is another switch hitter, this time one with third base and shortstop eligibility on DraftKings, making him an asset in our construction efforts. Castro is quietly having an excellent start to his season. Over his first 81 plate appearances he has a .360/.388/.560 slash with a .200 ISO and a WRC+ 55% above average. In 183 plate appearances against right-handed pitching dating to the start of 2018, Castro has three home runs, a .283/.318/.442 slash and a .159 ISO, with a WRC+ precisely at league average.

Jorge Bonifacio and Isaac Paredes are mix and match options with low caps and limited upside for me from late in this lineup. Of the pair, Bonifacio is better with his .142 ISO in 236 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of 2018. If we’re fishing late in the lineup, I prefer to get to a different outfielder that I’m hoping sneaks by notice here.

Daz Cameron is the son of longtime MLB outfielder Mike Cameron. While it’s unfair to draw direct comparisons to his father who was a very high-quality player, that’s exactly what I’m about to do. Mike Cameron had five 20-20 seasons and eight seasons of 20 or more home runs overall. His son has been a highly regarded prospect for years and has the same mix of tools. In 528 plate appearances for the organization in AAA last season, Cameron hit 13 home runs and stole 17 bases. In a 511 plate appearance season in AA in 2017 he hit 14 and stole 32. The kid is for real, the price is fantastic at just $2,500, I like him as an end-cap to my Tigers stacks.

Austin Romine is worth mentioning as a catcher play on DraftKings. While he’s nowhere near the upside of the top catchers in the league, he’s also unlikely to draw immense ownership and he’s capable of hitting one out from time to time. Romine has two home runs so far in 2020 and he hit eight in 240 plate appearances in 2019. He’s fine, though not nearly a go-to play in this spot.

Cubs @ Brewers – Cubs – 1-2-3-4-6 – Ian Happ – Kris Bryant – Anthony Rizzo – Javier Baez – Willson Contreras

The Cubs are in Milwaukee again tomorrow, this time taking on Brett Anderson. This not being 2014, it’s probably unfair to expect a huge start from the aging lefty hurler and this should be a decent MLB DFS spot. Anderson has a 4.54 xFIP in his 33.0 innings in 2020, which doesn’t pair well with his 14.7% strikeout rate. Anderson has steadily allowed more power to right-handed hitting over the course of his career, this inning he’s given up four home runs to that side of the plate in his limited innings, just one to lefties. Overall this is usually a pitcher we can throw some bats at with confidence. The sticky part tomorrow is the Cubs’ active roster’s history against left-handed pitching.

Over the course of 2020, the Cubs are 28th in baseball against lefties with just a .114 ISO. They have a WRC+ 24% below average in the split along with a .204/.315/.318 slash and just eight home runs. If we extend the sample to the start of 2018, the active roster is hitting .243/.322/.399 with a WRC+ just eight percent below average and a .156 ISO, which seems more in-line with what this team is, though it’s still not special by any means. Still, box score watchers and perhaps some other sites will be talking about the very recent history and ignoring the upside in the larger sample and we might be able to exploit that on a slate with relatively low implied team totals in every game outside of Coors field.

The Cubs start things off with switch-hitting Ian Happ and right-handed Kris Bryant up top. Happ is a hitter you know I like if you’ve read anything I’ve written about this team going back to before the season started. Happ has been absolutely smoking everything thrown his direction in 2020. He has a .324 ISO with a WRC+ 60% above average over 176 plate appearances and is getting on base at a .394 clip ahead of some absolute mashers in this lineup. At a discounted $4,700 I’m happy to click Happ first and frequently tomorrow.

Is it weird that Kris Bryant is still only 28? Am I the only one who feels like he’s been in the league for more than a decade at this point? The slugging third baseman has excellent upside on any slate but has largely scuffled through 2020 so far. He’s carrying just a .206/.280/.320 slash this year with a WRC+ a whopping 47% below average. I care about none of that. This is a player with a .321 ISO in 250 plate appearances against lefties dating back to the start of 2018. He has a WRC+ 79% above average over that stretch, there’s nothing to worry about here, we’re getting a big discount on Bryant’s upside at just $4,400 on DraftKings.

Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber are known commodities and high-end lefty bats, but it’s difficult to deny that their upside is somewhat capped in same-handed matchups. While both can go deep against any pitcher, Rizzo has just a .132 ISO since the start of 2018 in our split sample, while Schwarber is at .160. Rizzo at least manages to limit his strikeouts to just 16% and he has a WRC+ just seven percent below average. Schwarber has an unsightly 30.9% strikeout rate against same-handed pitching and his WRC+ is 13% below average.

Javier Baez is a big right-handed bat in the middle of this lineup who is known for his power at the shortstop position. The cleanup hitter is always in play for me and costs just $4,600. Over the course of our more than two-year sample, Baez has made 300 plate appearances against lefties. He’s carrying a .284 ISO and a WRC+ 38% above average. This is a fantastic hitter for this spot and he pairs well with Bryant, with or without the lefties around them.

Catcher Willson Contreras is also in play against any lefty. Against a bad one like this he could be very popular, so watch the ownership. Contreras will be hitting in the middle of the lineup and brings a track record that includes a .217 ISO and a WRC+ 23% above average over our sample against left-handed pitching. Contreras strikes out more than we would like, at 26.1%, but his 12.8% walk rate in the split makes up for it and his .366 on-base percentage is excellent for any position, let alone catcher.

Jason Heyward may or may not be in the lineup in a lefty-lefty matchup. There’s always some upside in Heyward’s bat and he’s rarely popular. At just $3,500 we can roll him out in limited fashion if he’s in the lineup. In 131 plate appearances in 2020, Heyward has a .293/.412/.519 slash and has hit five home runs, though he has just a .087 ISO over the sample since the start of 2018. Cameron Maybin could be more interesting. Maybin costs just $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel while offering an upside-friendly mix of power and speed. The veteran outfielder has one home run and one stolen base in his 72 plate appearances so far this year and I can buy into his career .357 on-base percentage putting him in play as a good wraparound option for us.

HR Call: Eloy Jimenez (White Sox)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.