MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

Tomorrow has an MLB DFS slate, just in case you hadn’t noticed. With pretty much everyone looking a different direction around the 1:05 p.m. lock, there isn’t a ton of guarantee at the top of prize pools, but the fields will also likely be somewhat less sharp than normal. The public is going to miss out on some fun baseball games and what looks like a heavy upside eight-game main slate.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Josh VanMeter – 9.89

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman – 9.62

Baltimore Orioles: Cedric Mullins – 6.52

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez – 13.02

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu – 13.29

Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino – 15.03

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes – 17.16

Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon – 10.60

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop – 10.87

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman – 20.95

Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi – 7.57

Los Angeles Angels: n/a

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy – 11.84

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 7.73

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Dominic Smith – 9.75

New York Yankees: Luke Voit – 9.25

Oakland Athletics: n/a

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper – 12.98

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: n/a

San Francisco Giants: n/a

Seattle Mariners: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Hunter Renfroe – 21.47

Texas Rangers: n/a

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 12.90

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets – 1-2-4-6-7 – Nimmo – Conforto – Smith – Alonso – McNeil

The Braves are wrapping up the weekend series in Queens with Kyle Wright on the hill. The struggling right-hander will be facing a Mets lineup that is 12th in baseball with a .181 ISO and a WRC+ 22% above average in the split.

Wright has a 5.86 xFIP in his 25.0 innings so far in 2020. He’s striking out just 16.4% of hitters while walking the same percentage, which is a completely untenable ratio. Wright is inducing just 9.5% swinging strikes and doesn’t seem to have command of his stuff to the point where he can reliably retire major league hitters.

The Mets lineup should be roughly the one we’ve covered several times in this space. Starting with the pair of excellent left-handed outfielders in Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto gets this lineup going. Both hitters get on base at better than a .400 clip, Conforto at a .427. Nimmo is creating runs at a pace 52% better than average, Conforto is outdoing him at 67% better. At $4,000 Nimmo is probably underpriced on DraftKings, while Conforto is about right at $5,000. Unsurprisingly, the duo is underpriced on FanDuel. They make a great play on both sites.

J.D. Davis is a right-handed third baseman with a WRC+ 27% above average in 2020 with a .278/.383/.426 slash against same-handed pitching. Dominic Smith is having a breakout year hitting cleanup for this team. The lefty first baseman costs just $4,700 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel despite his .358/.395/.679 slash and WRC+ 83% above average against right-handed pitchers this season.

Robinson Cano, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil would make a quality three-man stack on their own from late in this lineup. With an average cost of less than $4,200, the trio is at a discount for their upside. McNeil for just $3,400 on DraftKings and $2,900 in particular is very interesting. McNeil has 112 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season with a WRC+ 61% above average and a .347/.420/.551 slash and a .204 ISO. Cano has five home runs and a .337/.373/.526 slash on the season. Alonso has struggled in 2020 but has a .241 ISO and a WRC+ 17% above average in the split this season.

Andres Gimenez hits from the left side of the plate and has provided some quality in his 119 opportunities this season. His WRC+ 7% above average and seven stolen bases are a good value for just $3,500 on DraftKings, and he’s basically free upside at $2,300 on FanDuel. Wilson Ramos is a mix-and-match option depending on his ownership at catcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros – Astros – 1-2-4-5-6 – Springer – Altuve – Bregman – Tucker – Correa

The Diamondbacks are throwing the “Weekend at Bernie’s” version of Madison Bumgarner at one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. This could be a bloodbath. The starter simply has nothing left. We talked about Bumgarner’s struggles with the home run before his last outing, and he promptly gave up two more in his 5.1 innings. Over his last five starts, Bumgarner has allowed two home runs four times. In the fifth start in the sample he gave up a whopping four homers. Dating to the start of last season, the Astros active roster is second in baseball with a .228 ISO and first with a WRC+ 28% above average.

Naturally, the Astros are bending my home run model. The team has a significant amount of power from top to bottom against lefties. Things get started quickly with George Springer who is carrying the team’s highest home run mark in my model. He’s also got a very strong projection for MLB DFS points, given his 11 home runs in 191 plate appearances and WRC+ 28% above average. Springer is an excellent option at just $4,700 on DraftKings.

Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley are both less expensive than they should be, as is Alex Bregman at $4,800. The trio costs an average of just over $4,200, which makes them one of the more affordable key parts of a stack on the entire slate. Depending on ownership that trio could make a great three-man stack on its own. Since the start of 2019, Altuve has a WRC+ 45% above average to go with his .286 ISO and .292/.351/.577 slash. Bregman has a .354/.447/.722 slash with a .369 ISO and WRC+ 104% above average.

Kyle Tucker and Carlos Correa continue the discounted pricing on both sites. On FanDuel, Correa is all the way down to $2,600, while he’s still at $4,200 on DraftKings, where he’ll likely be less popular. The shortstop is up to a .270/.339/.385 slash but still has just a .115 ISO on the year. Tucker has had far more success driving the ball overall, as can be seen in his .275 ISO and nine home runs.

Aledmys Diaz, as EMac pointed out on today’s Live Before Lock, is a killer against same-handed pitchers. In this case, he’ll be facing a southpaw, for at least a short part of the game. After Bumgarner is chased, Diaz could see some right-handed pitching. Since the start of 2019, Diaz is far better with a WRC+ 27% above average against right-handed pitchers as opposed to his 19% below average against southpaws.

The bottom of the lineup will throw Josh Reddick and Martin Maldonado at Bumgarner. Reddick handles lefties relatively well for his career, he’s striking out just 18.7% of the time against lefties, with a .155 ISO and a WRC+ just seven percent below average. Maldonado is a mix and match catcher play depending on his ownership, similar to the Mets’ Ramos. I wouldn’t mind letting their popularity dictate which I have more, if both are under-owned I can get to fair shares of both.

HR Call: Hunter Renfroe (Rays)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.