With a shorter MLB DFS slate, we have less to choose from but a few bigger favorites in the stacks tool. Several big teams are pulling heavy ownership. Thus, it should create some good opportunities for under-owned, quality teams in the middle.
Last night’s teams from Quick Hits are two of the top selections on the day. Both the Astros and Cubs will be popular, the Cubs explosively so. We’ll need to unearth some good options to combine with the two big pricey teams to get different enough to win.
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Stack Slants
Cincinnati Reds – 1-5 – Votto – Castellanos – Davidson – Suarez – Ervin
The Reds are ranked in the top five stacks on both sites and their ownership is the lowest of those teams. Their popularity is trending below their probability of being the top stack. The team is matched up against veteran southpaw Brett Anderson. The pitcher has been mostly injured the last few seasons, though he did throw 176 innings for the Athletics in 2019, his highest total in four seasons. His ERA for the year was a respectable 3.89, but his 4.79 xFIP tells more of the true tale. Anderson sits in the bottom third of everything in quality contact numbers so far in 2020 and strikes out just 16% of hitters. The Reds should have a field day putting the ball in play here.
The Reds are a team we’ve covered a few times, but the lineup seems to look different each time. This iteration of the projected lineup has Joey Votto and his still-incredible on-base tool hitting atop the lineup. Leadoff Votto has under-performed in 2020, reaching base in just five of his 24 plate appearances. For his career leading off, Votto has reached base just 25 times in 94 plate appearances. This is a very small sample for a hitter that is objectively good in this skill, so it’s likely to be noise. Votto makes a good option hitting in front of some of his slugger teammates here. The price is definitely right at just $2,900 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings.
Following Votto with a lefty on the hill will be Nicholas Castellanos, Matt Davidson and Eugenio Suarez. The last of whom should need no introduction to anyone who has played MLB DFS the last couple seasons. If you’ve been trapped under something heavy all this time, Suarez is a world-beater of a third baseman who powered his way to 49 home runs in his 662 plate appearances in 2019, perhaps the pinnacle of his steady career power climb. So far in 2020 he’s disappointed at just .149/.282/.310 with four homers and a WRC+ 36% below average.
Hopefully, this is keeping the public away. I’ll take as much Suarez as I can get in Reds stacks. Castellanos is another name that should be familiar at this point. The former Tiger is having an excellent and unexpected start in the power department so far, with nine home runs in his 108 plate appearances coming into action on Monday. Davidson is another Reds player with above a .200 ISO projection. Davidson is still working his way back after missing all of 2019. He hit 26 homers in 2017 and 20 in 2018, in under 500 plate appearances both years. The right-hander has three home runs in 27 plate appearances so far this season and should be hitting cleanup at just $3,100 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings.
Phil Ervin is another inexpensive right-handed Reds bat who can generate some power here. Ervin has a career .204 ISO and a WRC+ 24% above league average against lefties for his career, with seven home runs in just 218 plate appearances. Ervin has just 36 plate appearances so far in 2020. The platoon specialist has not exactly been productive yet, but I can definitely roster him at $2,400 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings. Fellow outfielder Jesse Winker has been inept so far in his career against same-handed pitchers. As good as he is against right-handed starters, Winker has just a .190/.311/.289 slash with a .099 ISO and a WRC+ 33% below average in the split.
We can work with Curt Casali and Freddy Galvis as mix-and-match options on the back end of this lineup, though I’m not sure there’s much in the bat of Kyle Farmer and his .139 ISO projection for the season. Even at the bare minimum, Farmer is not much more than roster filler. Casali and Galvis are around replacement-level players who can provide the infrequent big score for MLB DFS owners in an unexpected spot. Galvis has sneakily managed five home runs in his 84 plate appearances in 2020 after hitting 23 in 2019 and could be an underrated shortstop option tonight.
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Los Angeles Angels – 2-3-4-5-7 – La Stella – Trout – Rendon – Pujols – Upton
The Angels are in Houston to take on Framber Valdez and the Astros, and I like their chances to put up a good score here. We touched on the other side of this game in Quick Hits, and the Astros look spectacular tonight. I think we could see a big game, though. Valdez does a good job keeping the ball in the yard but yields far too many opportunities via the walk. For his career Valdez has a 12.4% walk rate over his 139 innings. The young starter also sits at the bottom of some quality of contact categories. He’s in the 13th percentile of exit velocity and hard hit rate allowed.
The Angels can throw a ton of patient professional hitters at a kid who is prone to walks. I think they’ll create some early opportunities, and we could see the Astros tap their bullpen early. The team ranks among the top options on both sites in the stacks tool. Plus, they’re not drawing the popularity they should be.
The Angels lead things off with David Fletcher and Tommy La Stella up top. Of the two, La Stella offers the better ability to create his own points with his bat. He’s at .269/.361/.452 with three home runs, while Fletcher is at .306/.372/.455. LaStella’s WRC+ is 26% above average and Fletcher’s is currently sitting 30% above. These are two excellent options to plug in above the known sluggers in this lineup. At just $6,300 for the pair on FanDuel, they look better than at $9,400 for the pair on DraftKings. However, I would play them on either site in Angels stacks.
Everyone knows about Mike Trout. If they didn’t his rookie card wouldn’t sell for an insane $4 million. Trout is having another all-world season. The slugger is at .270/.342/.610 with 10 homers, 18 runs, 25 RBIs, a .340 ISO and a WRC+ 51% above average. Anthony Rendon is the Angels’ other superstar player this season. The slugging third baseman is sitting at .319/.451/.560 on the year. Rendon is a great option for his power as well as his ability to get on base.
Aging Albert Pujols and rookie Jo Adell occupy the next two spots in the projected lineup. Both right-handed hitters are on extreme opposite ends of their career. Pujols is one home run short of tying Willie Mays for sixth on the all-time home run list at 660, while Adell is still searching for his first big league knock. Valdez keeps the ball in the yard generally, but Adell is as good a candidate as any to hit one out if he manages to make contact. At just .196/.255/.216 over his first 55 plate appearances, that’s been an issue. Pujols I’m playing for the lineup spot and the overall bat skills rather than any real expectation of power. The prices are right on both players on both sites. These are affordable back-end options in MLB DFS stacks, not one-offs.
Justin Upton has struggled mightily in 2020. The veteran outfielder is sitting at a lowly .094/.169/.188 slash with two home runs on the season. Still, there’s proven power in the bat if he’s in the lineup, and he’s $2,400 on FanDuel and $2,700 on DraftKings. Before struggling to just 12 home runs in his 256 plate appearances in 2019, Upton had put up three straight seasons over 30 home runs and six straight over 25. His 300 career home runs rank him 10th among active players. Upton could turn on one and break a slate at very low ownership on any given night. Catcher Max Stassi is likely to join Upton in his more likely outcome, striking out three times, but is also in play from late in this lineup on DraftKings at just $3,000 filling the catcher requirement.
