Today there is a massive, full-league 15-gamer that is drawing large prize pools across the industry. The gargantuan slate has a bevy of quality pitching options and is absolutely packed with excellent stack options, including games at Coors Field and Coors Lite — the temporary home of the Blue Jays in Dunedin, Fla. — both on the slate. Getting to full team stacks is the name of the game. With this many contests, there is a better chance of seeing two teams run off and hide with their scores and offensive output, so be on top of as much of those correlated high-scoring hitters as possible. Taking random dart throws at every spot in the lineup is simply not a viable winning approach in large-field GPPs on a slate of this size. With a ridiculous wealth of DFS MLB picks between the 30 teams, there should be some titanic scores win what will hopefully be extremely interesting and enjoyable contests.
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Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home run candidates for each team.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
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Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 4.02
Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna — 6.25
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 15.39
Boston Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez — 6.96
Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 8.00
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 10.29
Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 7.19
Cleveland Indians: Eddie Rosario — 7.93
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 13.78
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 9.87
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 7.34
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 4.86
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 13.42
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 5.62
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 8.74
Milwaukee Brewers: Travis Shaw — 6.03
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 13.28
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 17.14
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 4.32
Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 7.13
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 7.09
Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 3.34
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 5.70
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 6.99
Seattle Mariners: Tom Murphy — 8.16
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 10.95
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 7.00
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 11.15
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 10.82
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 12.44
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
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On the Hill
The huge MLB DFS slate has a fantastic pool of pitchers to work with from up and down the salary spectrum on both sites tonight. The lead option appears to be the Dodgers ace Trevor Bauer in his road start against the Giants. Bauer is followed by one of Aaron Nola or Tyler Glasnow. The former is in a tough spot against Boston, while the latter will have a difficult road to hoe, taking on the Blue Jays in a minor league park. Carlos Rodon is facing the Yankees, whose power has been out but who have been striking out far less than advertised against lefties so far in 2021. Stephen Strasburg is coming back from a shoulder injury that has had him on the shelf most of the season, his longevity is very much in question in this start, Marcus Stroman is flashing a bit of potential upside in a good spot against the Marlins and Ian Anderson is very interesting taking on a Pirates lineup lacking in power. Value plays exist on both sites as well, Chris Paddack is underpriced on FanDuel in his matchup against the Mariners, while those who are willing to ride some risk on DraftKings could always look to German Marquez at a discount in a home start at Coors, though that is not a spot that is projecting well in the model or Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool.
Bauer stands out for his upside as the top overall play on the slate, and likely its most talented pitcher. He is off to a terrific start in Los Angeles, delivering on the Dodgers’ investment with a 35.5% strikeout rate, a 3.10 xFIP and a 0.75 WHIP in his 57.1 innings over nine starts. Bauer is an excellent bet to both rack up strikeouts and pitch deep into this contest. The opposing Giants have shown solid power against right-handed pitching this season, putting up a team ISO of .183 that stands tied for fifth best in baseball in the split and hitting a fourth-ranked 46 home runs against righties. They create runs overall just one percent ahead of the average, however, and they have a league-worst 28.3% strikeout rate in the split. Assuming he can miss bats that others have not, there is major upside for Bauer in this matchup.
Nola looks like a strong option at his $9,000 salary on FanDuel from a points-per-dollar perspective, and he ranks favorably on both sites. The discount on the blue site has his ownership marks pushed well ahead of what seems appropriate for such a large slate, while the pay-up at $11,600 on DraftKings is landing him as slightly underappreciated. This is a very different play across sites. Nola is facing a Red Sox team that is sixth in baseball with 43 home runs against right-handed pitching this year, first with a .194 team ISO in the split and in the middle of the league with a 23.4% strikeout rate in the split. This is not an easy spot for even a talented pitcher like Nola. Considering the park factors at play, the opposing power upside and lack of bonus strikeout potential beyond his typical 27.4% rate. Nola is a tough ask with the negative weight on FanDuel. He makes a good pay-up to be contrarian option on DraftKings.
The Braves seem to have a young gem on their hands in the form of Ian Anderson, he has a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 3.45 xFIP in his 45 innings over eight starts this season. He debuted over 32.1 innings in 2020 and posted a 29.7% strikeout rate with a 3.45 xFIP, so the numbers are tracking toward reliability somewhere in the middle. Anderson is inexpensive on FanDuel at $8,800 and much more costly at $10,500 on DraftKings, where he be less overexposed. The public is getting to the pitcher frequently, but he makes for a good option given the low salary and matchup against a Pirates lineup that struggles for power in the split. The Pirates active roster is second worst in baseball with a .120 ISO and have hit just 21 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. Anderson is in a great spot, MLB DFS players simply need to exercise caution in rostering him alongside also-popular stack options. With so many teams from which to choose bats, this should be easy enough that the ownership on the pitcher can be somewhat negated.
Two starters not gaining much ownership despite their ranking in the Top Pitchers tool are Carlos Rodon and fellow southpaw Alex Wood. They are facing the two most popular teams in baseball, organizations that also happen to feature fearsome lineups in the Yankees and Dodgers respectively. Rodon has shown flashes of hitting the heights long-ago forecast for him, starting the year with a 33.8% strikeout rate over his first 36.2 innings in six starts. He has harnessed his control, walking just 8.3% of hitters so far and dialing up a sparkling 3.21 xFIP and 0.87 WHIP. He will be taking on a Yankees lineup that has a .172 team ISO against lefties this season, ranking them 11th in baseball — a good but not Yankees-like number — while they have created runs just six percent better than average in the split. New York has hit a collective 20 home runs against southpaws, and they are loaded with right-handed power, so Rodon is in no way safe. Adding in that the Yankees have struck out just 20.7% of the time in the split this season, the overall upside for Rodon could be capped, but with minimal public ownership he is surely worth some darts in GPP play.
Wood, on the other hand, is facing a Dodgers lineup that has been very slow to find itself against lefties this year. Los Angeles lands 25th in baseball with just a .140 team ISO against left-handed pitching. They strike out 25.4% of the time in the split and have created runs nine percent worse than average while hitting just 15 home runs against southpaws, at best league average marks. Meanwhile, Wood has been quietly excellent to start the season, putting up a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 2.89 xFIP with a 0.94 WHIP. He is at a price tag that the public is simply not comfortable paying for this pitcher against this team, which makes Wood an appealingly sneaky option for MLB DFS purposes tonight.
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Coors Field
The two teams at Coors Field today are ranked at the top of the stacks board for probability of success, this should surprise absolutely no one. However, with so many games on the slate, the public ownership on both teams on both sites is somewhat difficult to swallow. While it absolutely makes sense to roster Coors bats on this slate, it could be worth the consideration of coming in under the field on the total distribution of your stack shares, dedicating more lineups to similarly ranked teams that are coming in at positive leverage instead of extreme negative marks. With so many teams on the slate, don’t only focus on park factors as the absolute deciding metric. There are good bats on both sides of the game. The Rockies are in the better spot given the pitching matchup, but the public is all over them. Putting together highly owned lineups in low owned way is possible in baseball on almost any slate, but in this case, it may not be worth the effort considering the hitters who would be rostered in that scenario. It would be better to spend on good hitters from under-owned stacks.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are visiting Dunedin to take on the Blue Jays on a ballfield that will be highlighted until the team moves to Buffalo next month. With Glasnow going for Tampa Bay, the gleam is somewhat off the Blue Jays side of this contest, but there is significant appeal in getting to Tampa Bay bats with only Anthony Kay standing between them and MLB DFS slate-breaking success. He has made three starts this season, completing 13.2 innings and striking out 25.8% of hitters with a 4.17 xFIP and a bumpy 1.54 WHIP thus far. Kay has done well with contact metrics so far, sitting in the 81st percentile of hard-hit rate allowed and the 92nd percentile of barrel rate, but he has induced just a 39th percentile chase rate in opposing hitters and generates just 10.3% swinging strikes. The Rays have disappointed in the split this season, they sit second-worst in baseball with a 31.5% strikeout rate against southpaws and they have just a .146 team ISO while creating runs 11% worse than average in the split. Still, they have hit 18 home runs against lefties, good enough for ninth-best in baseball. There is appealing power in the Rays lineup; gamers just need to fade some strikeouts and have them chase Kay early, then it becomes open season on the Blue Jays bullpen.
Randy Arozarena exploded onto the scene in the playoffs last year and he has sustained that success into the first quarter of this season. So far, Arozarena has a .283/.370/.459 triple slash in his 181 plate appearances, blasting seven home runs along the way. He has a good-not-great .176 ISO but is creating runs at a pace 40% ahead of the average given the strong on-base skills and hit tool. Arozarena may not hit the 40 home runs many overexcited season-long players were hoping for, but for MLB DFS he makes a strong option at just $3,500 on FanDuel and he is still the most popular of the Rays’ bats at $5,000 on DraftKings.
Assuming Austin Meadows is in the starting lineup, he should be considered despite the lefty-lefty opening to this contest. For his career, Meadows has a .249 ISO against righties, but he has a still excellent .209 mark against same-handed pitching. He does trail off with the hit tool and on-base skills in the split, putting up just a .245/.304/.454 as opposed to the .279/.358/.528 he boasts against the opposite hand. Meadows strikes out at nearly a 29.5% rate against southpaws but just 21.5% and walking 10.2% of the time against righties. He is certainly not as good, but with public ownership low, gamers can focus on the still-reliable power upside. If Manuel Margot is in this spot. He is a less appealing option despite the platoon splits. Margot has just a .236/.270/.379 slash with four home runs and a .143 ISO this season and has never ascended to similar heights as his teammate. Margot would be appealing higher in the lineup, but he can be included in stacks if he appears later in the lineup as well.
Yandy Diaz is likely to see first base duties against Kay, though some sources are forecasting Ji-Man Choi, a lefty, for the start. Diaz has a .280/.401/.329 slash with just a .049 ISO and zero home runs. He is not much of a power bat, though he did hit 14 home runs in 347 plate appearances in 2019. Diaz has more appeal as an engine for this team than he does as a big power option, but he can be included in stacks, depending on the confirmed lineup. Choi struggles mightily against fellow lefties, managing just a .103 career ISO in the split and creating runs 34% worse than average, it would be surprising to get him here.
Brandon Lowe is a lefty power bat for this team that most likely will be in the lineup no matter what. Lowe is typically one of the team’s better hitters. He costs $5,100 on DraftKings, the most expensive mark on this team, while he is affordable at only $3,200 and with second base and outfield eligibility on FanDuel. Lowe is one of the team’s leading options in the home run model. Though he is off to just a .197/.300/.374 start to his season, he has hit seven home runs in his 170 opportunities, posting a .177 ISO. For his career, Lowe maintains a .212 ISO against fellow lefties, a mark that compares favorably to his .245 against righties. He is strong in the split, though he does strike out at a whopping 38.2% clip.
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Catcher Mike Zunino has had a great run to start 2021. He has always been an excellent power option as an all-or-nothing play, and he has delivered with 10 home runs in just 100 plate appearances this season. Zunino projects as the team’s top home run play on the slate, though he is also a concerning risk for numerous strikeouts any time he is included. The play is strong across both sites given the total lack of ownership, the minor league fences and the positioning and pricing. Zunino is very much in play, more so if he is pushed up the Rays lineup to elevate a right-handed power bat.
Willy Adames has made 142 plate appearances this season, going .197/.254/.371 in the split, while hitting five home runs and putting up a .174 ISO. He has created runs 22% worse than average this season but is in play given a $2,200 price tag on FanDuel and a $2,900 mark on DraftKings. This is elevating his popularity at the valuable shortstop position, which could be an interesting reason to skip over Adames if he lands late in the lineup for the Rays tonight. Adames is not overly popular, but as he crests 10.0% public ownership — likely higher if considering only stacks — he loses potential appeal. Adames has decent power upside. He hit 20 home runs in 584 plate appearances in 2019 and eight in just 205 chances last season, but an undercut of the field’s mark is a sharp consideration.
Edit: Adames was just traded to Milwaukee a few minutes ago. That said, it is unlikely that highly touted prospect Wander Franco will make his debut, and he is not included on the slate.
Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier seems another name likely to land somewhere near the bottom of what the Rays roll out tonight. Kiermaier is another inexpensive low-owned lefty on this squad. He has made 87 plate appearances this season, going .244/.322/.321 with a weak .077 ISO while creating runs 13% worse than average. He is just a .249/.299/.366 hitter with a .117 career ISO against lefties, while he has created runs 17% worse than average and struck out 25.0% of the time in the split. Kiermaier is more in the Rays lineup for his defense than he should be in stacks for his offense. He is worth a limited number of dice rolls only from an “any given slate” perspective.
HR Call: Nelson Cruz — Minnesota Twins
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.
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