UFC DFS Picks: UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov

Welcome back, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 13-fight card in Las Vegas including a main event between Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for MMA DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some DraftKings and FanDuel UFC DFS picks and analysis for UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs. Volkov.

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MMA DFS: UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs. Volkov

Michael Johnson $8,800 vs. Clay Guida $7,400

Michael Johnson

Age: 34
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 73.5 ins.
Record: 20-16-0
Striking Accuracy: N/A
Betting Odds: -225

Johnson will be attempting to snap a three-fight losing skid. However, the veteran does have wins over Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson and Edson Barboza. He has eight wins via knockout, two via submission and nine via decision, but he has not won since October of 2018, where he won via decision over Artem Lobov. He still has fast hands with big power that can knock out his opponent with one shot. Johnson will be ready to make a statement while looking for that one-shot knockout in the first round.

Clay Guida

Age: 39
Height: 5-foot-6
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 70 ins.
Record: 35-17-0
Striking Accuracy: 33%
Betting Odds: +180

Guida is coming in off a two-fight losing skid. His most recent loss was against Bobby Green back in June 2020, where he lost via decision. He has seven wins via knockout, 13 via submission and 14via decision. He has been an entertaining fighter throughout his career, and he had one of the most memorable fights against Diego Sanchez. Although Guida lost the fight via decision, both fighters went to war with a barrage of punches and kicks. Guida is probable edging close to end of his career. That said, look for an extremely entertaining fight between these two men.

My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Johnson, as he should test the chin of Guida early and often.

UFC DFS Pick: Michael Johnson via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Carlos Diego Ferreira $8,200 vs. Beneil Dariush $8,000

Carlos Diego Ferreira

Age: 36
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins
Record: 17-2-0
Striking Accuracy: 37%
Betting Odds: -120

Ferreira is currently riding a six-fight winning streak, including a second-round stoppage over Anthony Pettis back in January 2020. He is looking to move up in the rankings, as he is currently ranked 10th in the lightweight division. He has three wins via knockout, seven via submission and seven via decision. This will be the second time facing Dariush; their first meeting was back in 2014, and Dariush won via unanimous decision. That said, Ferreira will be looking for revenge because Dariush’s win ended Ferreira’s undefeated record at the time. This should be an exciting fight with a lot of fireworks, and Ferreira should be focused and extremely motivated.

Beneil Dariush

Age: 31
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 72 ins.
Record: 19-4-1
Striking Accuracy: 49%
Betting Odds: +100

Dariush is currently riding a five-fight winning streak, including a win via knockout over Scott Holtzman back in August 2020. He has five wins via knockout, eight via submission and wins via submission. Dariush will be looking to keep his winning streak going. However, it will not be easy facing Ferreira this time around, as he his getting a more well-rounded and highly motived Ferreira in this fight. Dariush will look to keep this a striking battle, as this would be his best path to victory.

My lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Ferreira. His motivation to move up the rankings will steal a decision away from Dariush.

UFC DFS Pick: Carlos Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision.

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Cory Sandhagen $9,400 vs. Frankie Edgar $6,800

Cory Sandhagen

Age: 28
Height: 5-foot-9
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 70 ins.
Record: 13-2-0
Striking Accuracy: N/A
Betting Odds: -400

Sandhagen is coming in of an impressive knockout victory over Marlon Moraes back in October 2020, and Aljamain Sterling handed Sandhagen his first upset in the bantamweight division back in June 2020. Before the meeting with Sterling, Sandhagen was on a four-fight winning streak in the bantamweight division. He has five wins via knockout, three via submission and three via decision. He will be looking to keep his winning streak against Edgar, although it will not be an easy win for him. Sandhagen will try to bully Edgar while testing the chin of the veteran early.

Frankie Edgar

Age: 39
Height: 5-foot-5
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 68 ins.
Record: 23-8-1
Striking Accuracy: 40%
Betting Odds: +310

Edgar looked rejuvenated with an impressive win over Pedro Munhoz back in August 2020. This was the third time in Edgar’s career that he dropped to another division, although it looks like he has found his new home. Sandhagen will be a solid test for Edgar, and if Edgar pulls off the upset, then it feels like he deserves a title shot. He has seven wins via knockout, four via submission and 13 wins via decision. Edgar will be focused and determined to make a statement in this fight, although I do not think Edgar’s chin will be able to withstand Sandhagen’s power.

My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Sandhagen. He will be motivated to welcome Edgar to the bantamweight division by testing Edgar’s chin early and often.

UFC DFS Pick: Cory Sandhagen via Second-Round KO/TKO .

Alistair Overeem $8,600 vs. Alexander Volkov $7,600

Alistair Overeem

Age: 40
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 265 lbs.
Reach: 80 ins.
Record: 47-18-0
Striking Accuracy: 73%
Betting Odds: -185

Overeem is coming in riding a two-fight winning streak with knockout wins over Walt Harris and Augusto Sakai. Overeem is an elite striker, and he throws dangerous and nasty elbows that he used very effectively in his last fight against Sakai. He has 25 wins via knockout, 17 via submission and five via decision. Overeem is looking to make one more run at the title before he walks away for the Octagon. Expect him to be focused for this fight because a win over Volkov should shoot Overeem into title consideration.

Alexander Volkov

Age: 32
Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 250 lbs.
Reach: 80 ins.
Record: 32-8-0
Striking Accuracy: 60%
Betting Odds: +155

Volkov is coming into this matchup having won two out of his last four fights, including his most recent knockout against Walt Harris. He has 21 wins via knockout, three via submission and eight via decision. Volkov is one of the tallest men in the division, and he absolutely uses his height to his advantage over his competition. However, Volkov will be at a disadvantage against Overeem’s ground game and takedown offense. Volkov will look to keep this fight standing while looking to keep distance and avoid the dangerous clinch of Overeem.

My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Overeem. He will use his nasty clinch to set up takedowns and wear Volkov down while using his nasty ground and pound to finish Volkov.

UFC DFS Pick: Alistair Overeem via Third-Round KO/TKO.

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