NASCAR DFS Drydene 311 (Sunday) Picks for DrafKings and FanDuel

Following Denny Hamlin‘s victory on Saturday, the field is set for Sunday’s Drydene 311. Therefore, let’s parse through this inverted and calculated field and breakdown the top NASCAR DFS plays for Sunday’s race at Dover.

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Lessons Learned From Past Double-Headers

While we can’t in honesty compare either of Pocono or Michigan to Dover, there were lessons we can apply for Sunday’s race. First off, the drivers who performed well today are the ones who should headline your lineups for Sunday. We saw at Pocono the duo of Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin compete for the win on Saturday and then repeat that dance on Sunday. At Michigan, the story on Saturday was about Kevin Harvick and the book repeated itself on Sunday. Thus, the drivers who excelled today are probably the foundation pillars you build around for tomorrow.

Second, don’t overvalue the drivers who finished 21st or worse. The drivers you want to target finished in the back half for a reason and most likely are going to back up cars. Don’t assume the backup rolls off the truck just as fast as the primary.

Off the Wall NASCAR DFS Game Theory for DraftKings

Speaking of lessons learned from past doubleheaders, we have to give serious credence to one of these inverted drivers becoming an unlikely dominator. The dominoes fell in the right order for Clint Bowyer at Michigan and he ended up leading the 2nd most laps that day. Had he not fallen back into the teens, late in that race, his dominator points would have made him optimal. The exact same thing happened in the Wednesday night Charlotte race to Bowyer.

Matt DiBenedetto 1st ($6,800 DraftKings) – In an initial drag race between the Penske powered #21 and Ryan Newman‘s Roush machine, I’ll go with DiBenedetto. At $6800, you don’t need much in the way of laps led/ fastest laps for DiBenedetto to pay off. Just as long as he finishes no worse than 13th.

Aric Almirola 4th ($9,000 DraftKings) – Almirola is not in play for FanDuel and he’s almost too expensive for DraftKings. However, he’s the best driver in the best equipment from the first 3 rows. At his price point, you need Almirola to lead 1/6 or more of the race. Something he’s capable of doing. All he needs to do is beat DiBenedetto, Newman, and Ty Dillon off the punch.

Others; Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick

Dominators with Place Differential

These are the drivers who will form the pillars of your roster tomorrow. Not only do these drivers offer place differential, due to their inversion. These are also the most likely to lead the majority of the 311 laps. It’s those dominator points that will make or break these drivers with their place differential all being so similar.

Denny Hamlin 20th ($13,000 FanDuel, $10,600 DraftKings) – Early on it was easy to see that Hamlin was the class of the field. After taking the lead from Austin Dillon in stage 1, Hamlin would go on to lead 115 laps and eventually win the race late. Now he takes this same car from the 20th starting position. Not to mention, he is cheaper than 4 out of the 5 drivers who start in front of him. Whether cash or tournament, DraftKings or FanDuel, Hamlin should be where lineups start.

Where you go past Hamlin is really up for debate. You can jam in 2 more of Martin Truex Junior, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, or Chase Elliott giving you a “stars and scrubs” build. Or you could opt for some balance and choose just 1 of that foursome and then save salary with Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano. Regardless, I believe you need at least 1 of those other 4 paired with Hamlin to give yourself 2 potential dominators.

If you play 3, whether on DK or FD, you have to ask does that 3rd lap leader gain enough dominator points to pair with their place differential to pay off. Much like the debate, we had earlier with Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch at their salaries for Saturday.

Cash Place Differential Plays

Kurt Busch 28th ($10,300 FanDuel, $8,300 DraftKings) – the victim of circumstance, i.e. Erik Jones, Busch found himself out of the race after just 7 laps. Now he starts 28th and truly has the best place differential floor of anyone. Be aware that he is going to the rear since he’s changing cars. However, he should have no issue moving around the flotsam starting 31st through 40th and then marching on to the teens.

Corey Lajoie 30th ($3,500 FanDuel, $5,500 DraftKings) – Hello darkness my old friend. I ranted and raved about Lajoie’s salary on the live show and he ended up finishing where he started. Well, it’s time to go back to the well. Not because he necessarily impressed me. In fact, he may be thinking too much about his impending free agency now that we know he’s not returning to the #32 in 2021. This is a price point play. He’s got place differential and he’s the cheapest viable driver you can play in cash.

Others; William Byron, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Ryan Preece

GPP Place Differential Options

Something I noted in Saturday’s live show was moving your player pool a little higher up the grid for tournaments. You were going to have to punt regardless but the rest of your non-dominators could be drivers starting in the high single-digits or low teens. If you used that strategy with Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, or Erik Jones then you probably found some low-owned edge. I believe the same train of thought applies for Sunday, pivot off the place-differential chalk, and use these drivers starting too far forward for most player’s taste.

Tyler Reddick 8th ($7,800 FanDuel, $6,500 DraftKings) – You know what’s scary about Tyler Reddick? Starting 8th he seemingly has nowhere to go forward but everywhere to go in reverse. Thus, when looking in this price range, most will play the safer Matt Kenseth, Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace, or John Hunter Nemechek. However, Reddick showed that he has access to something those 4 don’t, a ceiling.

Reddick can easily just hang around the 10th position all day and outscore everyone near his price range with finishing position points. Furthermore, with the main dominators behind him initially, don’t be shocked if Reddick ascends to the lead early on.

Clint Bowyer 15th ($9,700 FanDuel, $8,200) – Bowyer is a multi-pivot, off both Alex Bowman and Kurt Busch. Both of whom should be starting at the back with backup cars carrying much more ownership. Credit to Bowyer, he built off his strong finish at Daytona last week to post his first back to back top-10 finishes since Pocono. Now he’s poised to build off that and cement his playoff spot going into Daytona.

Good luck tomorrow everyone!

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com